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• Prior quarter $-266.8 billion revised to $-275.0B
• Current Account -$310.8B vs -$284.0B estimate

• Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents increased $6.0 billion to $1.21 trillion in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents increased $42.0 billion to $1.52 trillion.1

This is the largest deficit.

This is a drag on growth but it’s inevitable in an outperforming economy. Is it influenced by a Trump presidency and expected tariffs?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 1.356m
• Starts -1.8% vs -3.1% prior
• Building permits 1.505m vs 1.430m expected
• Permits % vs -2.9% prior

Home builders have been some of the worst-performers since the election on inflation and high-rate fears. With a number like this, I don’t imagine today will be any better, though the single-family numbers here are more-promising than the headline suggests.

On the starts side:

• Single-family starts rose 6.4% to 1.011M
• Multi-family starts plunged 24.1% to 264,000

On the permits side:

• Single-family permits edged up 0.1% to 972,000
• Multi-family permits (5+ units) surged 22.1% to 481,000

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is little changed with the DXY index down marginally. THe change in the USD vs the EUR, CAD, GBP is less than 0.5%. The USD is higher vs the AUD (+0.25%) and the NZD (+0.33%) as those currencies continue their move lower and have each broken below key floors on their daily charts (see video from yesterday HERE).

Below is a technical kickstart video looking at the techncals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

VIDEO IS COMING

US stocks are higher after falling yesterday with the Dow up by 157 points (after 9 days of declines). The S&P futures are implying a gain of 18 points and the Nasdaq is up 66 points.

Yields are higher witht eh 2 year up 1.6 bps to 4.257% and the 10 year up 3 bps to 4.416%.

The Fed meets today and announces its interest rate decision at 2 PM ET with the expectations of a 25 basis point cut. The focus will be on the dot plot, however, and the other projections that will start the new year. For kicks and giggles, below is what the projections looked like for end of year 2024 at this time a year ago:

• For GDP, they saw 1.4%. The GDP has been stronger with 4th quarter GDP forecast to be 3.1%
• For the Unemployment rate, they projected 4.1%. It rose to 4.2% at the last report.
• For PCE inflation they forecast 2.4% for the headline and 2.4% for the Core. The most recent US PCE inflation level is 2.3% as of October 2024, while the core PCE inflation level, which excludes food and energy, is 2.8%
• They forecasted the Fed Funds rate to be 4.50% to 4.75%. or 4.60% . The Fed is expected to cut rates to 4.25% to 4.50% or 4.375%

The most recent projections from Seotember which will be revised today shows:

For 2025 in September, they see the Fed Funds rate moving down 100 bps in 2025 to 3.4%. That will be the focus today and will likely be higher.

Meanwhiler, from the ECB today in Europe, ECB’s Wunsch stated that the impact of tariffs depends on the euro’s exchange rate reaction, noting that a weaker euro would cushion the impact on growth but increase inflation. He added that if the euro reaches parity with the dollar, competitiveness losses would be limited. Wunsch expects interest rates to settle around 2%, suggesting that four rate cuts are a meaningful and comfortable scenario. On the inflation target, he emphasized that there is no appetite to change the 2% goal and highlighted that the ECB’s role is not to address political or structural challenges. Policy decisions will focus on inflation, wages, growth, and PMIs, though he noted there is no broad consensus on reacting aggressively to inflation below 2%.

The US building permits are expected to come in at 1.430 million, with housing starts expected at 1.343 million. The US current account for the Q3 is expected $-284.0 billion.

The weekly oil inventory data is expected to show a crude oil inventory drawdown of -1.635 million and a gasoline buildup 2.060 million.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• AUD/USD extends downside run, eyes on the October 2023 lows next
• ECB’s Wunsch: Impact of tariffs depends on reaction in the exchange rate
• ECB’s Wunsch: There is no appetite to change inflation target
• ECB’s Lane: It is prudent to maintain meeting-by-meeting approach
• ECB’s Lane: The argument for cutting by 50 bps was to show we are no longer restrictive
• UK November CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y expected
• Eurozone November final CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
• UK December CBI trends total orders -40 vs -19 prior
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 13 December -0.7% vs +5.4% prior
• Japan tops annual visitor record in just 11 months this year

Markets:

• EUR leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 3.5 bps to 4.420%
• Gold flat at $2,644.48
• WTI crude up 0.9% to $70.68
• Bitcoin down 1.5% to $104,842

It was a largely straightforward session as market players are all waiting on the Fed decision to get the week over and done with.

