Articles

Pres. Trump is on social media exclaiming in all capitals:

• BALANCE BUGET NOW??? LETS GIVE IT A SHOT. LOTS OF MONEY COMIN IN FROM TARIFFS. DO IT! DJT.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EU trade chief is speaking and says:

• EU is seeking currently grounded in talks with US.
• Discussing car industry to quite an extent.
• Tariff reciprocity must work for both sides and EU ready to look at lower industrial tariffsis

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior week initial claims 213K revised to 214K
• Initial jobless claims 219K vs 215K
• 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 215.25 versus 216.25 last week
• Prior week initial jobless claims 1.850M revised to 1.845 million
• Continuing claims 1.869 vs 1.871M estimate
• 4 -week MA continuing claims 1.863M versus 1.870M last week

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.2%
• PPI y/y +5.8% vs +4.1% prior
• Raw materials price index +3.7% m/m vs +1.3% prior
• Raw materials price index +11.8% y/y vs +9.1% prior

The softening Canadian dollar has been a problem for commodity price inflation. Fortunately it’s levelled off in February.

The Bank of Canada has its hands full at the moment. Between this, the HST holiday, a looming election and tariff threats, there is so much noise.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 44.3 (the expectation was for -5.2….The result may have been influenced by the election)
• Manufacturing index for February xx.x vs 20.0 estimate

Details:

• 6 month index 27.8 vs 46.3 last month.
• Capex index 6-month forward 14.0 vs 39.0 last month
• employment 5.3 vs 11.9 last month
• Prices paid 40.5 vs 31.9 last month
• New Orders 21.9 vs 42.9 last month
• Shipments 26.3 versus 41.0 last month.
• Unfilled orders 1.4 versus 24.0 last month
• delivery time 12.4 versus 6.8 last month.
• Inventories -0.4 versus 11.7 last month.
• Average workweek 2.9 versus 20.5 last month.

For 6 month forward:

• New orders 33.1 versus 57.3 last month.
• Shipments 36.5 versus 60.2 last month
• unfilled orders 11.0 versus 14.5 last month.
• Delivery times -1.2 versus 0.5 last month.
• Inventories 16.4 versus 20.2 last month.
• Prices paid 50.6 versus 67.3 last month
• prices received 46.1 versus 53.6 last month
• employment 23.7 versus 40.4 last month
• average workweek 11.6 versus 14.9 last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -0.1%

There is growing worry about the health of the Canadian housing market, particularly in Ontario. Listings are surging despite poor, snowy weather and there haven’t been the sales to match. The condo market is a disaster in Toronto but it’s not clear if the pain will spread beyond that. The spring market will be key.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning from snowy, frozen Canada.

We have a four-pack of economic data releases due at the bottom of the hour:

• Initial jobless claims
• Philly Fed
• Canadian PPI
• Canadian new housing price index

There has been some hand-wringing about pricing numbers in the regional Fed manufacturing surveys but the main release to watch is initial jobless claims, which are expected at 215K from 213K prior. In the Philly Fed, expect tariff worries and front-running of possible costs to be a big skew.

Later we get weekly oil inventories, a 30-year TIPS auction and comments from the Fed’s Goolsbee at 935 pm ET and Musalem at 12:05 pm ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY heavy, eyes test of 150.00 level
• Gold homes in on the $3,000 mark
• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• BOE odds hardly changed after the UK CPI report yesterday
• ECB’s Simkus: I agree with expectations of 3 more cuts in 2025
• PBOC says will step up analysis of macro economic and financial work
• US Treasury secretary Bessent: I don’t want others to manipulate their currencies
• Germany January PPI -0.1% vs +0.6% m/m expected
• Switzerland January trade balance CHF 6.12 billion vs CHF 3.49 billion prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 2.6 bps to 4.509%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,944.97
• WTI crude up 0.1% to $72.29
• Bitcoin up 1.2% to $97,446

There wasn’t too much action in European trading today, with the dollar settling a little lower no thanks to a potential downside break in USD/JPY.

The pair was already down to around 151.30 coming into the session before briefly nudging under the crucial 150.00 mark. Price action is still keeping just above the figure level but the downside pressure is growing and that could weigh on the dollar on a broader scale if the break runs.

There wasn’t any major headline catalyst for the move but as outlined in the linked post above, one can’t ignore the continued rise in JGB yields as a plausible factor.

Besides that, the dollar remains slightly softer in general as traders await more trade and geopolitical developments involving Trump. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0440 and GBP/USD up 0.1% to 1.2600 on the day. Despite US futures keeping lower, commodity currencies are holding their own with USD/CAD down 0.1% to 1.4215 and AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.6370.

Overall, the moves aren’t anything to shout about but it makes for some added push and pull on the week at least.

In other markets, European stocks are looking for a minor bounce back following yesterday’s slump. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are lower and that’s not helping with the mood in USD/JPY as well.

In the commodities space, gold is off earlier highs of $2,954 but remains poised for an eighth straight week of gains. $3,000 incoming?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• US has a strong dollar policy
• But don’t want others to manipulate their currencies
• China’s yuan is hard to value
• But on any academic model, the yuan is cheap
• Aims to tell China to rebalance their economy
• Will have first call with China counterpart tomorrow
• Revaluing gold reserves is not what I had in mind
• Haven’t seen Europe cut auto tariffs yet

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• I agree with expectations of 3 more cuts in 2025.
• The direction of travel is clear.
• Next move is clear.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The precious metal is trading up today to record highs, seen at $2,953 at the moment. It is now poised for another week of gains and that will make it eight on the trot to start the new year. The latest gains are coming as the dollar is also slightly weaker but amid persisting geopolitical tensions and central bank buying, it’s hard to find a case against gold still.

The next target? The $3,000 mark of course. That’s the big one in terms of a psychological barrier for the precious metal.

After having touched the previous big one of $2,000 during the Covid pandemic, gold struggled to really break the shackles until last year. That’s a lengthy period of bouncing around in the last few years before finally catching fire.

Will this time be different though?

I have a feeling it might. As is the case since last year, the only argument I have against gold is purely a technical one.

The rise to where we are now has been breathtaking and really one-sided in terms of momentum. That argues for a correction of sorts but we’ve not got that whatsoever until now.

Besides that, the same conditions are all lining up for gold with major central banks still easing policy (albeit more slowly) and Trump is still doing his thing on the global stage – stirring up uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Then, you still have major central banks – China in particular – still stocking up on gold reserves. And that’s a big plus point as well.

I wouldn’t rule out a good bout of profit taking upon hitting $3,000. But if we easily shoot past that, we might see gold touch $3,100 or $3,200 before the next real pullback.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 21/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.