• Prior +0.6%
• Wholesale price index +1.3% y/y
• Prior +1.6%

After the jump in February, wholesale prices moderated a little in March at least. That said, the overall index is still on the high side as it sits at 117.9 and that matches up with the annual average seen in 2023. The annual average last year was only 116.4.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bearish trend

Pivot: 100.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 99.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1200

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.0949
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1526
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 162.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 158.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: q68.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8540

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8448
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8717
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3203
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3040
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3337
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 184.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 0.8370
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8105
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8597
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 142.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 139.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3838

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound. 

1st support: 1.3748
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3946
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6359
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6267

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6402
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5929
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6024

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,740.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,505.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 20,301.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,467.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,508.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 5,242.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 83,233.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,101.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,765.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,438.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,940.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 62.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 58.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3167.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3052.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3295.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 15th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Japanese automaker Nissan is to cut domestic production of its top-selling US model, the Rogue SUV, during the period of May to July this year. Nissan is said to be altering its manufacturing plans in response to US tariffs and will reduce production of the Rogue SUV by 13,000 vehicles at its plant in Kyushu during the above period. The source says that this will mean production will even be halted on some days amid the low output.

In the first three months of the year, Nissan sold 62,000 Rogue SUVs in the US. So, the planned cut is around 20% of that.

For some context, the Rogue SUV was Nissan’s top-selling model in the US last year. It accounted for 246,000 sales, more than a quarter of Nissan’s total US vehicle sales.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered his speech, “A Tale of Two Outlooks”, at the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of St. Louis where he touched on topics such as the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy, and of course giving his view on the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners. Governor Waller stated that sweeping reciprocal tariffs, if implemented, would impact inflation temporarily while U.S. economic growth would likely slow significantly later this year. Higher prices from tariffs would reduce spending, and uncertainty about the pace of spending would deter business investment. In addition, sweeping and lasting tariffs could significantly weigh on the labour market and raise the unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, the recent intense sell-off in the dollar came to a temporary halt on Monday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports. This development has alleviated some concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, contributing to an overall improvement in market sentiment. The dollar index (DXY) stabilized just above 99 before edging above 99.50 overnight.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from the monetary policy meeting that took place on the 1st of April, where the cash rate was maintained at 4.10%. The detailed record will provide in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision to pause at the meeting two weeks ago. The Aussie rose steadily on Monday as it notched its fourth consecutive trading day of higher gains to climb above 0.6300.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell 26 points to -20.0 in March, the lowest figure since May 2023 and well below market expectations of -0.75. Both new orders and shipments fell, with the new orders index dropping to -14.9 and the shipments index to -8.5. This sector is expected to contract once more in April, which would come as no surprise due to the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners. 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell 26 points to -20.0 in March, the lowest figure since May 2023 and well below market expectations of -0.75. Both new orders and shipments fell, with the new orders index dropping to -14.9 and the shipments index to -8.5. This sector is expected to contract once more in April, which would come as no surprise due to the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners. Demand for gold will no doubt remain firmly in place as spot prices registered another all-time high of $3,245.78/oz on Monday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from the monetary policy meeting that took place on the 1st of April, where the cash rate was maintained at 4.10%. The detailed record will provide in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision to pause at the meeting two weeks ago. The Aussie rose steadily on Monday as it notched its fourth consecutive trading day of higher gains to climb above 0.6300.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Demand for the Kiwi remained robust on Monday as it rose above 0.5850. Strong tailwinds for this currency pair have not shown any signs of letting up as it continued its climb toward 0.5900 as Asian markets came online on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports, this recent development alleviated some concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and provided some much-needed relief to financial markets. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen tapered off noticeably on Monday as USD/JPY found a temporary floor around 142.50. This currency pair climbed above 143 at the beginning of Tuesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ZEW Economic Sentiment (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ZEW Economic Sentiment rose by 15.6 points from the prior month to 39.8 in March, the highest figure in eight months and above expectations of 39.6. However, sentiment is now anticipated to take a big hit, tanking to 13.2, due to the ongoing global trade tensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners such as the European Union and China. The Euro eased off Monday’s high of 1.1424 before dipping under 1.1400 during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports, this recent development alleviated some concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and provided some much-needed relief to financial markets. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc tapered off noticeably on Monday as USD/CHF found a temporary floor around 0.8100. This currency pair climbed above 0.8150 as Asian markets came online on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Labour Force report for March is expected to show the claimant count change remaining elevated. After surging from 2.8k to 44.2k in February, 30.3k people are estimated to claim for unemployment benefits while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Should the latest report signal some weakness in the U.K.’s labour market, the pound could face some near-term headwinds.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Inflation in Canada, as measured by the various metrics such as median-, trimmed- and common-CPI, accelerated sharply in February. Headline CPI jumped to an annual rate of 2.6% in February from 1.9% in the previous month, the highest in eight months and sharply above market expectations of 2.2%. The surge was mostly attributed to the end of goods and services tax (GST) and harmonized tax (HST) breaks halfway through the period, triggering sharp increases in the price of eligible goods. The forecasts for March point to price pressures stalling, which could dampen demand for the Loonie in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices climbed in early trading on Tuesday, boosted by new tariff exemptions floated by U.S. President Donald Trump and a rebound in China’s crude oil imports in anticipation of tighter Iranian supply. In the latest development, President Trump said he was considering a modification to the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada and other places while granting tariff exclusions on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods, most of which are imported from China. WTI oil briefly rose above $61 to reach an overnight high of $62.68 per barrel before fizzling out. As Asian markets came online, this benchmark remained elevated above $61.50. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have increased significantly since the beginning of February, highlighting weak demand for crude oil and should the latest report point to another week of higher builds, oil prices could come under pressure once more.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

