IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly higher than the previous estimates of 2.3%. Exports fell slightly less and imports declined more than initially anticipated, leaving the contribution from net trade positive at 0.26 pp (vs 0.12 pp). Government expenditure also rose more while fixed investment contracted less. Meanwhile, unemployment claims printed at 224k, coming in marginally below the forecasts of 225k. Claims have remained pretty stable over the last four weeks, averaging around 223k – lower and stable claims typically highlight a resilient labour market. Despite a relatively robust set of macroeconomic data, the dollar index (DXY) slid lower toward 104 overnight as sentiment was hurt by the White House’s announcement to impose tariffs on automobile imports. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs on all foreign-made cars and light trucks, effective April 2. The move is expected to ramp up local automobile costs in the near-term, as manufacturers race to find new supply chains and shift more of their production into the U.S. but the 25% tariff also heralds pain for U.S. automakers, given that a bulk of them operate factories outside the U.S., especially in Mexico.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI accelerated from an annual rate of 2.2% in the previous month to 2.4% in March, higher than the market consensus of 2.2%. This marks the fifth consecutive month that core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue normalizing monetary policy. The BoJ held interest rates steady during its March policy meeting as the board took a cautious stance while assessing the impact of rising global risks on the domestic economy. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled this week that further rate hikes are likely if economic conditions align with projections. The yen initially strengthened following this data release with USD/JPY falling toward 150.70 but it reversed swiftly to rise steadily toward 151.20.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – moderated lower in January as both headline and core readings eased, marking its first slowdown in four months. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further in February, this recent ascend in the DXY could lose some steam during the U.S. trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – moderated lower in January as both headline and core readings eased, marking its first slowdown in four months. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further in February, this recent ascend in the DXY could lose some steam during the U.S. trading hours, potentially providing a boost for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie has hovered around 0.6300 for most of this week but downward pressures are driving it toward 0.6270 at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session. Persistent demand for the greenback will likely weigh on the Aussie as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Renewed demand for the greenback on Friday put downward pressure on the Kiwi. Overhead pressures are likely to build further as the day progresses and this currency pair could retest this week lows of 0.5700.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 27th March)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI accelerated from an annual rate of 2.2% in the previous month to 2.4% in March, higher than the market consensus of 2.2%. This marks the fifth consecutive month that core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue normalizing monetary policy. The BoJ held interest rates steady during its March policy meeting as the board took a cautious stance while assessing the impact of rising global risks on the domestic economy. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled this week that further rate hikes are likely if economic conditions align with projections. The yen initially strengthened following this data release with USD/JPY falling toward 150.70 but it reversed swiftly to rise steadily toward 151.20.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro rallied strongly on Thursday as it rose 0.5% to climb above 1.0910. However, overhead pressures remain for this currency pair as it dipped under 1.0900 as Asian markets came online on Friday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc and the greenback seemingly at equilibrium since last week, USD/CHF has ranged sideways as it hovered above 0.8750 while running into headwinds at 0.8850 thus far. This currency pair looks set to extend this ‘neutral’ bias as the trading week wraps up on Friday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

After declining for four consecutive months, consumer spending in the U.K. rebounded strongly in January as sales jumped 1.7% MoM, easily surpassing market expectations of a 0.3% gain. This marked the strongest expansion since May 2024, with food stores such as supermarkets, specialist food stores as well as alcohol and tobacco stores leading the gains. However, February forecast points to a decline of 0.3%, signalling a return to negative sales growth. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending could create headwinds for the pound on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Economic activity grew relatively strongly in December 2024 and January of this year as mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction activities along with wholesale trade and transportation; and warehousing led the expansion. Following a growth of 0.3% in January, the Loonie should see strong tailwinds if Canada’s economy remains robust.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as traders assessed a tightening of crude supplies along with new U.S. tariffs and their expected effect on the world’s economy. The biggest headwind for oil right now is the concerns about trade and oil tariffs could slow demand growth, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude on Tuesday. WTI oil has climbed nearly 5% at its highest point this week due to fears of tighter supplies following the recent sanctions on Venezuelan oil. This benchmark briefly rose above $70 per barrel by Wednesday and then again on Thursday and is set to notch its third consecutive week of higher gains as trading comes to a close on Friday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 28/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.93%, Shanghai Composite up 0.33%, Hang Seng up 0.93% ASX down 0.38%
• Commodities : Gold at $3067.35 (0.60%), Silver at $34.3 (0.68%), Brent Oil at $73.05 (0.5%), WTI Oil at $69.6 (0.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.357, UK 10-year yield at 4.7300, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7895

News & Data:

• (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.7%  to 0.2% expected
• (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% to -1.1% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance on Thursday, following Wall Street losses as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.01% in its final hour of trading, while the broader Topix index declined 0.53%. In South Korea, the Kospi fell 1.19%, and the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 1.06%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.87%, while China’s CSI 300 edged up 0.4%. India’s Nifty 50 opened 0.42% higher, and the BSE Sensex climbed 0.48%. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.38% lower at 7,969.

