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Trump’s weakness and total lack of credibility in the market will have repercussions for the next 45 months.

We’ll continue to monitor his comments and flip flops.

• I’m not concerned about escalation with China.
• I can’t imagine a further increase of tariffs on China.
• Plans to meet with Putin at some stage.

Huge jump in stocks today – a hysteric day for markets:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Trump drops reciprocal tariffs, huge market moves follow

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Luxon to visit the UK this month.

He’ll engage in trade talks with UK PM Starmer.

I need a newer pic of the NZ PM

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Pres. Trump announcement that there would be a 90 day tariff pause for some countries sent the pressured stock market sharply to the upside in the US.

The Nasdaq had it’s best day since January 3, 2001 when the index rose 14.17%. The index gained 1857.06 points or 12.16% today.

The S&P soared by 434.13 points or 9.52% . Back on March 24, 2020, the index rose 9.38%. On March 13, the index rose by 9.29%. Going back to October 28, 2008, the index rose 10.79%, and on October 13, 2008 the index rose 11.58%.

The Dow industrial average rose 2962.86 points or 7.87% to 40,608.45.

The Small-cap Russell index gained 152.45 points or 8.66% to 1913.16. That was it best day since March 24, 2020 when the index rose by 9.391%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on all but China
• Trump: China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how to go about it
• The White House says the 10% baseline tariff rate applies to Canada and Mexico
• The White House isn’t sure what tariff rates are on Canada and Mexico now
• FOMC minutes reveal growing inflation concerns and cautious stance
• US treasury auctions off $39 million of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.435%
• Fed’s Musalem sees growth this year materially below 2% trend
• Fed’s Barkin: Tariff price hikes could begin by June
• More from Fed’s Barkin. Watching consumers most closely as are biggest part of economy
• Alphabet CEO Pichai: We plan to invest around $75 billion in total In 2025
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 -2.4% versus -2.8%. Gold adjusted -0.3%
• South African rand falls to all-time low
• EIA weekly crude oil inventories +2553K vs +1421K expected
• US February wholesale sales +2.4% vs -1.3% prior
• Trump says to “be cool” as everything is going to work out well
• German coalition outlines policy agreements
• Fed’s Kashkari: The bar is higher for cutting rates due to tariffs
• Bessent: Tariff levels are a ceiling if other countries don’t retaliate
• Jamie Dimon: Stickly inflation will not go away quickly
• Fed’s Daly: We have time and space to deliberate next moves

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 9%, Nasdaq up 11.5% – SPX gain is the most since 2008
• Gold up $114 to $3098 — largest one-day gain in five years
• WTI crude oil up $3.22 to $62.80
• US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.35%
• AUD leads, CHF lags

What a day.

Coming into the day, there were some intense fears about the bond market after yields jumped in Asia in a move that was pointing to heavy financial stress and disorderly unwinds in trades. US 30-year yields briefly rose above 5% from 4.32% at the start of the week in a move that started to look like the one that led to the downfall of Liz Truss.

With that, stock futures were beaten up again and there were real fears of a crash.

That sentiment appeared to get Trump’s attention. His comments later in the day suggest he saw the bond market and comments from Jamie Dimon about a recession. He said people were scared and ‘yippie’ so he decided to pause tariffs for 90-days, save for a 10% baseline. China wasn’t so lucky as their rate was upped to 125% but even with that he later said there would be negotiations with China, highlighting that this could also be temporary.

Trump himself hinted at an easing earlier in the day saying to ‘be cool’ and that stock markets would rise. He made the announcement about the tariffs on Truth Social and that set off a huge reversal in markets and enormous stock market gains. USD/JPY rose 300 pips in a near-straight line and AUD/USD rose 150 pips.

Aside from versus the yen and Swiss franc, the US dollar sold off as global growth concerns abated.

