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The post Ex-Dividend 14/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The one positive development over the weekend is that Trump relented on tariffs for electronics here. That said, he had to come out to clarify that a bit as they won’t be in the 145% bucket but set to be placed in a different bucket instead. When those tariffs will come about remains to be seen, but Lutnick said it may be “in a month or so”.

In any case, at least one thing is clear. That even with Trump wanting to come down hard on China, there is some line so as to not overstep. Looking at you, Apple.

For now, markets are taking things in stride with some hopeful optimism to start the new week.

S&P 500 futures are up 1% and that follows from the 5.7% gains last week – the most since the end of October last year.

However, there is a big question now posed to risk trades moving forward. Is any rally from here going to be sustainable or are we moving to a new cycle where it is a sell on rallies for risk?

Despite some better news in the past 48 hours, the global economy is still headed towards a major landscape change as Trump tariffs stay the course. Recession risks remain high and it’s still unclear what all of this is going to do to inflation, especially in the US.

The thing about Trump’s tariffs is that it has blown up the idea of markets over the past few years, that is to fade uncertainty because it is always just going to be temporary.

Now, tariffs are threatening to weigh on the global economy for a prolonged period of time with potential for things to get even worse.

That is a key risk to consider and to get a better handle of that, one has to a close watch on broader market sentiment as a whole.

US futures might be up today but long-term Treasury yields are not falling off all too much. 30-year yields are still at 4.85% and 10-year yields are at 4.47% currently. Those are at least 50 bps higher than the lows from last week, so it speaks to the level of caution and unease still prevailing.

But for now, we’re still subject to headline risks for the most part. So, let’s see what the next twist in the tale is going to be.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Ministry of Commerce responded on Sunday to the Trump administration’s move to exempt certain high-tech products—such as smartphones and computers—from steep reciprocal tariffs, calling it a limited but positive gesture.

The ministry said the exemption “represents a small step by the U.S. in correcting its erroneous unilateral approach,” referring to President Trump’s earlier imposition of tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods.

Beijing’s remarks suggest that while it acknowledges the move, it views the rollback as insufficient in addressing broader trade tensions.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y
• China Customs says detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal
• Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to US$3,700 per ounce
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs likely to weigh on global & Japanese economies
• Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation in industrial and supply chains
• Goldman Sachs cut their targets for Chinese stock indexes for a second time this month
• Trump says he’ll announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week
• USD/JPY back under 142.50 with Kato comments cited
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2110 (vs. estimate at 7.3251)
• Japan finance minister Kato says excess forex volatility is undesirab;e
• More forecasts for People’s Bank of China rate cuts flowing out of China
• Goldman Sachs lowers oil price forecasts on supply surplus outlook
• Japan Prime Minister Ishiba says cannot make continuous compromises in US talks
• Monetary Authority of Singapore eases monetary policy slightly, as expected
• China to step up stimulus, PBOC eyes rate and RRR cuts in Q2
• Iran, U.S. talks expected to continue Saturday in Rome
• UK house data – asking prices rise in April
• ICYMI – China imposes informal curbs on stock sales to support markets
• New Zealand retail sales indicator, March: -1.6% y/y (prior -4.2) & -0.8% m/m (prior +0.3)
• New Zealand data – March services PMI 49.1 (prior 49.0)
• Ray Dalio: Trump’s trade war has US on brink of recession
• US equity indexes open higher on Globex to begin the week’s trade
• US equity index trades begins soon – Globex – FX showing the way
• Weekend – Germany’s Merz said Trump’s tariff policies increase risk of a financial crisis
• Fed’s Kashkari reiterated the focus on keeping inflation under control
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 14 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• ICYMI – China halts rare earth exports after new controls, raising global supply concerns
• U.S. Trade Representative Greer also bumbling through explaining tariffs on electronics
• Trump says 20% tariff on computers, and smartphones (so, not 145%)
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 14 April 2025
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Deutsche Bank ECB preview: “The arguments now clearly favour a cut.”

Weekend headlines were dominated by Trump’s tariff reversal, with smartphones, computers, and other tech products reportedly exempted from the 145% tariff hike on Chinese goods — instead facing a trimmed 20% rate. Confusion soon followed, with conflicting statements from officials, and Trump himself muddying the waters on social media, insisting that “nobody is getting ‘off the hook’” and that “there was no Tariff ‘exception’ announced,” before later confirming the 20% figure. Trump added on Sunday evening (U.S. time) that he would announce the semiconductor tariff rate in the week ahead. The mix of abrupt policy shifts and muddled communication remains a feature of the current environment — unhelpful, but increasingly familiar.

Upon the reopening of Globex for the week, U.S. equity index futures rose.

Flying under the radar was significant news that China has halted exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, materials critical to sectors like autos, aerospace, and semiconductors.

In FX, USD/JPY slipped from around 143.75 following comments out of Japan that Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent would discuss FX volatility, with both agreeing that excessive moves are undesirable.