U.S. futures dipped after key Wall Street indexes posted losses overnight. The S&P 500 declined 1.12% to close at 5,712.20, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 132.71 points (0.31%) to finish at 42,454.79. The Nasdaq Composite, driven by weakness in tech stocks, tumbled 2.04% to 17,899.01 as Nvidia shares plummeted nearly 6%.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Final GDP q/q
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 27th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Wall Street Slumps Amid U.S. Tariff Concerns first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

With no major news during this session, the dollar index (DXY) continued drifting lower as it fell toward 104.30 by midday in Asia while spot prices for gold climbed strongly. This precious metal was ascending toward $3,040/oz, inching closer to the intraday all-time high of $3,057.57/oz that was formed last Thursday.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

After increasing for three straight weeks, the EIA inventories finally registered a drawdown of 3.3M barrels of crude – notably higher than the forecast of a 1.5M draw. This latest report marked only the second draw in nine weeks, highlighting weaker demand for crude oil in the United States. Coupled with mounting concerns about tighter global supply following the U.S. threat of tariffs on nations that buy Venezuelan crude, WTI oil jumped nearly 1.7% overnight before pulling back to notch a gain of 0.9%. This benchmark briefly surged past $70 per barrel before settling around $69.70. Tailwinds continue to build for this commodity with oil prices all but certain to record its third successive week of closing in the green.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The final reading for fourth quarter GDP in the U.S. is expected to show the economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.3% – the slowest pace of growth in three quarters. Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth while exports fell slightly less and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated; compared to the third quarter. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained pretty stable over the last three weeks, averaging 222k. Lower and stable claims typically highlight a resilient labour market. The estimate of 225k for the latest reading points to another week of ‘robust’ labour market data. A strong set of macroeconomic results could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The final reading for fourth quarter GDP in the U.S. is expected to show the economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.3% – the slowest pace of growth in three quarters. Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth while exports fell slightly less and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated; compared to the third quarter. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained pretty stable over the last three weeks, averaging 222k. Lower and stable claims typically highlight a resilient labour market. The estimate of 225k for the latest reading points to another week of ‘robust’ labour market data. A strong set of macroeconomic results could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar later today, potentially creating headwinds for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

After increasing to an annual rate of 2.5% in December 2024 and January this year, the monthly CPI eased marginally to 2.4% in February. Not only did the latest print moderate from a four-month high, it also came in lower than market forecasts of 2.5% with categories such as food; housing; and electricity all rising at a slower pace. Wednesday’s ‘soft’ inflation print sent the Aussie to fall under 0.6300, tumbling as low as 0.6279. Headwinds for this currency pair are likely to build further on Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Increased demand for the greenback drove the Kiwi to an overnight low of 0.5712. This currency pair edged slightly higher at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session but overhead pressures remain.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Overhead pressures for the yen remained firmly intact this week as USD/JPY rose 1% at its highest point on Tuesday. This currency pair remained elevated on Wednesday, hitting an overnight high of 150.74 before pulling back as Asian markets came online on Thursday, sliding toward the 150 level.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Demand for the euro has fizzled out since the middle of last week as it reversed from its highs of 1.0950 to shed over 2% at its lowest point on Wednesday. This currency pair dipped as low as 1.0732 before reversing to edge higher toward 1.0770 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc and the greenback seemingly at equilibrium since last Thursday, USD/CHF has ranged sideways as it hovered above 0.8800 while running into headwinds at 0.8850 thus far. This currency pair looks set to extend this ‘neutral’ bias as the trading week comes to a close.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

On Wednesday, consumer inflation in the U.K. moderated lower in February, with headline CPI easing from an annual rate of 3.0% in the previous month to 2.8% while the core eased from 3.7% to 3.5%. Although inflation continues to remain above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target of 2%, the latest print points to some signs of abating price pressures. The largest downward contribution came from prices of clothing which declined for the first time since October 2021, recreation and culture as well as in housing and utilities. The pound fell under 1.2900 to drop as low as 1.2870 before stabilizing around 1.2890 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Demand for the Loonie initially increased on Wednesday causing USD/CAD to dip under 1.4250. This currency pair made an overnight low of 1.4235 before reversing sharply to momentarily surge past 1.4300.  The Loonie continues to face higher-than-usual volatility due to the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada as well as the sudden surge in crude oil prices – Canada is one of the largest non-OPEC+ producing nations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After increasing for three straight weeks, the EIA inventories finally registered a drawdown of 3.3M barrels of crude – notably higher than the forecast of a 1.5M draw. This latest report marked only the second draw in nine weeks, highlighting weaker demand for crude oil in the United States. Coupled with mounting concerns about tighter global supply following the U.S. threat of tariffs on nations that buy Venezuelan crude, WTI oil jumped nearly 1.7% overnight before pulling back to notch a gain of 0.9%. This benchmark briefly surged past $70 per barrel before settling around $69.70. Tailwinds continue to build for this commodity with oil prices all but certain to record its third successive week of closing in the green.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 104.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 103.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0825
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the downward channel and red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.0687
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0885
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 160.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 160.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 163.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8337
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8310
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2876

