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Goldman Sachs has revised down its oil price forecasts, citing expectations of persistent supply surpluses and subdued demand growth.

• The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $63 per barrel and WTI at $59 for the remainder of 2025.
• For 2026, forecasts fall further to $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI.

The downward revision reflects Goldman’s outlook for large market surpluses, with the oil market expected to be oversupplied by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026. These surpluses, the bank says, will continue to weigh on prices.

Global oil demand is projected to rise only modestly—by 0.3 mb/d in 2025 on a Q4-over-Q4 basis—adding to the pressure on prices amid robust supply.

The latest forecast comes as global energy markets adjust to slowing demand growth, rising production capacity, and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba speaking in Tokyo:

• says cannot make continuous compromises in US talks
• ASEAN is an critical part of Japan-US economic cooperation

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Markets experienced another turbulent week as tariff updates from the United States and other countries continued to roil financial products.

Markets look set to remain volatile in a holiday-shortened week as traders contend with further global trade updates, a raft of fundamental data, and some key central bank rate decisions. Expect moves to come thick and fast in the coming days before relatively calm conditions towards the end of the week, with many financial centres closing for the Easter holidays.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a relatively quiet start to the trading week in calendar terms, with little of note on the cards for the first two trading sessions. There is no major data scheduled in the New York day, but we do hear from Fed members Barkin, Waller, and Harker during the afternoon.

The calendar ramps up significantly on Tuesday with some key data releases throughout the day. The Asian session will focus on Australian markets, with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes out early. The European session begins with UK employment data before attention shifts to Germany for the latest ZEW numbers. In the New York session, focus moves north of the border for key Canadian CPI numbers, released alongside US Empire State Manufacturing data.

Wednesday looks set to be another busy day, with the Asian session kicking off with a major Chinese data drop including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures. More key UK data follows, with CPI data due out early in the London session. The US session looks particularly active: the early focus will be on US Retail Sales data, which should serve as an early barometer for Main Street sentiment regarding tariffs. Attention then moves to Ottawa for the Bank of Canada’s rate decision and press conference. Later in the day, we also hear from the Fed’s Hammack, and more importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

It’s an early start for traders on Thursday in Asia, with New Zealand CPI numbers due near the opening bell, followed by Australian employment data. The highlight of the week likely comes midway through the London session, when the ECB updates its interest rate. Later, the New York session brings weekly US unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Expect holiday trading conditions on Friday, with the vast majority of the world’s major trading centres closed for Good Friday. Many will then enjoy a full long weekend, with markets also closed on Easter Monday.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 14 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Rightmove UK property report for April 2025

• UK asking prices rose 1.3% year-on-year in early April, despite the end of a temporary tax break.

• Average asking price hit a record £377,182, up 1.4% from the previous month—stronger than typical seasonal trends.

• Buyer and seller activity increased, with more listings and house-hunters entering the market.

• Rightmove says market resilience is due to greater choice and continued demand.

• This contrasts with Halifax data, which showed a 0.5% monthly drop in prices, and BoE data showing a dip in mortgage approvals.

• Sales slowed after the March tax break deadline, but new buyer enquiries were still up 5% year-on-year, and homes for sale rose 4%.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday

Axios cites two sources “with knowledge of the issue”.

More:

• Trump administration was satisfied with the first round of talks … achieved their objective of shifting the format from indirect —handled through intermediaries — to direct, with officials conversing directly
• The two lead negotiators, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, spoke for around 45 minutes on Saturday — longer than was revealed publicly

Improved US-Iram relations will be watched by oil traders, bearish for the price at the margin (chance of supply boost would be the reasoning)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country.

NZD/USD little changed, around the high for the session so far circa 0.5837

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

For March was 49.1, indicating a decline in service sector activity

• February was 49.0
• long run average is 53.0

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel:

• “combining together the PSI and the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), the Composite Index (PCI) suggests a modest economic recovery. The extent of growth implied by our indicator has been dampened by the softer PSI readings”.

NZD little changed

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that President Donald Trump’s trade war has pushed the U.S. economy dangerously close to recession. “I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Dalio described the abrupt tariff changes—many delayed by 90 days except for China—as “very disruptive,” comparing the effects to “throwing rocks into the production system.”

He also voiced broader concerns about U.S. debt, the growing budget deficit, and rising geopolitical tensions. “We’re having profound changes in the world order,” Dalio said. “How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession.”

He warned that, if multiple risks materialise simultaneously, the fallout “could be more severe” than past crises like those in 1971 or 2008.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Equity index futures:

• S&P 500 +1.1% … ES
• NASDAQ +1.5% … NQ
• DOW JONES +0.9% … YM

There has been much baloney over the weekend over what tariff applies to electronics now (smartphones, PCs etc) – the number seems to be 20%, not 145%. Giving equities a boost.

Risk FX update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Globes trade will begin at the top of the hour.

Forex rates show EUR and JPY both lower against the USD.

The latest muddled communication on whats going on with tariffs is that Trump shouted in a social-media post Sunday that “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’” on tariffs, the imposts are moving to a different bucket.

More:

• Trump says 20% tariff on computers, and smartphones (so, not 145%)
• U.S. Trade Representative Greer also bumbling through explaining tariffs on electronics

• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German Chancellor-in-waiting (set to become chancellor in May) Friedrich Merz has warned that Trump’s tariff policies could accelerate the onset of a global financial crisis. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Merz urged a new U.S.-EU free trade agreement, proposing “zero percent tariffs on everything” as a mutually beneficial solution.

The EU has already floated a “zero-for-zero” tariff proposal on industrial goods, but Trump dismissed it as insufficient and suggested Europe should instead buy more U.S. energy.

Merz said Europe would need to shift focus to other markets if the U.S. withdraws from global trade:

• “Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected”
• “We Europeans need to come up with a persuasive response.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.