China:

• There were several reports flagging likely PBoC easing ahead, including possible interest rate and RRR cuts this quarter.
• China’s March trade data showed a sharp jump in exports, likely a result of front-loading ahead of tariff hikes.
• In Chinese equity markets, National Team support was reported, along with further restrictions on stock selling. As of writing, the Shanghai Composite is up 1%.

Singapore’s MAS eased policy for a second straight meeting, citing a deteriorating global outlook. The central bank said it would continue allowing a modest, gradual appreciation of the S$NEER band, but reduce the pace of appreciation. The width and centre of the band remain unchanged.

EUR/USD gapped a little lower early on Monday but rose to a high above 1.14. As of posting its back around 1.1365.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in three years.

In commodities:

• Gold surged to a record above US$3,243.

• Oil markets were supported by reports that U.S.–Iran talks progressed over the weekend, with direct (perhaps) talks expected to resume Saturday.

Finally, in geopolitics, future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would be willing to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, adding that they could be used to strike high-value Russian targets — explicitly mentioning the Crimean Bridge.

USD/JPY:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Customs says it has detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal

• Customs will strengthen the inspection and quarantine of imported products strictly in accordance with laws and regulations

Such discoveries tend to happen t times of heightened trade tensions it seems.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y
• expected +4.4%, prior +2.3%

• China March dollar-denominated imports -4.3% y/y

  • expected -2%, prior -8.4%

• China March trade balance $+102.64 billion

• China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated exports +5.8% y/y, imports -7.0% y/y

• China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated exports +5.8% y/y

• China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated imports -7.0% y/y

• China Jan–Mar trade balance $+272.97 billion

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs cite:

• ongoing global economic uncertainty
• solid central bank demand
• increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs, still rising due to recession concerns

Gold hit a record high today:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Rally into Weekend – Nasdaq up 2%

US stock markets rallied into the weekend on Friday, closing out another hectic week of trading. The Dow rose 1.50%, the S&P gained 1.81%, and the Nasdaq pushed up 2.06% by the end of another choppy session. US Treasury yields climbed again, locking in their biggest weekly gains in nearly two decades. The 2-year closed up 9.8 basis points at 3.960%, and the 10-year finished up 6.5 basis points at 4.490%, having touched nearly 4.6% during the day. Despite rising yields, the dollar plummeted to fresh annual lows, with the DXY down another 0.65% to close at 100.10. Oil prices rebounded, with Brent up 2.26% to $64.76 and WTI up 2.38% to $61.50. Gold continued its rally, gaining nearly 2% on the day to close at a record $3,235.66 an ounce.

Dollar and Treasuries Under Pressure from Trump

Extreme volatility has rocked global markets in recent weeks as President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, triggering widespread financial panic. Two of the world’s traditional safe-haven assets—the dollar and US Treasuries—have been under pressure, with yields experiencing their biggest weekly move in nearly 20 years. Normally, such conditions would push the dollar higher. However, the US 10-year yield has surged nearly 19% from a low of 3.86% on April 4th to a high of 4.592% on Friday, while the DXY has dropped 4%, falling from 103.18 to a low of 99.01 in the same period. Traders will continue to monitor the ongoing flight from US safe-haven assets, but for now, it’s shaping up to be a “sell dollars, wear diamonds” environment.

Quiet Calendar Day to Start a Busy Week

The macroeconomic calendar is light today, so traders expect geopolitical developments to drive market flows. Despite the calm start, there’s plenty of information for investors to digest before the calendar picks up tomorrow in a holiday-shortened week. Already, China’s New Loans data (released Sunday) beat expectations (3,640 billion vs. expected 3,020 billion), which may bolster the positive sentiment from Wall Street in today’s Asian session. However, there’s little else in terms of Tier 1 data in the first two trading sessions of the week. The US session is also quiet on data releases, but we will hear from Fed members Barkin, Waller, and Harker later today, and investors will be looking for further reassurance amid current market conditions.

The post General Market Analysis – 14/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation in industrial and supply chains.

• Urges expanded collaboration in emerging sectors like 5G, AI, and green development.

• Begins Southeast Asia tour with a state visit to Vietnam (April 14–15).

• Promotes regional initiatives like East Asia Cooperation and Lancang-Mekong Cooperation.

• Xi says trade wars and protectionism offer no solutions, though he does not mention the U.S.

• Emphasises need to uphold multilateral trade and stabilise global supply chains.

• China welcomes more Vietnamese imports and supports Chinese investment in Vietnam.

The Prez will visit not only Vietnam, buy Malaysia and Cambodia amid Trump’s escalating trade war.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump will announce tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier on Kato said Japan and the US were in agreement that excess FX volatility was not desired:

• Japan finance minister Kato says excess forex volatility is undesirable

Kato and his US counterpart Bessent in agreement has been enough to drive bids back into the yen:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finmin Kato:

• US, Japan share view excessive FX volatility undesirable
• FX rate to be determined by markets

Japan economy minister Akazawa:

• FX issues will be addressed between finance minister Kato, US Treasury Secretary Bessent

A little verbal intervention

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.