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The headline on this yesterday didn’t have any detail:

• Reports that a Tesla vehicle on autopilot has crashed into a retail store

More has emerged:

• A Tesla crashed into The Mellow SF plant store
• Elizabeth Creely, a Mission resident, was riding her bike west on 21st Street when she came upon the accident.

  Creely spoke to the driver of the Tesla who said she had her car on auto-pilot to make a right turn onto San Carlos and into her garage. The car, however, wasn’t executing the turn. When the driver went to disengage autopilot, she told Creely, she hit the gas pedal by mistake.

Here is the link to the info if you want more.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Card Retail Sales – for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards.

-1.0% y/y in December 2024

• prior was -2.3

For the m/m, +2.0%

• prior 0% (zero)

***

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand’s services sector PMI from the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for December 2024:

47.9

• prior 49.1

New Zealand’s services sector exhibited a faster rate of contraction

• well below the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey
• sector has now been in contraction for ten consecutive months
• Respondents’ comments were heavily focused on the cost of living and the general economic climate/recession.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel:

• “comparing across our key trading partners, New Zealand has the only PSI in contraction. Our neighbour Australia is the closest comparison, but their equivalent PSI is sitting more comfortably at 50.8”

Earlier this month:

• New Zealand December Manufacturing PMI 45.9 (prior 45.5)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a lower tier data calendar for the Asia time zone.

The data from New Zealand is unlikely to shove around the kiwi $ much at all upon release.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is a social media report originating at Walla News.

Walla is described as Israel’s leading news and content website.

Maybe take a bit of care with this news.

—

The previous administration of US President Biden halted the shipment of such weapons.

Trump was sworn in on January 20.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Donald Trump sworn in as President
• Trump to lay out trade vision but won’t impose tariffs yet – report
• Full text: Trump admin circulates document on priorities to Republicans
• Trump to pardon non-violent Jan 6 defendants, commute the rest – report
• Trump inauguration speech highlights tariffs. US dollar bounces
• Five things we learned from Trump’s first hours in office
• Druckenmiller: US dollar rally is in the ‘seventh inning’
• Trump official confirms earlier report that he won’t impose Day 1 tariffs
• ECB’s Vujcic: Risks around inflation are balanced

Markets:

• Gold up $7 to $2708
• Canada 10-year yields down 2 bps to 3.28%
• WTI crude oil down $0.99 to $76.89
• S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• NZD leads, USD lags

The big move of Day 1 of Trump’s second term was a weakening dollar. The dollar fell 50-100 pips across the board after a report — later confirmed — that Trump won’t be imposing any tariffs on Day One. Instead, he plans a memo that will study trade relationships with China, Mexico and Canada among others.

The dollar bounced when he mentioned putting on tariffs in his first speech but that rebound later faded and the dollar is rounding out the day near the lows.

The takeaway is positive for global growth and suggests a plan to negotiate before putting on tariffs, not afterwards .At the very least that buys some time and at best signals someone who is never going to put on strong tariffs. Of course, there are going to be many twists and turns on the tariff road but the dollar falling on the first day of his Presidency argues that there are still opportunities internationally and that growth (and global growth) remain priorities.

Over in crypto, Trump’s ‘official’ meme coin is down 43% on a sell-the-fact trade and the entire space has been volatile. In US trading, bitcoin fell close to $100K but held the line and has bounced to $104K. There was some disappointment as crypto wasn’t mentioned in any early documents or his first speeches.

I would expect to see more of a relief trade in Asia, at least until Trump tweets or leaks his latest ideas.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The first market move of Trump’s second Presidency was: US dollar weakness.

It was a sharp move on a report — later confirmed — that Trump won’t be initiating any tariffs to begin his term. The main lesson in that — and I think we’ve learned this before — is that Trump’s bark is worse than his bite. There was fear this would be a more-unhinged version of Trump but so far he’s looking like the same guy.

So here is what we’ve learned.

1) Noting to upset the stock market

Our baseline playbook for Trump is the same as the first time: The stock market is priority #1, along with growth. Efforts to balance trade and the deficit are second and third.

