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Slight delay in the release by the source. There were surpluses recorded for goods (€30 billion) and services (€15 billion). That is offset by deficits for secondary income (€15 billion) and primary income (€5 billion).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY may be at the highs for the day at 156.85 but the dollar is lower against the rest of the major currencies bloc at the moment. The greenback is down around 0.3% to 0.4% across the board, so the losses elsewhere aren’t anything too significant as compared to the gains caught during the post-Fed reaction yesterday.

In the case of EUR/USD, the pair is up 0.4% to near 1.0400 but is holding just below the figure level for now with large option expiries in play as noted here. That might help keep a lid on things before we get to the US weekly initial jobless claims later.

Besides that, GBP/USD is also up 0.4% to 1.2620 and USD/CAD down 0.3% to 1.4403 currently. The latter is still seeing a meaningful breakout as it climbed to its highest levels since March 2020 yesterday. On the monthly chart there, a firm break above 1.4100 will mark a significant step in trying to push to test key resistance around 1.4500 through to 1.4600 levels next.

Elsewhere, AUD/USD is also seen up 0.3% to 0.6238 now after having run into a test of the 0.6200 level:

That is a key level on the weekly chart as seen above, having stalled the downside move back in October 2022. That said, the pair is still down 4% this month with sellers well in control amid the very light bounce on the day.

So far, it’s all just a soft retracement to the moves yesterday and we’re seeing a similar mood play out in broader markets as well.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% while gold is up 1.1% to $2,616 on the day currently. In the bond market, 2-year Treasury yields are down 2.6 bps to 4.33% but 10-year Treasury yields are holding steadier at 4.52%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 96
• Manufacturing confidence 97
• Prior 97
• Services confidence 96
• Prior 98

The French business climate falls to its lowest since July as sentiment continues to worsen for Europe’s second largest economy. Of note, employment conditions are also seen weakening further with the index there dropping to 96 from 98 previously. That also matches its softest reading since July.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -23.3; revised to -23.1

There is a slight pickup in German consumer morale going into the turn of the year but it remains at a low level historically. GfK notes that “a sustained recovery in consumer sentiment is not yet in sight, as consumer uncertainty is still too high”.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• German DAX futures -1.4%
• French CAC 40 futures -1.5%
• UK FTSE futures -1.1%

A more hawkish Fed looks to have turned December on its head for equities. European indices look set for a sea of red in trying to catch up to the heavy losses in Wall Street yesterday. US futures are more muted today though, keeping little changed near flat levels thus far. So, that’s at least helping to not make things worse at the start of European trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reading between the lines, it looks like BOJ governor Ueda is alluding to the idea that the Japanese central bank might prefer waiting until March before hiking rates next. He kept pushing the narrative that they don’t have much information on the trend in wages and also talking up a lot of uncertainty in awaiting what Trump might do with tariffs next year.

All of that doesn’t sound very convincing if they are lining up for a January rate hike. That especially as these developments might not see much change in the next one month.

Ueda also goes on to say that he wants to see “one more notch” before deciding on the next rate hike. I reckon it just means he wants more clarity on one of those two things highlighted above.

And again, it might be a case that they’ll only get a better sense of all of that in March. That especially on wages, having to wait on the discussions involving the spring wage negotiations.

For now though, a hawkish Fed and less hawkish BOJ means USD/JPY is free to ramp higher. The pair is now touching 156.00 with little technical resistance in the way of the November high of 156.74 next.

That will be a key resistance point to watch before buyers take aim at the 160.00 mark once again.

The tricky part in all of this is that it is coming right before markets take a breather starting from next week. The thinner flows could exacerbate the market moves before the new year, so it will be interesting to watch how the sentiment from this week plays out in the coming two weeks.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Before yesterday, gold prices only moved down to test the 100-day moving average (red line) twice this year. Yes, that’s right. Just twice. The first was in February and the second in November. During both times, buyers held their ground but they fell short of holding the line in trading yesterday.

A hawkish rate cut by the Fed led to a surge in the dollar and rates, weighing on gold prices. That saw a dip below the key technical level into the daily close for the first time since October 2023.

