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Trump spoke with media on his plane, AF1:

• he’s open to deals if countries offer something “so phenomenal”
• “the tariffs give us great power to negotiate”

The background to this is that Trump aides and allies spent the last 24 hours saying the tariffs were non-negotiable.

• That Trump President was not intending to make deals.

In my headline I said it’s a flip flop. but is it? By now we should all be accustomed to Trump back tracking, hoping opposite to what he just said. This latest should really be no surprise. besidnes, Trump sees himself as a deal maker, everything is up for negotiation.

More from T:

• says tariffs on semiconductors will be starting very soon
• pharmaceutical tariffs are under review

In Australia we call this footwear ‘thongs’. Let’s not go there right now.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A reporter for Bloomberg with the info:

• US officials today told the UK that they’re open to talking about Britain’s proposal to reduce tariffs below 10%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Republicans mulling the creation of a new tax bracket

• for those earning US$1 mn or more.
• talks have included a new top rate that would be around 39% to 40%.

Sceptical of this one.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• White House internal talking points say tariffs aren’t open to negotiation – report
• March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring?
• Trump says stocks will ‘boom’ despite tariffs rout
• Fed’s Cook sees more emphasis on upside inflation risks
• More from Fed’s Jefferson: Still substantial uncertainty around the trade
• Macron: Calls on big European businesses to freeze all investment in US
• Atlanta FedGDPNow moves to -2.8% from -3.7% last.
• Fed Vice Chair Jeffeson: No need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments
• Canada’s Carney announces retaliatory measures against US autos
• Why the US dollar is plunging
• France’s Macron promises a ‘more massive’ response from Europe
• Powell’s speech on Friday will be bigger than non-farm payrolls
• The White House is not in the mood for negotiations
• March ISM services 50.8 vs 53.0 expected
• US March S&P Global final services PMI 54.4 vs 54.3 prelim
• Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year
• Fitch downgrades China to ‘A’, outlook stable
• Trump: The operation is over, the patient lived
• US trade balance -$122.7 billion vs -$123.5 billion expected
• US initial jobless claims 219K vs 225K estimate
• Canada February trade balance -1.52 billion vs +3.55 billion expected
• Lutnick: I don’t think there will be exemptions
• USD is sharply lower after “Liberation Day”. What technicals are driving the major pairs
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar, stocks slammed as Trump tariffs rattle markets
• US March Challenger layoffs 275.24k vs 172.02k prior

US stocks got hit hard. US yields moved sharply lower. The USD fell sharply after the tariff announcements late yesterday.

Yesterday Pres. Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against most countries. Below are the tariffs against major US export countries:

• Canada: 10% baseline tariff.​

• Mexico:10% baseline tariff

• China: 34% tariff.​

• Japan: 24% tariff.

• Germany: 20% tariff (as part of the European Union).​

• South Korea: 25% tariff

• United Kingdom: 10% baseline tariff

• France: 20% tariff (as part of the European Union)

• India: 26% tariff.​

• Taiwan: 32% tariff.

Looking at the USD, it fell the hardest vs the CHF. The CHF benefitted the most from flight to safety flows despite tariffs being hiked by 31%. The USD fell -2.47% against the CHF.

The JPY was another beneficiary even though autos will be a big headwind for Japan. Japanese automakers heavily rely on the U.S. market, with a substantial portion of their vehicles imported either directly from Japan or via manufacturing facilities in other countries. For instance, in 2024, major Japanese carmakers exported nearly 880,000 vehicles to the U.S. from Mexico alone. Cars arriving from Japan on or after April 9, 2025 will have a 25% tariff + 2.5% import duty + 24% reciprocal tariff for a total cumulative tariff of 51.5%. Ouch.

For today, the USDJPY fell -2.06%

The dollar also fell:

• -1.66% vs the EUR
• -1.03% vs the CAD
• -0.73% vs the NZD
• -0.61% vs the GBP
• -0.38% vs the AUD

Although the USD fell vs the major currencies, it also rebounded in the US session.

A rebound did not happen in the US stock market. The major indices tumbled sharply with the Nasdaq index falling near 6% which was the 4rd largest one-day decline going back to at least 2015 (the other 3 were in March 2020).

The final numbers for the day are showing:

• Dow industrial average fell $-1679.39 or -3.98% at 40,545.93. That was the worst day since June 2020
• S&P index fell -274.45 points or -4.84% at 5396.52. That was its worst day since June 2020
• NASDAQ index fell -1050.44 points or -5.97% at 16550.61. That was its worst decline since March 16, 2020.

In the US debt market, yields are also sharply lower as investors prepare for a recession:

• 2 year yield 3.687%, -21.6 basis points. The yield is in its lowest level since October 3. The low yield for 2024 was at 3.508%
• 5-year yield 3.729%, -22.3 basis points. The yield is lowest since October 4.
• 10 year yield 4.032%, -16.3 basis points. The yield is low since October 4
• 30 year yield 4.474%, -7.7 basis points. The yield is still higher than the lowest level in March which came in at 4.424%.

In other markets:

• Crude oil fell sharply on the combination news of lower global growth as a result of tariffs and a potential trade war, and comments from OPEC+ that it would increase crude production faster than previously announced. The price of crude oil fell $-5.10 or -7.11% and $66.61.
• Gold prices also fell surprisingly by $-23.95 or -0.76% to $3114.28.
• Silver fell $2.06 or -6.09% at $31.82.
• Bitcoin felt $196 or -0.24% and $82,333. The low price extended to $81,200. The high price was at $83,896.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The VIX has risen again, this time to 30, which is a huge number – the highest since August 5 last year.

