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Solid data this.

Both retail sales and industrial output have surprised to the topside.

The obvious caveat is that the Q1 GDP data (see below) and the economic activity data for March both pre-date the huge increase in tariffs from Trump that will weigh on the Chinese economy going forward. China is expcected to boost stimulus to improve domestic consumption but the loss of a major expoirt marekt like the US will leave a hole in th external sector that will be difficult to fill.

We also had the GDP data:

• China Q1 GDP +1.2% q/q (expected +1.4%)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China economic growth data is mixed:

+1.2% q/q is disappointing

• expected +1.4%, prior +1.6%

+5.4% y/y is a beat

• expected +5.1%, prior +5.4%

Out at the same were ‘activity data’ for March 2025, with some very strong results indeed.

• China Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla’s plans to ship components for its Cybercab and Semi electric trucks from China to the U.S. have been suspended due to escalating tariffs imposed by Trump.

This disruption could delay Tesla’s ambitious production timeline for these new models, which were critical to the company’s growth strategy.

In summary:

• Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods have escalated to 145%, disrupting Tesla’s shipping plans
• The suspension affects Tesla’s Cybercab and Semi production, both targeted for mass production by 2026
• Tesla was initially prepared to absorb a 34% tariff but could not handle the increased rate
• The suspension of shipments impacts Tesla’s robotaxi and Semi truck production goals
• Tesla has also paused accepting new orders for the Model S and Model X due to retaliatory tariffs from China.

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Info via Reuters

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China March 2025 new home prices.

No one will be turning cartwheels at these results, the property sector in China remains in dire straits with huge debt overhangs. And falling prices are a vicious circle, why buy now if prices are falling? … Rinse, repeat.

Still, slightly less bad in March than in February.

First tier cities saw some price rises, lower tier cities tended towards slower declines

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold continues to surge, record high hit above US$3271

• Geopolitical tensions
• Trade war
• Central banks remain buyers
• ETF demand

The usual suspects!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hong Kong SAR government statement said that Hongkong Post suspends the postal service for items containing goods to the US:

“The Government of the United States (US) announced earlier that it would eliminate the duty-free de minimis treatment for postal items despatched from Hong Kong to the US and increase the tariffs for postal items containing goods to the US starting from May 2.

The US is unreasonable, bullying and imposing tariffs abusively.

Hongkong Post will definitely not collect any so-called tariffs on behalf of the US and will suspend the acceptance of postal items containing goods destined to the US”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia March Westpac Leading Index, Westpac’s summary points:

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.

• Leading Index growth rate declines to 0.6%.
• Key components starting to capture tariff policy shock.
• Commodities, interest rate moves still the main positives.
• Cracks appearing around financial markets and confidence.

While the Leading Index continues to show an above-trend growth pulse, the latest softening marks an important shift. Recall that the headline measure is a six-month annualised growth rate. Hence, even sharp monthly developments take time to move momentum. The Index is only just starting to capture the effects from the trade policy disruptions that escalated sharply following US President Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement on April 2. The situation is uncertain and there are other factors at play but some further softening in the growth pulse looks likely in the months ahead.

Bolding above is mine.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to meet South Korea’s finance minister Choi next week to discuss trade issues

South Korea’s finance ministry with the announcement.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ raised its year-end forecast for gold price to $3,600 per ounce

• and six-month forecast to $3,500
• expects silver’s rise to continue towards $34/oz

Meanwhile, gold has hit a record high above US$3260.50

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data:

February Core Machinery Orders +1.5% y/y (expected -0.9%, prior +4.4%)

• +4.3% m/m (expected +1.2%, prior -3.5%

This is encouraging data. The caveat is, of course, that its for February, before the Trump tariffs hit the fan.

—

The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series

• its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Greg had the data on Tuesday, US time:

• a sharp deterioration in business sentiment

The survey was conducted April 2 to 9, just after the destructive reciprocal announcement but prior to Trump’s 90 day pause.

It makes for ugly reading.

The outlook for the future is dire, bolding mine:

• Firms turned pessimistic about the Outlook with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest readingin the more than 20 year history of the survey
• Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey.
• The index for future
  general business conditions fell twenty points
  to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative
  forty-four points over the past three months.
• New orders and shipments are expected to
  fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital
  spending plans were flat. Input and selling
  price increases are expected to pick up, and
  supply availability is expected to worsen over
  the next six months.

***

While the current conditions graphs are not great, the forward-looking ones are vomitous. This is a snippet pic, link here for more.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China:

• U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries

more to come

Link here for more (gated)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants trading partners to limit China’s involvement in their economies in exchange for concessions on reciprocal tariffs

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.