But for today, gold buyers are hoping to try and recover that position. Price is up 0.9% to $2,609 currently with the 100-day moving average seen at around $2,605.93. It’s definitely a key battle for control now in determining the next steps for gold.

For buyers, moving back above the 100-day moving average will provide some technical comfort. Otherwise, a firm break below that might lead to a further technical correction that could run much, much deeper on added profit-taking activity as well.

The tricky part in all of this is that we’re into the final stretch of the year already over the next few sessions. It will be hard to read into price action beyond this week as flows will thin out for the remainder of the year.

And then there’s also the seasonal tailwind in January to consider, as that has been the best month for gold prices in the last two decades.

All of this is definitely making it tough to get a good read on what will come next for gold. But at least the technical showing above might provide some idea, before traders return in full force in the new year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bayrou has already courted controversy in staying on as the mayor of small French town, Pau, as he takes on the prime minister job in Paris. But that is perhaps the least of his worries at the moment. Much like his predecessor Michel Barnier, Bayrou has to find a balance within his government to satisfy everyone and that looks to be a pipe dream.

Socialist party leader, Olivier Faure, is already out as saying that “if there’s no change from the Barnier government, we’ll topple it in the same way”. Ouch.

And the latest poll on Thursday from Ifop-Fiducial shows that 64% of people are not happy with Bayrou’s appointment to the prime minister post. And that 67% felt that the government will face another no confidence motion again soon.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.7%, Shanghai Composite down 0.31%, Hang Seng down 0.74% ASX down 1.78%
• Commodities : Gold at $2621.35 (-1.24%), Silver at $29.84 (-2.38%), Brent Oil at $72.9 (-0.56%), WTI Oil at $69.4 (-1.39%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.526, UK 10-year yield at 4.5575, Germany 10-year yield at 2.2410

News & Data:

• (USD) Federal Funds Rate  4.5% vs 4.5% expected
• (USD) Building Permits 1.51M vs 1.43M expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific stocks and currencies declined Thursday amid a global market sell-off following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s third consecutive rate cut and its indication of fewer cuts ahead. The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.25% for the third consecutive meeting, leading to a weakened yen, which dropped to 155.40 against the dollar from 154.60 pre-announcement. The Nikkei 225 narrowed its losses to 0.63% from 0.96%, while the Topix fell 0.49%.

In South Korea, the Kospi and Kosdaq indices both declined by 1.65%, with the won trading near its weakest level since March 2009 at 1,450.46 per dollar. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.96%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.88%, and China’s CSI 300 slid 0.62%. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, mirroring the Fed’s move, as its currency is tightly pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, New Zealand officially entered a recession, with GDP falling 1% in the September quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of decline.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones dropped 1,123.03 points, or 2.58%, to 42,326.87, marking its first 10-day losing streak since 1974. The S&P 500 fell 2.95% to 5,872.16, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 3.56% to 19,392.69. The sell-off followed the Fed’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with a forecast of only two rate cuts in 2025, fewer than the four previously projected.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Final GDP q/q
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 19th December 2024: Global Markets Slide Amid Fed Rate Cuts and Economic Uncertainty first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 December 2024

What happened in the Asia session?

New Zealand’s economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter as GDP output fell 1.5% in the third quarter of this year, significantly lower than the estimate of a 0.4%-decline. This marked the fourth period of contraction over the past five quarters as goods-producing and service industries led the downturn. The Kiwi tumbled hard towards 0.5600 before stabilizing around 0.5630 by midday Asia. However, overhead pressures remain for this currency pair.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key policy rate at 0.25%, in line with market consensus, during its final meeting of the year keeping it at the highest level since 2008. However, the vote was split 8 to 1 with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25-basis point (bps) hike. The central bank needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly U.S. economic policies under incoming President Donald Trump and next year’s wage outlook while adhering to its assessment that Japan’s economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. The press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda will be equally if not more pivotal than the statement – his remarks will no doubt have a significant impact on the direction of the yen.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep its official bank rate on hold at 4.75% as both headline and core CPI have picked up in recent months and are moving away from the target of 2%. This would mark the second pause since their rate cutting cycle began in August. The Pound has strengthened meaningfully since the end of November and could appreciate even further should the BoE maintain rates at current levels while the statement points to a hawkish outlook on future monetary policy action.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