All that said, this is just one chapter and 10% tariffs on the world and 125% on China is certainly worse than what was expected a few weeks ago. Big questions remain on whether the 10% level is now the floor and on how the US intends to complete negotiations with +70 countries within 90 days. There are plenty of indications that they’re making it all up as they go along; and that we’re all along for the ride.

For now though, the bulls get to score a major victory.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from China features today, for March 2025.

• wholesale level deflation to continue
• consumer inflation expect y/y, deflation m/m

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so.

With any luck we’ll get a few months respite from the idiocy (except that directed at China). Many, many market makers turned their machines off in the toxic political environment, hopefully we’ll see some liquidity return from now though.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The White House initially told the CBC and CNBC that the 10% tariff rate also applied to Mexico and Canada. In that case, it would have been a tariff hike. Now they’re saying that the 10% rate doesn’t apply, at least to Canada, according to the CBC.

Now we get further clarity that nothing has changed with Canada and Mexico.

So the USMCA region remains where it was before, which was no tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods, and 25% on non-compliant goods. There is also a hodge-podge of tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos (with a delay on parts).

In any case, nothing has changed here. I had assumed that something was lost in translation and it’s concerning that the White House and Bessent both got it wrong on their #2 and #3 trading partners initially. But I guess that’s the way it’s going to go.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There is a huge squeeze on shorts at the moment and a rush back into equities.

Note though that a 10% rate is still problematic rate for many countries and companies involved in trade with the the US. That said, it’s about what was expected on April 2 when Liberation Day was announced.

To get back to April 2 levels, we would need to add another 5% in the S&P 500. But I’m not sure we get all the way back there given the 125% China tariffs. That said, Trump indicated those were also negotiable so you have to price in a high probability of those coming down.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• A deal could be struck with struck with China
• People were getting a little bit afraid about tariffs
• Trump says he pulled back on many global tariffs — but not on China — because people were getting ‘yippy,’ ‘afraid’
• The 90-day pause is for the people who didn’t retaliate
• We have reversed tariffs for a short period of time
• They will be fair deals with everyone

There is a big question on what can be accomplished in 90 days. The most-recent USMCA deal — which didn’t change much from NAFTA — took 13 months to negotiate. We’re going to do that in 90 days with 75 countries.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The White House told reporters from CBN and CNBC that the new 10% tariff applied to Mexico and Canada — the US’s second and third-largest trading partners.

This is important because USMCA compliant goods are currently at 0% rates and others are at 25% based on fentanyl tariffs.

However, now others are saying the initial reports are wrong. The CBC’s Katie Simpson now reports:

Despite what we’ve heard from the White House, CBC News is learning that the initial information about the 10% baseline tariff applying to Canada may not be accurate, and Canadian officials are waiting to see the text.

We’re going to have to wait and see. I continue to assume that USMCA-covered goods will be exempted but this entire state of play is amateur-hour.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not clear what the tariff rates are on Mexico and Canada now along with whether USMCA-compliant goods continue to trade tariff free, along with auto parts.

CNBC’s Megan Casella reports:

White House says the 10% baseline tariff also applies to Canada & Mexico. It has not said whether that’s the effective new rate itself; whether it adds to the 25% fentanyl tariff, making the new rate 35%; or whether it kicks in only if the fentanyl tariff falls away

We are going to need some clarity on this. I still suspect that the USMCA rates apply but we could see CAD and MXN selling if these 10% rates apply. It would also push effective US tariff rates back up as Mexico, China and Canada account for a great deal of total US imports.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY is back to where it was in the hours after the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement in a huge turn.

The yen is dropping hard on a jump in risk assets that has the Nasdaq up nearly 10% following a Trump post saying he was dropping all global tariff rates to 10% except for China in order to have negotiations.

I would expect this momentum to continue perhaps into the weekend but there are still some big questions here on tariffs and the global economy. This still puts the effective US tariff rate at extreme levels and there are major questions about whether that 10% level is a floor.

I think that all that argues that the yen remains a valuable safe haven.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.