The dollar kept steadier across the board, seeing limited movement against the major currencies bloc. The antipodes were already weaker since Asia and kept at the lows with AUD/USD down to its lowest levels since October last year while NZD/USD is down to its lowest since October 2022. The downside action didn’t extend all too much though as traders are content with waiting on the Fed before taking things any further.

AUD/USD stuck around 0.6310-20 levels for the most part with NZD/USD keeping in the range of around 0.5725-40 during the session. Besides that, EUR/USD continues to hug the 1.0500 mark with large option expiries seen at the figure level today. And USD/JPY is marginally higher to 153.70 with yields ticking up a little ahead of the Fed decision later.

In the equities space, we’re seeing a steadier mood but it’s still early in the day. US futures are up but then again, they have been showing signs of early optimism through the week only to be dashed when Wall Street enters the fray. Today, there’s the Fed to contend with as well.

The FOMC meeting decision is arguably the final key risk event for broader markets, so don’t discount the potential repercussions that may follow as the year winds down after.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +5.4%
• Market index 224.0 vs 225.5 prior
• Purchase index 157.1 vs 154.9 prior
• Refinance index 617.5 vs 634.0 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.75% vs 6.67% prior

Overall mortgage applications fell in the past week but there is a mixed showing. Purchases activity were higher, recovering from the setback in the week prior but refinancing activity fell after the big surge seen in the first week of December here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -19

Ouch. That’s the biggest plunge in the order book balance since November 2020. Adding to that, the manufacturing output volume for the past three months also experienced its sharpest decline since August 2020. And for the coming three months, output expectations were the weakest since May 2020. It’s not a good sign as the economic slowdown begins to take a toll on the UK manufacturing sector.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The drop this week is continuing after the break under the August low of 0.6347. That is leading the pair to fall to its lowest levels this year with the low today touching 0.6305. We are seeing price action keeping thereabouts now, with eyes on the October 2023 lows of 0.6270-01 next.

For today, the technical selling is persisting but we’re yet to get to the main event later in the day. The FOMC meeting means that the dollar side of the equation will be the key factor influencing proceedings in the sessions ahead. That will also be a key driver in vindicating the downside break of the August low from yesterday.

If we do get a more dollar-positive reaction to the Fed, the big focus for AUD/USD is the October 2023 lows as highlighted above. If that gives way, then that will draw in the October 2022 lows near 0.6200 next.

Besides that, do be aware that the PBOC will be making their next decision on the LPRs on Friday. Market players are not expecting any changes but it’s worth noting in case for any surprises after having adjusted their policy stance to being “moderately loose” now.

That might also impact the aussie side of the equation with the yuan of course having a key influence over the past two months.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

🚀 NVDA Stock Price Prediction: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Analysis for Traders 📊

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Update | February 2025 Contract

Current Overview: NVDA Price Prediction by AI 📈

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price is rebounding strongly in pre-market, up approximately 6% from the ForexLive.com AI prediction and trade idea from yesteday for NVDA after testing key support levels. Yesterday’s failed move near 127.27 provided an opportunity for buyers to step in, and today’s price action signals renewed bullish momentum.

This NVDA price prediction by AI will focus on critical price levels, recent volumetric stats, and market behavior to assist traders and investors in navigating the current uptrend. The AI-assisted analysis outlines potential profit-taking zones, areas of retracement, and the broader outlook for NVDA stock price.

🔑 Key Levels to Watch in NVDA Stock Price Prediction

1. Primary Support Levels:

   • 128.37: Yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL)—a crucial level for maintaining the bullish case. Buyers need to defend this area if NVDA stock price prediction remains upward.
   • 126.87: Yesterday’s low—temporary pierces below 128.37 are acceptable, but price must reclaim this level quickly.