It rises at times of chaos in the stock market, Trump said he expected the collapse.

***

Repeating this ….

For info on the surge in VIX. So what, you ask?

The TL;DR is that a sharp jump in VIX typically signals market stress, risk aversion, and potential declines in equities. It can lead to safe-haven flows and credit tightening. Extreme spikes sometimes mark turning points if central banks or policymakers step in. I see almost zero chance of this right now (well, I think its zero, but you never know, right?).

A sharp increase in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—often called the “fear gauge”—has several important implications for financial markets:

1. Stock Market Decline

• The VIX tends to rise when equity markets drop, reflecting investor fear and uncertainty.
• A significant VIX spike often signals panic selling and increased hedging activity using options.
• If the VIX remains elevated, it suggests sustained bearish sentiment, which may lead to further stock market weakness.

2. Increased Demand for Safe-Haven Assets

• Investors typically rotate into safe-haven assets, such as:
  • US Treasuries (yields fall as bond prices rise).
  • Gold (seen as a store of value in uncertain times).
  • Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) (traditional safe-haven currencies).
• This can lead to yield curve movements, potentially flattening or inverting it further if recession fears intensify.

3. Credit Spreads Widen

• Higher volatility often leads to a flight to quality in the credit markets.
• Corporate bond spreads (especially high-yield or junk bonds) tend to widen as investors demand higher risk premiums.
• This can make financing more expensive for companies, potentially hurting corporate investment and economic growth.

4. Increased Market Liquidity Risk

• Sharp VIX spikes can lead to illiquidity in various asset classes as investors rush to unwind positions.
• Bid-ask spreads widen, making trading more expensive.
• Market makers may reduce their activity, exacerbating price swings.

5. FX Market Volatility

• Emerging market (EM) currencies often depreciate against the US dollar (USD) due to risk aversion.
• Investors pull out of riskier assets and return to USD liquidity, which strengthens the dollar.
• Countries with high foreign debt exposure (denominated in USD) may face additional pressure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New York Times reports the EU is considering fining X over $1 billion.

NYT is gated.

I’ll post more if its of interest.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I’ll be posting on the Japanese data as it comes out, but more out of habit than anything else! Still, maybe the Bank of Japan will express some worry if household spending drops back like expectations how.

Most attention will be on tariff news as retaliation ramps up.

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

SPX daily

It was a bloodbath today, particularly for any company that has supply chains in southeast Asia or exposure to the consumer. There was barely a company that was spared.

The tariffs certainly aren’t hitting all companies but the market is pricing in a recession risk. How far it needs to tilt towards that risk may depend on Friday’s non-farm payrolls and comments schedule from Fed Chairman Powell at 11:25 am ET.

• S&P 500 -4.8% — worst since June 2020
• Nasdaq Comp -6.0% – worst since March 2020
• DJIA -4.0%
• Russell 2000 -6.4% — worst since June 2020
• Toronto TSX Comp -3.8%
• Mexican Bolsa +3.2%

Well, at least there isn’t a pandemic.

The Russell 2000 is now down 20% from the highs, which is the usual definition of a bear market. It’s at a 14-month low and is trading at the same levels as in late 2020.

Mexico didn’t seem to mind the news and was bid late.

Some notable movers:

• Apple -10%
• Amazon -9%
• Meta -8.7%
• Tesla -5.7%
• Best Buy -17.6%
• Shopify -20.2%
• Restoration Hardware -39.5%
• Ralph Lauren -16.5%
• United Airlines -15.4%
• Nike -13.8%
• Citigroup -12.0%

That is a bloodbath, and a self-inflicted one. I imagine the White House is going to be dealing with some very angry constituents.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:.

Take care in equities, especially if you are of a mind to BTD still. We don’t want any of this out there in ForexLive land ….

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Washington Post has obtained an internal talking points memo from the White House that says the new tariff regime shouldn’t be characterized as a tarting point for negotiation. Instead, they should be characterized as a response to a national emergency. The report also said Trump himself told advisors that the tariffs are not about setting up negotiations.

This doesn’t sound good but it could have to do with the legality of ’emergency’ tariffs, and a potential congressional or legal challenge.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Consensus estimate +135K
• Estimate range +50K to +185K
• February was +151K
• Private consensus +135K versus +151K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%
• Prior participation rate 62.4%
• Prior underemployment U6 8.0%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.1 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +155K versus +84K prior
• ISM services employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior
• ISM manufacturing employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prior
• Challenger job cuts 275.2k vs 172.0k prior
• Philly employment +19.7 vs +5.3 prior
• Empire employment -4.1 vs -3.6 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 225K vs 219K prior

The strongest argument for a good number in March is that February jobs (particularly in leisure & hospitality) were depressed by poor weather.

Seasonally, BMO reports that that the unemployment rate tends to run low but the headline also tends to run low. Historic data shows 42% of previous unemployment reads in March have been lower-than-expected, 31% have been higher-than-
estimates, and 27% have matched the consensus. The headline payrolls print is seasonally soft in February, coming in below estimates 56% of the time and beating
44% of the time, by 73k and 64k, respectively, on average.

This would not be a good time for a big miss.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.