GDP (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The final GDP reading for the third quarter of this year is expected to show the American economy growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, highlighting a strong economy. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have risen notably higher over the last couple of weeks which is typically a sign of potential labour market weakness. For the latest result, claims are forecasted to moderate marginally lower from 242K to 229K. Demand for the dollar could surge once more should markets receive a strong GDP result while unemployment claims fall more than anticipated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted by a majority to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.25 to 4.50% on 18 December. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range at 4.5 to 4.75%.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs to 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs 2%).
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• The next meeting runs from 28 to 29 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

GDP (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The final GDP reading for the third quarter of this year is expected to show the American economy growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, highlighting a strong economy. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have risen notably higher over the last couple of weeks which is typically a sign of potential labour market weakness. For the latest result, claims are forecasted to moderate marginally lower from 242K to 229K. Demand for the dollar could surge once more should markets receive a strong GDP result while unemployment claims fall more than anticipated, potentially creating intense headwinds for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie plunged more than 2% on Wednesday following a hawkish outlook by the Federal Reserve. Intense headwinds have built up for this currency pair and it could fall further as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6170

Resistance: 0.6290

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10th December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wages growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

GDP (9:45 pm GMT 18th December)

What can we expect from NZD today?

New Zealand’s economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter as GDP output fell 1.5% in the third quarter of this year, significantly lower than the estimate of a 0.4%-decline. This marked the fourth period of contraction over the past five quarters as goods-producing and service industries led the downturn. The Kiwi tumbled hard towards 0.5600 before stabilizing around 0.5630 by midday Asia. However, overhead pressures remain for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to further ease monetary policy restraint.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (2:52 am GMT)

BoJ Press Conference (Tentative)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key policy rate at 0.25%, in line with market consensus, during its final meeting of the year keeping it at the highest level since 2008. However, the vote was split 8 to 1 with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25-basis point (bps) hike. The central bank needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly U.S. economic policies under incoming President Donald Trump and next year’s wage outlook while adhering to its assessment that Japan’s economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. The press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda will be equally if not more pivotal than the statement – his remarks will no doubt have a significant impact on the direction of the yen.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 December, by a 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderate increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a passthrough to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned; inflation expectations have risen moderately.
• With regard to the CPI (all items less fresh food), while the effects of the pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 24 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Following the outcome of the FOMC meeting, the Euro plunged almost 1.4% on Wednesday as it dived under 1.0400. This currency pair stabilized around 1.0350 at the beginning of the Asia session but overhead pressures remain firmly in place – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.0315

Resistance: 1.0460

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 12 December to mark the third successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.15%, 3.40% and 3.00% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 30 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

As demand for the dollar surged overnight, USD/CHF soared past 0.9000 with ease. This currency pair is likely to remain elevated and was trading around 0.9010 at the beginning of the Asia session but it should remain elevated as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8920

Resistance: 0.9050

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking for the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector was again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely, and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BoE Monetary Policy Statement (12:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep its official bank rate on hold at 4.75% as both headline and core CPI have picked up in recent months and are moving away from the target of 2%. This would mark the second pause since their rate cutting cycle began in August. The Pound has strengthened meaningfully since the end of November and could appreciate even further should the BoE maintain rates at current levels while the statement points to a hawkish outlook on future monetary policy action.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7 November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
• CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
• The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
• GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
• The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
• Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
• Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

A hawkish outlook for 2025 by the Federal Reserve triggered a surge in demand for the greenback propelling USD/CAD beyond 1.4450. This currency pair will likely remain elevated as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.4350

Resistance: 1.4560

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.25% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 11 December; this marked the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports.
• The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force while wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected.
• Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June and going forward, they will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 29 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices tumbled for the third consecutive day this week as the EIA crude oil inventories fell less than originally anticipated and a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve for 2025 created headwinds for this commodity. The EIA inventories declined by just 0.9M barrels of crude, lower than the estimate of a 1.6M-drawdown. WTI oil fell under the $70-mark once again and was drifting lower towards $69 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Thursday – this benchmark has shed almost 2.6% so far.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 December 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