2. Pivot Zones to Monitor:

   • 129.27: Yesterday’s closing VWAP, acting as a critical intraday pivot for directional clues.
   • 130.11: Today’s Value Area Low (VAL), providing secondary support just below yesterday’s VAH.

3. Resistance and Upside Targets:

   • 132.65: Today’s VWAP—holding this level strengthens NVDA price prediction for further bullish continuation.
   • 135.03: Immediate upside target for partial profit-taking.
   • 140.13: December 11th naked Value Area High—a strong price magnet if buyers sustain momentum.
   • 139.31: December 11th POC, adding confluence to the 140 zone.

📊 Volumetric Insights for NVDA Price Prediction by AI

1. Strong Buyer Activity:

   • Recent volumetric data shows increasing buy volume and improving delta percentages, signaling aggressive buyer presence.
   • Positive Delta SL values suggest strong absorption of sell-side pressure near key supports.

2. Key Observations:

   • Buyers regained control around the 132.16 area (yesterday’s VAH), indicating commitment to the bullish case.
   • Sellers failed to maintain pressure near support, with notable weakening of negative delta readings.

3. Current Bar (Volumetric Stats):

   • Today’s VWAP at 132.65 is a pivotal level. A retracement to this level will confirm whether buyers remain in control.

AI Price Prediction for NVDA: Directional Bias Score 📈

Score: +4 (Moderately Bullish Bias)

Why?

• Buyer absorption at key support levels (128.37).
• Significant positive delta shifts and rising buy volume.
• NVDA price prediction remains bullish as long as price holds above 132.65 (today’s VWAP) and challenges resistance near 135.03.

Trading Strategy: NVDA Stock Price Prediction by AI 🛠️

1. Primary Support Areas to Monitor:

   • 128.37: Yesterday’s VAL must hold for bullish sentiment to persist.
   • 129.27: Yesterday’s VWAP provides an important intraday pivot.

2. Key Bullish Signals:

   • Sustained move above 132.65 VWAP reinforces bullish NVDA price prediction.
   • Clearing 135.03 opens the door to higher targets like 140.13.

3. Profit-Taking Zones:

   • 135.03: A logical area for partial profit-taking.
   • 139.31–140.13: Extended upside targets where sellers may re-enter.

4. Bearish Risk Scenarios:

   • Failure to hold above 128.37 would weaken the NVDA stock price prediction and favor sellers.

Why AI-Powered Analysis Matters for NVDA Price Prediction 🤖

AI-assisted predictions bring precision to NVDA price prediction by analyzing critical volumetric stats, delta shifts, and market behavior. This approach helps traders identify:

• Key junctions where buyers and sellers interact.
• Support and resistance zones that guide trade entries and exits.
• Profit-taking opportunities to maximize gains while managing risk.

Final Thoughts on NVDA Price Prediction by AI 💡

The AI price prediction for NVDA stock leans moderately bullish (+4), supported by strong buyer activity and reclaimed levels like 132.65 VWAP. Traders should monitor:

• 130.11 and 128.37 for support.
• 135.03 for profit-taking opportunities.
• 140.13 as an extended upside target.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This NVDA stock price prediction is for informational purposes only. Trade responsibly and at your own risk ONLY. 📊

Are you ready for NVDA’s next move? Watch these levels closely and let the AI price prediction guide your trades! 🚀

Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.0%
• Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.7%

No changes to the core estimate with services inflation also remaining sticky at 3.9%. The latter hasn’t really moved much in the last six months, continuing to hold closer to 4% still – as it was back in July. That shows that while the disinflation process is on track, there is still more progress needed going into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Analysis: Key Levels and Near-Term Outlook 🏆📊

February 2025 Contract | 50 Range Chart Analysis

Current Overview

Gold futures are trading within a tight range, showing mixed momentum as buyers and sellers battle for control. While buyers have stepped in at critical support levels, sell-side activity has reemerged, signaling potential hesitation near resistance. Traders and investors should remain cautious as the market consolidates and watch for decisive moves at key levels.

🔑 Key Levels to Watch

1. Immediate Support:

   • 2654.0: Key pivot and recent support level, marking the bottom of the current range.

2. Critical Resistance Zones:

   • 2659.6: Current VWAP level, acting as the intraday pivot.
   • 2666.4 – 2667.1: Upper resistance near high-volume nodes, representing a significant test for buyers.