A tariff war is a big risk to equities and so long as countries can credibly threaten to retaliate, then tariffs may never be fully implemented. Stanley Druckenmiller today said he thinks the US could get away with a 10% across-the-board tariff. I’m not so sure but it will depend on how other world leaders respond.

2) Tech is ascendant

The front row of Trump’s inauguration didn’t feature powerful lawmakers or allies. It featured his family and the top tech titans, including Zuckerbeg, Bezos, Pichai and (of course) Musk. Tim Cook was earlier seated at churce with Zuckerberg and Bezos.

It’s a sign that tech will hold nearly-unfettered power in the administration, so long as they hold the ideological line. That should be great for profits but a key person to watch will be Cook. Apple is trying to move some manufacturing out of China but that’s a monumentally-difficult task given Chinese expertise and supply chains.

3) Energy is a real priority

The Trump administration sent out a document today highlighting its priorities and high on the list was energy, which dominated one of the four sections. This is something that Trump has been saying since he was elected and it’s an alignment with AI and independence goals. One of the lines from the priority list was this:

Trump will declare an energy emergency and use all necessary resources to build critical infrastructure

That’s a tradeable theme that’s not new but I still believe it’s early and I believe it bodes well for everyone involved in any kind of energy, whether foreign or domestic.

4) Immigration moves not as harsh as feared

The administration document says “President Trump will take bold action to secure our border” and that will include sending troops and deportations of ‘criminals’. There is nothing here on mass deportations and that aligns with the idea that Trump doesn’t want to upset the economy. The bottom line is that an underclass of illegal, low-wage workers is good for business.

5) Confusion in crypto, open season on fraud

The launches of $TRUMP and $MELANIA are a low point for the President and for crypto in general, including the decision by Robinhood to list the Presidential grift. It’s starting to look like it will be open season on financial fraud, which is a troubling development for anyone who believes in capital markets. I fear the signals it’s sending particularly for young people who looking to work hard and invest. I’m not sure that’s the path to prosperity in this economy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

CNN, citing sources, reports that Trump will pardon those convicted of non-violent crimes in the Jan 6 attack on the Capitol and those convicted of more-serious crimes will have their sentences commuted.

I don’t think is a surprise and it’s certainly no market moving.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There has been considerable hand-wringing about Treasury yields in the run-up to the election. I believe it became increasingly clear that the angst is more about deficits than inflation. Breakevens have remained rangebound even as nominal yields rose.

A big part of the move is better growth and expectations of growth as well.

Certainly some of it has been deficits, in part because a Republican priority will be extending hugely-expensive Trump tax cuts and perhaps even deepening them and re-introducing SALT deductions.

None of that changed today but the big news is that Trump didn’t initiate any kind of trade war. He continued to promise tariffs in his inaugural speech but is first executive order on that front was only to investigate trade practices, including those of China, Mexico and Canada.

The market took at that as a sigh of relief and I suspect we will see lower Treasury yields when bond markets re-open. Already, we see 1-2 bps lower 10s in Canada and Europe.

The big reason is that trade wars are like real wars — expensive. If we were to get big US tariffs and big retaliation from trading partners, then governments would respond with more spending. Instead, early indications are that Trump will look to negotiations first.

Obviously, everything is subject to change with Trump and nothing is set in stone but it’s going to ‘one day at a time’ for four years, just like the first time.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

One report says that the wallet that bought $1,000,000 worth of $TRUMP at 18-cents has transferred his tokens to other wallets and completely exited his positions following $TRUMP ‘s listing on Robinhood. The buyer netted a profit of over $300 million.

The memecoin is now quoted at $36.22, down 29% today as one of the all-time grifts unfolds.

Bitcoin is at the lows of US trade at $101,800.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

No surprise from Trump so far:

• I was saved by God to Make America Great Again
• We will drill, baby, drill
• We will fill strategic reserves again and export American energy all over the world
• Will begin overhaul of trade system
• Will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens
• Will establish ‘external revenue service’
• Will declare national energy emergency
• Will send troops to the southern border

The bolded headline has caused some US dollar buying and selling in risk assets.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.