In case you missed the events from earlier:

• The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, as expected
• FOMC December 2024 dot plot and central tendencies of economic forecasts
• Powell opening statement: Inflation is much closer to 2% goal
• Powell Q&A: Today was a ‘closer call’ but we decided it was the right call
• Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expected
• Bank of Japan comprehensive review on past monetary easing steps
• Recapping the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision today – rates unchanged again

That leaves the BOE as the final major central bank policy decision for the year. But unlike the Fed and BOJ, this one should be a more uneventful and straightforward one.

The BOE is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged this time around and stick with their ongoing communique. That being “a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate”.

They will continue to emphasise that on the balance of risks, they can’t move too quickly in cutting rates. And that there is still work to be done on the inflation front, although the disinflation process remains on track.

All in all, it shouldn’t be anything too new for sterling. Traders have fully priced in a decision for the BOE to keep the bank rate on hold. But looking out to next year, there is ~51 bps of rate cuts priced in. So, that will be the main thing to watch in the aftermath depending on the policy language.

However, as noted above, I doubt this is the time for the BOE to be making waves. But they might drop a couple of hints on the price outlook, wages, and economic developments. So, we’ll see. Otherwise, things should play out quite straightforward.

In terms of the bank rate decision, it is widely anticipated that we will see a 8-1 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged. The only dissenter should be Dhingra in favour of a 25 bps rate cut.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Recapping the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision today – rates unchanged again
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecast to cut by 50bp in February, then by 25 in April & May
• USD/JPY jumps above 155.20 after BoJ votes 8 – 1 to leave rates unchanged again
• Bank of Japan comprehensive review on past monetary easing steps
• Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expected
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• Australian Inflation Expectations (December 2024) 4.2% (prior 3.8%)
• New Zealand December business confidence 62.3 (prior 64.9)
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has cut its base interest rate by 25bp, as expected
• South Korea again says preparing FX stability and liqudity measures
• New Zealand “dramatically worse than anyone had expected” – RBNZ could cut by 75bp in Feb
• Here’s a view saying BoJ to hike today (or maybe January!) – stronger yen in months ahead
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• New Zealand dollar falls even further after GDP plunges
• Trump notified Japan that meeting with PM Ishiba possible in mid-January
• New Zealand Q3 GDP -1.0% q/q (vs. -0.4% expected)
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• New Zealand Q3 GDP data is due imminently – contraction expected
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• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 19 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Before
we get to the Bank of Japan news a quick trip to New Zealand. Q3 GDP
data were released today, with a huge 1% contraction q/q, much worse
than expected, and a 1.5% contraction y/y, also much worse than
expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand are not scheduled to meet
again until February 19. Expectations for a 50bp rate cut at that meeting have
heightened (and further cuts to follow in subsequent meetings).

I’d
urge some perspective on this. Q3 data covered July, August and
September. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cutting cycle
commenced in August, then continued in November and December. It’ll
take time for these cuts to feed into the economy. There are some
expectations that Q3 will be the nadir and Q4 should show growth. We
won’t see that data (Q4 GDP) until March (!) but we did get a wee
sign of ‘green shoots’ in later data released today. The ANZ
Business Survey for December showed activity at firms improved to a
fresh 10-year high during the month.

NZD/USD
added to its FOMC/Powell slump, falling to lows under 0.5610 before
showing some sign of stabilising. AUD/USD was dragged down a little
alongside to ping 0.6200.

The
Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25%,
with an 8-1 vote. Board member Naoki Tamura, a policy hawk,
dissented. He proposed raising rates to 0.5%, citing rising
inflationary risks. Next up is Governor Ueda’s press conference,
due at 0630 GMT / 0130 US Eastern time. I suspect Ueda might sound a
more hawkish note than the Statement did. Today was a pause, not the
end of the Bank’s normalisation cycle.

The
yen weakened, adding to its losses from FOMC/Powell on Wednesday, US
time. USD/JPY traded up to highs circa 155.44.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.