December 19, 2024 20:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Details:
Contributors and subtractors to growth:
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 20:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The weekly data dips back to the downside after the spike higher last week. It seems the data might be impacted by the calendar or other external factors causing some volatility in the short term.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 20:30 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The Fed cut rates, BUT they took back 2 of 4 cuts expected in September (only expect 2 cuts in 2025). As a result, the market is only pricing in an 8% chance of a cut in January and only 35 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025 (even more hawkish than the Fed).
The US stocks moved sharply lower yesterday:
Add the fall in the Russell 2000 which fell -4.39% and it was a bad day
US yields moved higher with double-digit gains in the 2 year (Up 11.2 bps to 4.359%), and the 10 year (up 12.5 bps to 4.52%).
In trading today, the USD is mixed (and volatile), US futures are implying a higher open (S&P up 39 points, the Dow up 257, and the Nasdaq up 150 points), the US yields are mixed with the 2 year down a couple basis points and the 10 year up about 4 basis points.
The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. BOJ Ueda said:
It sounds like no rise and the USDJPY is moving higher (lower JPY) as a result.
The BOE kept rates unchanged as well. The surprise was the vote which had 3 dissenters who wanted to cut rates. That has sent the GBPUSD back lower (the USD higher) after the pair had moved higher in the early European session. Below are the main points from the BOE statement this morning.
Taking a snapshot of the major currency pairs vs the USD, the USD is higher vs the JPY by 1.34%, but lower vs the other currencies with declines of -0.53% vs the AUD –0.59% vs the CHF, -0.58% vs the CAD and -0.59% vs the NZD.
The video below outlines the technicals in play vs the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD after the fireworks over the last 18 or so hours of trading.
VIDEO IS COMING……
In other markets this morning:
On the economic calendar today,
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 20:15 Forexlive Latest News Market News
We get a trio of economic data releases at the bottom of the hour including US initial jobless claims (shown above), the Philly Fed and final Q3 GDP.
The one to focus on is claims. It caught the market off guard with a jump last week, though it looks like it was due to one-off events. The consensus is for a decline back down to 230K but a further rise would be an interesting development. Powell tilted the Fed’s focus back towards the inflation mandate yesterday and this would make for a perfect time for a rug pull on jobs, at least if you enjoy maximum chaos.
Note that this is NFP survey week as well, so the claims number could be particularly impactful.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 19:45 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Headlines:
Markets:
It was a modestly eventful session as market players dealt with two more major central bank decisions today after the Fed yesterday.
The post-Fed moves were faded somewhat with the dollar retracing gains alongside a minor bounce in US futures on the day. But after the BOJ decision earlier to keep interest rates unchanged, governor Kazuo Ueda sent a clear message that they are willing to kick the can down the road to March before hiking next.
And that sent USD/JPY running higher early on in the session from 155.50 all the way up to a high of 157.15 before settling just under 157.00 currently. Ueda’s point is that they don’t have enough information on wage trends and there is much uncertainty on Trump’s tariffs to come. Both of which will almost surely not be that much changed by January.
Outside of that though, the dollar struggled to maintain gains from yesterday as we see a retracement across the board.
EUR/USD moved up from 1.0360 to 1.0400 while USD/CAD dipped from 1.4430 to 1.4375 during the session. Even the antipodes managed a bounce with AUD/USD finding buyers at key support at 0.6200 to 0.6250 currently.
GBP/USD managed a modest bounce to 1.2660 levels before being pulled back to around 1.2630. And then we had the BOE policy decision, which saw three policymakers dissent in favour of a 25 bps rate cut – as opposed to just Dhingra. That pinned cable down to 1.2605 currently, though still up 0.3% on the day.
In other markets, European indices are down roughly by 1% across the board in catching up to Wall Street losses yesterday. That said, the selling isn’t as bad as US futures are catching a minor bounce with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.7% today. It’s still early in the day though as Wall Street is a different beast as seen several times already this week.
As for bonds, short-end yields are down slightly but the long-end continues to sell off with 10-year yields in the US now rising to 4.54%. It’s certainly something to keep an eye out for as we look towards the closing stages this week and into the new year.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 17:15 Forexlive Latest News Market News
On the bank rate vote, here’s what the calls are:
Besides Barclays’ outside call, there is more or less a general consensus expecting a 8-1 vote with Dhingra set to be the only policymaker to dissent in favour of a rate cut.
As for the central bank’s guidance, there is also a consensus is expecting the “gradual” approach to be maintained. In essence, the language will mostly be the same as per what we saw in November here.
But amid recent developments in the UK economy, the calls for next year are differing. While most are anticipating quarterly rate cuts at the moment, there are a few standouts.
