Articles

A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday

Axios cites two sources “with knowledge of the issue”.

More:

• Trump administration was satisfied with the first round of talks … achieved their objective of shifting the format from indirect —handled through intermediaries — to direct, with officials conversing directly
• The two lead negotiators, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, spoke for around 45 minutes on Saturday — longer than was revealed publicly

Improved US-Iram relations will be watched by oil traders, bearish for the price at the margin (chance of supply boost would be the reasoning)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country.

NZD/USD little changed, around the high for the session so far circa 0.5837

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

For March was 49.1, indicating a decline in service sector activity

• February was 49.0
• long run average is 53.0

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel:

• “combining together the PSI and the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), the Composite Index (PCI) suggests a modest economic recovery. The extent of growth implied by our indicator has been dampened by the softer PSI readings”.

NZD little changed

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that President Donald Trump’s trade war has pushed the U.S. economy dangerously close to recession. “I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Dalio described the abrupt tariff changes—many delayed by 90 days except for China—as “very disruptive,” comparing the effects to “throwing rocks into the production system.”

He also voiced broader concerns about U.S. debt, the growing budget deficit, and rising geopolitical tensions. “We’re having profound changes in the world order,” Dalio said. “How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession.”

He warned that, if multiple risks materialise simultaneously, the fallout “could be more severe” than past crises like those in 1971 or 2008.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Equity index futures:

• S&P 500 +1.1% … ES
• NASDAQ +1.5% … NQ
• DOW JONES +0.9% … YM

There has been much baloney over the weekend over what tariff applies to electronics now (smartphones, PCs etc) – the number seems to be 20%, not 145%. Giving equities a boost.

Risk FX update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Globes trade will begin at the top of the hour.

Forex rates show EUR and JPY both lower against the USD.

The latest muddled communication on whats going on with tariffs is that Trump shouted in a social-media post Sunday that “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’” on tariffs, the imposts are moving to a different bucket.

More:

• Trump says 20% tariff on computers, and smartphones (so, not 145%)
• U.S. Trade Representative Greer also bumbling through explaining tariffs on electronics

• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German Chancellor-in-waiting (set to become chancellor in May) Friedrich Merz has warned that Trump’s tariff policies could accelerate the onset of a global financial crisis. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Merz urged a new U.S.-EU free trade agreement, proposing “zero percent tariffs on everything” as a mutually beneficial solution.

The EU has already floated a “zero-for-zero” tariff proposal on industrial goods, but Trump dismissed it as insufficient and suggested Europe should instead buy more U.S. energy.

Merz said Europe would need to shift focus to other markets if the U.S. withdraws from global trade:

• “Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected”
• “We Europeans need to come up with a persuasive response.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had some data from China over the weekend, see the first two lines in the screenshot below.

The focus of the session is the trade data from China, the time in the screenshot (0300 GMT) is only a guide). Exports are expected to have jumped higher as pipeline jamming ahead of higher tariffs played out.

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The info comes via a Reuters report over the weekend, though I thought I had seen similar late last week. ICYMi,

Shipments of seven rare earth elements from China have come to a standstill following Beijing’s move to tighten export controls, sources told Reuters. The halt began on April 4 after the government placed the materials—critical to defense, energy, and automotive sectors—under a licensing regime as part of its retaliation against U.S. President Donald Trump’s steep tariff hikes.

Exporters must now obtain licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, a process that can take weeks or even months. A China-based trader said clients are being told to expect delays of at least 60 days, though the wait could be longer, especially for U.S. buyers amid worsening trade tensions.

China accounts for about 90% of global rare earth production. Analysts warn that prolonged delays could deplete overseas stockpiles and disrupt global supply chains. Several Chinese sellers have already declared force majeure on contracts, and cargoes awaiting shipment that haven’t cleared customs are reportedly blocked from leaving ports.

While the move highlights Beijing’s leverage in global supply chains, it may also encourage long-term diversification efforts by foreign buyers seeking alternatives to Chinese supply.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that electronic products recently exempted from President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs may still be subject to new duties—just under a different framework.

In an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation, Greer clarified that the exemptions reflect a strategic shift from reciprocal tariffs to national security-based measures. “We have to be much more deliberate about the semiconductor supply chain,” he said, highlighting that ongoing investigations could lead to future tariffs on electronics, pharmaceuticals, metals, and other critical sectors.

Greer added that the move to the national security tariff regime requires formal reviews before duties are implemented. Despite the change in legal basis, the risk of tariffs on exempted goods remains. He also expressed confidence that the U.S. would secure meaningful tariff agreements with several countries in the coming weeks.

Greer noted there are currently no plans for President Trump to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

—

Earlier:

• Trump says 20% tariff on computers, and smartphones (so, not 145%)

Weekend:

• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so

Flip flops continue

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posting on his own social media app, Truth Social:

• is looking at semiconductors and the electronics supply chain as part of upcoming national security tariff investigations

This is in reference to the news over the weekend of a reversal on tariffs for electronics such as smartphones, PCs etc:

• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so

Trump’s post:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.