3. Directional Breakout Points:

   • A break above 2667.1 would open the door for further upside, signaling buyer strength.
   • A drop below 2654.0 could see increased sell-side pressure and downside continuation.

Market Sentiment and Momentum

Recent price action shows:

• Buyer Absorption: Buyers have repeatedly absorbed sell-side pressure near key support levels, signaling their presence in the market.
• Seller Resistance: Sellers reemerged near resistance, limiting upward momentum and suggesting hesitation.

The current balance of power remains neutral to slightly bullish as buyers defend support, but follow-through is lacking for a convincing breakout. Traders should watch for increasing buyer strength or renewed sell pressure to determine the next directional move.

AI Directional Bias Score: +1 (Slight Bullish Bias) 📈

The AI analysis leans slightly bullish given signs of buyer activity at support, but a decisive move above 2659.6 VWAP or the upper resistance levels at 2666.4 – 2667.1 is required to confirm this outlook.

🔍 Key Takeaways for Gold Traders and Investors

1. Bullish Scenario:

   • A sustained move above 2659.6 and a breakout through 2667.1 would signal buyer control.
   • Targets: Higher resistance areas above 2667.

2. Bearish Scenario:

   • A failure to hold 2654.0 would shift momentum in favor of sellers, with further downside potential.
   • Targets: Lower VWAP deviations and extended support levels. Bulls need to defend 2650 to maintain the bullish bias. Below 2645, bears get the ball.

Gold is still consolidating here 💡

Gold futures are at a critical juncture, consolidating within a narrow range while traders await the next major move. Key levels will act as pivotal zones for traders looking to position for either a breakout or breakdown.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively. 📊 Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.1%
• Germany DAX +0.1%
• France CAC 40 +0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX -0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.1%

The gains are marginal and isn’t reflective of much to start the session. US futures are higher but again, it’s still early in the day with Wall Street yet to have their say and then we also have the Fed coming up later. I would expect European indices to show more caution as such, similar to how the week has played out so far. Despite that, it has been a good month so far for equities. The DAX is up a little over 3% still in December and CAC 40 also up nearly 2% on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.07%, Shanghai Composite down 0.51%, Hang Seng down 0.20% ASX up 0.78%
• Commodities : Gold at $2668.35 (-0.04%), Silver at $30.84 (-0.38%), Brent Oil at $74.09 (-0.16%), WTI Oil at $70.4 (-0.39%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.401, UK 10-year yield at 4.4400, Germany 10-year yield at 2.2430

News & Data:

• (USD) Core Retail Sales m/mI 0.2% vs 0.4% expected
• (USD) Retail Sales m/m 0.7% vs 0.6% expected
• (CAD) CPI m/m 0.0% vs 0.1% expected
• (CAD) Median CPI y/y 2.6% vs 2.4% expected
• (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y 2.7% vs 2.6% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Wednesday, following Wall Street losses and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Investors in Asia also reviewed Japan’s latest trade data before the Bank of Japan’s rate decision later this week.

Japan’s exports increased 3.8% year-on-year in November, surpassing the expected 2.8% growth, while imports fell 3.8%, much more than the anticipated 1% rise. As a result, Japan posted a trade deficit of ¥117.6 billion ($765.2 million), larger than the expected deficit of ¥688.9 billion. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.4%, and the Topix was down 0.05%.

South Korea’s Kospi rose by 1%, though the Kosdaq was down 0.3%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.06%, closing at 8,309.4. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.6%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.5%.

Markets are also awaiting a rate decision from the People’s Bank of China on Friday, as the country’s loan prime rates (LPR) guide both corporate and household lending.

In the U.S., trading on Tuesday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall for the ninth consecutive day, its longest losing streak since 1978, dropping 267.58 points, or 0.61%. The S&P 500 lost 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.32%. This decline follows a shift into technology stocks, as the broader market remains strong with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting recent record highs.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Building Permits
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Housing Starts
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Current Acount
• 07:00 PM GMT – USD Federal Funds Rate

The post Wednesday 18th December 2024: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Investors Eye Fed and BOJ Rate Decisions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.