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GEOPOLITICS:

• Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says Ukraine is ready for strong and useful agreement with US on investments and security.
• Ukraine offered the fastest and constructive way for this.
• Ukraine is ready for 24/7 work on this

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Israal Palestinian geopolitics, US middle East envoy Witkoff is on wires saying:

• Trump Gaza plan is not an eviction plan for Palestinians.
• Trump plan is about shaking up everyone’s thinking, doing what is best for the Palestinian people
• On Trumps plan, do Palestinians want to live there, or do they want to settle in a better place with better prospects.
• Conversation has changed from just focusing on land, to how we get better life for people.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Crude oil 4.633M vs estimate of 3.144M.
• Gasoline -0.151M vs estimate of -0.006M
• Distillates -2.051M vs -1.634M estimate
• Cushing _1.472M vs a gain of 0.872M last week.

The private data released late yesterday showed:

Crude oil is trading at $72.75 adds up $0.66 or 0.92%

The

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The worst performer is UK’s FTSE 100. The best performer is Spain’s Ibex. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX -93.10 points or -0.42% at 22340.54.
• France’s CAC +12.04 points or 0.15% at 8122.59.
• UK’s FTSE 100 -49.56 points or -0.57% at 8662.98.
• Spain’s Ibex +37.70 points or 0.29% at 12967.09.
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -99.13 points or -0.26% at 38249.02.

As London/European traders had for the exits, the major US indices are lower:

• Dow industrial average -632.92 points or -1.42% at 43994.23. Walmart -6.20%, Goldman Sachs -4.72%, J.P. Morgan -4.21%, American Express -3.13%, and Boeing -2.9% are responsible for most of the declines.
• S&P index after closing at a record level he answers down -53 points or -0.86% at 6091.09.
• NASDAQ index is down -177 points or -0.88% at 19879.
• Russell 2000 is down -29.31 points or -1.30% at 2252.98.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower:

• 2-year 4.257%, -1.7 basis points
• 5 year 4.341%, -2 point basis points.
• 10 year 4.505%, -3.0 basis points
• 30 year 4.742%, -2.1 basis points

At 12 PM, the EI a weekly energy inventory levels will be released with crude stocks expecting a build of 3.144 million. Gasoline stocks are expected to be unchanged while distillates are expected a drawdown of -1.634 million.

At 12:05 PM, St. Louis Fed Musalem is scheduled to speak.

At 2 PM, RB and the governor is to testify before Parliamentary select committee .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major US stock indices are moving lower today. The NASDAQ index and Dow industrial are now down 1%. The S&P index is down -0.84%. The S&P index closed at a record level yesterday. So it is not all bad, but the declines are worth monitoring.

Looking at the hourly chart of the S&P, the last price highs did not run very much. The topside trend line did a decent job of stalling the break to new highs yesterday. Today, the price is looking toward the rising 100 hour MA at 6068.53. A break below that MA today/going forward is a modest negative in the short-term technically. THe 200 hour MA at 6022. 91 would also need to be broken to increase the bearish bias. There have been some dips to the 200 hour MA that did find support buyers (see chart below).

In geopolitics, a press conference with Ukraine between Zelenskiy and Trumps envoys was canceled after their meeting. Yesterday Pres. Trump called Zelenskiy a dictator. Trump has put a price tag for payback at $500B (maybe it is down to $350B from the tweet below). The market is not in love with the tensiion

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -14.2
• EU consumer confidence flesh estimate for February -13.6% versus -14.0 estimate

What is consistent, is the EU consumer confidence is always negative, but at -13.6 is nearer recent highs going back to 1H of 2022

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month revised higher to 0.1% from -0.1% last month
• Leading index for January -0.3% versus -0.1% estimate

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Geopolitics is a hot topic with wars and tariff balls in the air.

• Ukraine’s Zelenskiy met with US envoy Kellogg . There was no other comments from that meeting
• Russian Pres. Putin phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince. Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue to cooperate closely within the framework of OPEC+
• Israeli minister for strategic affairs is expected to meet with us envoy Witkoff to begin talks on the second phase of the Gaza hostage and cease-fire deal
• Mexico will broaden lawsuit in the US against arms manufacturers
• US commerce Sec.Lutnick says “tariffs wont cause inflation or recession”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trump:

• Greenland is needed from point of security
  Expects China’s xi to visit
  Looking at 25% tariff for
  lumber and forest products
  Going to resurrect critical mineral
  deal with Ukraine
  We can make a deal with Russia
  Says
  speaking to china on Tiktok
• Would not consider buying a plane from Airbus

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are trading lower to start the new trading day:

• Dow industrial average: 44,488.78 down -138.81 or -0.31%
• S&P index: 6,127.78 down -16.37 or 0.27%
• NASDAQ index: 20,013.86 down -42.39 or -0.21%
• Russell 2000: 2,277.7680 down -4.6898, or 0.21%

Looking at some of the stocks morning:

• Shares of Palantir are down another $8.24 or -7.45% at $103.55.
• Walmart shares are down $6.30 a -6.03% at $97.72 after reporting earnings

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 gained 0.24%, marking a record close for the index. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ posted a modest gain of 0.7%.

In late news, Palantir shares saw a sharp decline of -10.08% after President Trump directed the Pentagon to reduce defense spending by 8%. Despite Palantir’s software being seen as an efficiency investment, the stock, which had surged nearly 100% from its January 13 low to a high of $125.41 yesterday, experienced a typical pullback. As of today, Palantir shares are down an additional -3.36%, currently trading at $108.30.

A snapshot of the premarket levels implied by the futures currently shows:

• Dow industrial average -142 points
• S&P index -15 points or -0.24%
• NASDAQ index -38 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump is on social media exclaiming in all capitals:

• BALANCE BUGET NOW??? LETS GIVE IT A SHOT. LOTS OF MONEY COMIN IN FROM TARIFFS. DO IT! DJT.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.