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MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements.
Key Points:
Current Situation:
First Round of Elections:
Next WeekÂ’s NFP Print:
Conclusion:
MUFG highlights that the French elections and the June NFP print will be crucial events for EUR/USD. Strong performances by RN & NPF could push EUR/USD towards 1.0500, while better-than-expected results from centrists could support modest EUR gains. The current 1.0% risk premium suggests that markets are already pricing in some degree of political risk, but the actual election results will likely dictate the direction of EUR/USD in the coming week.
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