This according to Kyodo News. This will definitely be an interesting one to watch out for when it happens. But unless Trump is also involved in the meeting, I reckon it might not lead to much. The meeting is expected to take place in Washington.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The kiwi has been quietly an outperformer in the past week, even against the likes of the euro and yen. In the case of NZD/USD, the dollar’s struggles is only compounding the upside move over the last few days. And that is leading to potentially a key technical break as seen above.

The pair had been somewhat consolidating to start the year, before testing the February low in a dip earlier this month. That came amid the initial fears from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs before a strong bounce from last week that is extending to today.

The jump above 0.5900 now sees buyers looking to come up for air in a push above its 200-day moving average (blue line).

The 29 November high from last year at 0.5928 might offer some minor resistance but the pair looks to be angling towards a push to 0.6000 next.

I’m sympathetic to the reasoning that the kiwi is more bid due to flows in AUD/NZD. The pair has seen a decline from 1.0900 to test 1.0700 in the past few days. One key reason for that is perhaps traders stepping up steeper rate cut bets by the RBA.

While the RBNZ is still on an easing path, market bets for the RBA have shot up dramatically since the start of the tariffs war. Traders have fully priced in a rate cut for the next meeting with odds of a 50 bps move even seen at ~20% now. For the year itself, they are pricing in ~121 bps of rate cuts. For some context, it was ~72 bps after the 1 April policy meeting.

But at the same time, the aussie has also been a decent performer – especially in the past two sessions. However, the kiwi still holds an edge in terms of overall gains.