Barclays is seeing that the BOE might have to readjust their pacing and “move to sequential 25bp moves in May, June, August and September, leaving the bank rate at
3.50%.. we think a majority of the committee will see this as consistent with policy being
neutral”.
Meanwhile, Deutsche sees the BOE taking it slow in the first half of next year before accelerating the pace in the second half of the year. The firm sees “three rate cuts in 2H 2025, taking
place in August, November and December.. The bank rate settling at 3.25% in Q1-26 –
broadly consistent with our view of medium-term r-star”.
As for HSBC, the firm sees rate cuts in February, May, August, September, November and December 2025
with a final cut to 3.00% in February 2026.
(h/t @ MNI – Market News)
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 16:39 ICMarkets Market News
1
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Ex-Dividends | ||
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2
|
20/12/2024 | ||
3
|
Indices | Name |
Index Adjustment Points
|
4
|
Australia 200 CFD
|
AUS200 | |
5
|
IBEX-35 Index | ES35 | |
6
|
France 40 CFD | F40 | |
7
|
Hong Kong 50 CFD
|
HK50 | |
8
|
Italy 40 CFD | IT40 | |
9
|
Japan 225 CFD
|
JP225 | |
10
|
EU Stocks 50 CFD
|
STOXX50 | |
11
|
UK 100 CFD | UK100 | |
12
|
US SP 500 CFD
|
US500 | 0.29 |
13
|
Wall Street CFD
|
US30 | |
14
|
US Tech 100 CFD
|
USTEC | 2.07 |
15
|
FTSE CHINA 50
|
CHINA50 | 27.17 |
16
|
Canada 60 CFD
|
CA60 | 0.15 |
17
|
Germany Tech 40 CFD
|
TecDE30 | |
18
|
Germany Mid 50 CFD
|
MidDE50 | |
19
|
Netherlands 25 CFD
|
NETH25 | |
20
|
Switzerland 20 CFD
|
SWI20 | |
21
|
Hong Kong China H-shares CFD
|
CHINAH | |
22
|
Norway 25 CFD
|
NOR25 | |
23
|
South Africa 40 CFD
|
SA40 | |
24
|
Sweden 30 CFD
|
SE30 | |
25
|
US 2000 CFD | US2000 | 0.1 |
The post Ex-Dividend 20/12/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
December 19, 2024 16:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Slight delay in the release by the source. There were surpluses recorded for goods (€30 billion) and services (€15 billion). That is offset by deficits for secondary income (€15 billion) and primary income (€5 billion).
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 15:45 Forexlive Latest News Market News
USD/JPY may be at the highs for the day at 156.85 but the dollar is lower against the rest of the major currencies bloc at the moment. The greenback is down around 0.3% to 0.4% across the board, so the losses elsewhere aren’t anything too significant as compared to the gains caught during the post-Fed reaction yesterday.
In the case of EUR/USD, the pair is up 0.4% to near 1.0400 but is holding just below the figure level for now with large option expiries in play as noted here. That might help keep a lid on things before we get to the US weekly initial jobless claims later.
Besides that, GBP/USD is also up 0.4% to 1.2620 and USD/CAD down 0.3% to 1.4403 currently. The latter is still seeing a meaningful breakout as it climbed to its highest levels since March 2020 yesterday. On the monthly chart there, a firm break above 1.4100 will mark a significant step in trying to push to test key resistance around 1.4500 through to 1.4600 levels next.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD is also seen up 0.3% to 0.6238 now after having run into a test of the 0.6200 level:
That is a key level on the weekly chart as seen above, having stalled the downside move back in October 2022. That said, the pair is still down 4% this month with sellers well in control amid the very light bounce on the day.
So far, it’s all just a soft retracement to the moves yesterday and we’re seeing a similar mood play out in broader markets as well.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% while gold is up 1.1% to $2,616 on the day currently. In the bond market, 2-year Treasury yields are down 2.6 bps to 4.33% but 10-year Treasury yields are holding steadier at 4.52%.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 15:00 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The French business climate falls to its lowest since July as sentiment continues to worsen for Europe’s second largest economy. Of note, employment conditions are also seen weakening further with the index there dropping to 96 from 98 previously. That also matches its softest reading since July.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 14:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
There is a slight pickup in German consumer morale going into the turn of the year but it remains at a low level historically. GfK notes that “a sustained recovery in consumer sentiment is not yet in sight, as consumer uncertainty is still too high”.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
December 19, 2024 14:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
A more hawkish Fed looks to have turned December on its head for equities. European indices look set for a sea of red in trying to catch up to the heavy losses in Wall Street yesterday. US futures are more muted today though, keeping little changed near flat levels thus far. So, that’s at least helping to not make things worse at the start of European trading.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.