Going back to NZD/USD, this is one chart to watch out for on the week. But again, headline risks can still spoil the party at any time. So, just be wary of that.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Push Higher as Investors Digest Tariffs – S&P up 0.8%

The three major US stock indices all pushed higher in trading yesterday as investors continued to digest all recent tariff updates. The Dow gained 0.78%, the S&P 0.79%, and the Nasdaq pushed up 0.64%. Treasury yields remained volatile, pulling back from recent strong gains—the 2-year losing 11.5 basis points to move back to 3.845%, and the benchmark 10-year dropping 11.6 basis points to 4.374%. The dollar remained under pressure, the DXY losing another 0.3% to close the session at 99.72. Oil prices had a quieter day than they’ve experienced over the last week or so—Brent up 0.26% to $64.93 and WTI up 0.15% to $61.59—whilst gold pulled back from Friday’s all-time high, dropping 0.82% on the day to finish at $3,209.59 an ounce.

Uncertainty the Only Certainty

The last couple of weeks have been some of the most volatile since the Covid pandemic hit markets five years ago, and investors and traders alike are now trying to piece the various (moving) parts of the puzzle together to make informed decisions. Correlations are breaking down across the board, with large percentage corrections still occurring on a daily basis, and some of the traditional haven trades have suffered—particularly US-focused (i.e., the dollar and treasuries)—whilst others, e.g., gold, JPY, and CHF, have flourished. Sadly, at the moment, uncertainty very much rules the roost, and until we get some sort of consistency on what will actually be implemented in terms of tariffs and any counter-tariffs, we will continue to see volatile markets. It appears that non-US havens will continue to appeal.

Event Calendar Kicks into Action Today

The macroeconomic event calendar kicks into action today with some key data and central bank updates due out across the trading sessions, which will add some fundamentals to the geopolitical updates that have been rocking markets. The Asian session will see a focus on Australian markets, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out early in the session. We have some key data due out of the UK early in the European session today—employment data is due out, with the Claimant Count expected to show an increase of 30k fresh claims, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4%. We also have key data due out shortly after the New York open, with the focus on Canadian markets and the latest CPI print. The headline month-on-month number is expected to show a 0.7% increase, with the median year-on-year data coming in at +2.9%. We also have the Empire State Manufacturing Index due out in the US at the same time to kick off US data for the week.

The post General Market Analysis – 15/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

This will at least be one spot to feed into a calmer mood in broader markets for now. Long-end Treasuries are seeing some bids again, with yields backing away from the highs seen last week. 30-year yields are now down to 4.77%, falling a little further away from the 5% mark. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are seen at 4.34% today – down from a high of 4.59% on Friday last week.

As things stand, there’s still a lot to digest with Trump’s tariffs policy.

While we’ve gone through the initial reaction, it’s now over to analysing the impact of it all. At the same time, market players will also have to deal with the constant changes in the level of tariffs while also accounting for any possible retaliation and escalation.

Taking that into consideration, it’s hard to be too confident of a return to normality any time soon. That especially when US and China are still not seen making too much progress in striking an accord.

Xi is busy with his Southeast Asia tour this week and Trump is also not wanting to make the first move yet. So, there will definitely be economic pain to deal with during the interim.

As for Treasuries, it’s not just the relative uncertainty of the tariffs policy. The impact on the US deficit, inflation, economy, and Fed reaction function all also needs to be factored into the equation. And that’s the tough part at the moment, with investors already struggling for confidence amid the policy incoherence to begin with.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Ex BOJ official says Bank to hold, not hike: “will be in a wait-and-see mode for a while”
• Goldman Sachs are wary of 500K of US job losses due to tariffs
• UBS has cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025
• Survey of firms shows efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing through tariffs may backfire
• RBA minutes: May meeting an opportune time to consider reacting to potential risks
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.2096 (vs. estimate at 7.3094)
• Senior BOJ official cites Trump tariffs as a cause of volatile market moves
• Chinese police put 3 U.S. operatives on wanted list over cyberattacks
• Bank of Korea seen holding rates this week, but cuts expected soon
• Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. slashed their estimates for 2025 earnings
• Investing Education: Recession, and What to Watch
• Fed’s Bostic – inflation still much higher than target
• Japan finance minister Kato says negative impacts of excessive FX volatility
• ICYMI – Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December
• UK consumer spending resilient in March despite tariff fears and rising business concerns
• New Zealand March food prices +0.5% m/m (prior -0.5%)
• Recap – Bessent said will begin interviewing for Fed Chair in fall
• RBNZ Conway: Hopefully what Trump put out on tariffs before pause is worst case scenario
• Fed’s Harker speech – no remarks on his economic or monetary policy outlook
• ICYMI – OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth forecast, citing tariffs
• RBNZ chief economist Conway says balance of risks has shifted to the downside
• ICYMI – Goldman CEO Solomon says prospect of a US recession ‘has increased’
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Apr: Markets quiet after last weeks fireworks
• US Treas Sec Bessent speaking – some truth in his comments, some lies
• The US has begun its investigation ahead of pharmaceutical tariffs
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 15 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Asian markets traded cautiously on Tuesday as investors weighed fresh signs of stress from global trade tensions and growing expectations of policy easing in Australia.

Comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic added to the uncertainty. While Bostic noted the U.S. economy is in a “pause” and flagged investment hesitancy, he also reiterated that inflation remains elevated and the labour market is still tight—casting doubt on the near-term case for Fed rate cuts.

Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over foreign dumping of U.S. bonds but said Washington has tools ready, including potential buybacks of off-the-run securities, to help stabilise markets if needed. His remarks came amid broader concerns about debt market volatility and the legacy of prior issuance strategies (Bessent lambasted Yellen for using similar tools!).

In China, authorities in Harbin publicly accused U.S. intelligence agents of cyberattacks targeting infrastructure linked to the Asian Winter Games in February. Beijing alleged the NSA conducted a wide range of intrusions across sectors including energy and telecommunications, further straining already tense U.S.-China relations. No love lost between China and the US right now, is there?

On the policy front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April meeting revealed a shift toward likely further easing, setting the stage for a rate cut at the May gathering. Policymakers highlighted growing global risks—particularly from U.S. tariffs—and emphasised the importance of not undermining progress on inflation by acting too soon.

Major FX traded mixed in not large ranges. EUR/USD lost ground but as I update its little net changed. USD/JPY ticked a little higher but also retraced much of its move. AUD, NZD and GBP all added a few tics.

Gold rose.

EUR/USD update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs sought out academic studies on how tariffs impact:

• The broader statistical evidence points to negative net employment effects.
• While the range of estimates is wide, academic studies generally find that a 1Opp increase in tariff rates raises employment in protected industries by 0.2-0.4% but that each 1pp increase in tariff-driven costs lowers employment by 0.3-0.6%.
• Scaling these estimates to the US economy imply a boost of just under 100k to manufacturing employment from tariff protection but a roughly 500k drag on downstream employment from input cost pressures.

Bolding is mine. Manufacturing jobs added, around +100K, but the wider impact is negative, 500K of job losses.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS has cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025

• Downgraded on assuming current tariff hikes will remain and China rolls out additional stimulus

UBS say the forecast comes with high margins of error

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump tariffs unlikely to bring manufacturing back to U.S., CNBC survey shows.

Efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing through tariffs may backfire, with most companies saying the high cost of reshoring would keep production overseas, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain survey.

Nearly half of the firms surveyed said bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. would double their costs. As a result, instead of reshoring, companies are more likely to seek out new low-tariff regions to base operations, potentially shifting global supply chains rather than reversing them.

Among companies that would consider moving production to the U.S., 81% said they would rely primarily on automation rather than hiring local workers—undermining hopes of a large-scale industrial jobs revival.

The broader economic outlook painted by the survey is cautious. A majority of respondents (61%) expect consumer prices to rise and demand to soften in the near term. Meanwhile, 63% said a recession is now their base case scenario as tariff uncertainty weighs on confidence.

The findings highlight the growing disconnect between political pressure to reshore manufacturing and the financial realities businesses face in a globalised economy.

Link here to the CNBC piece for more.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.