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1.2779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 50% retracements, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3009
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 193.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 192.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8797

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8758
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8866
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 149.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% and 50% retracements, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 148.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4312

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the downward channel and red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.4237
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4383
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6327
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% retracement and the 78.6% projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 78.6% projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5712

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5783

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 42,114.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 41,410.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,012.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,723.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 22,381.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 100% projection and the 161.8% extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,185.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,710.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,603.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,843.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 85,982.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 81,319.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,949.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1,832.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,132.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 70.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 68.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2,998.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 2,954.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,051.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 27th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After declining in November and December of 2024, new orders for durable goods rose strongly in January of this year. Orders jumped 3.2% MoM with the rebound driven by sectors such as transportation equipment and capital goods. In a surprise twist, orders unexpectedly increased $2.7B or 0.9% MoM to $289.3B in February 2025, beating forecasts of a 1% fall. This follows an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in January with sectors such as transportation equipment leading the gains once again. The dollar index (DXY) has gained 0.5% thus far this week to make an overnight high of 104.68 on Wednesday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Demand for the greenback is likely to stay robust but pullbacks for the DXY should be anticipated along the way. This index dipped under 104.50 at the beginning of this session while spot prices for gold floated above $3,000/oz. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain buoyed by mounting concerns about tighter global supply following the U.S. threat of tariffs on nations that buy Venezuelan crude – WTI oil could make another attempt to climb above $70 per barrel as the day progresses.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The final reading for fourth quarter GDP in the U.S. is expected to show the economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.3% – the slowest pace of growth in three quarters. Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth while exports fell slightly less and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated; compared to the third quarter. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained pretty stable over the last three weeks, averaging 222k. Lower and stable claims typically highlight a resilient labour market. The estimate of 225k for the latest reading points to another week of ‘robust’ labour market data. A strong set of macroeconomic results could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The final reading for fourth quarter GDP in the U.S. is expected to show the economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.3% – the slowest pace of growth in three quarters. Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth while exports fell slightly less and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated; compared to the third quarter. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained pretty stable over the last three weeks, averaging 222k. Lower and stable claims typically highlight a resilient labour market. The estimate of 225k for the latest reading points to another week of ‘robust’ labour market data. A strong set of macroeconomic results could provide a strong tailwind for the dollar later today, potentially creating headwinds for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

After increasing to an annual rate of 2.5% in December 2024 and January this year, the monthly CPI eased marginally to 2.4% in February. Not only did the latest print moderate from a four-month high, it also came in lower than market forecasts of 2.5% with categories such as food; housing; and electricity all rising at a slower pace. Wednesday’s ‘soft’ inflation print sent the Aussie to fall under 0.6300, tumbling as low as 0.6279. Headwinds for this currency pair are likely to build further on Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Increased demand for the greenback drove the Kiwi to an overnight low of 0.5712. This currency pair edged slightly higher at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session but overhead pressures remain.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Overhead pressures for the yen remained firmly intact this week as USD/JPY rose 1% at its highest point on Tuesday. This currency pair remained elevated on Wednesday, hitting an overnight high of 150.74 before pulling back as Asian markets came online on Thursday, sliding toward the 150 level.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Demand for the euro has fizzled out since the middle of last week as it reversed from its highs of 1.0950 to shed over 2% at its lowest point on Wednesday. This currency pair dipped as low as 1.0732 before reversing to edge higher toward 1.0770 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc and the greenback seemingly at equilibrium since last Thursday, USD/CHF has ranged sideways as it hovered above 0.8800 while running into headwinds at 0.8850 thus far. This currency pair looks set to extend this ‘neutral’ bias as the trading week comes to a close.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

On Wednesday, consumer inflation in the U.K. moderated lower in February, with headline CPI easing from an annual rate of 3.0% in the previous month to 2.8% while the core eased from 3.7% to 3.5%. Although inflation continues to remain above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target of 2%, the latest print points to some signs of abating price pressures. The largest downward contribution came from prices of clothing which declined for the first time since October 2021, recreation and culture as well as in housing and utilities. The pound fell under 1.2900 to drop as low as 1.2870 before stabilizing around 1.2890 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Demand for the Loonie initially increased on Wednesday causing USD/CAD to dip under 1.4250. This currency pair made an overnight low of 1.4235 before reversing sharply to momentarily surge past 1.4300.  The Loonie continues to face higher-than-usual volatility due to the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada as well as the sudden surge in crude oil prices – Canada is one of the largest non-OPEC+ producing nations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After increasing for three straight weeks, the EIA inventories finally registered a drawdown of 3.3M barrels of crude – notably higher than the forecast of a 1.5M draw. This latest report marked only the second draw in nine weeks, highlighting weaker demand for crude oil in the United States. Coupled with mounting concerns about tighter global supply following the U.S. threat of tariffs on nations that buy Venezuelan crude, WTI oil jumped nearly 1.7% overnight before pulling back to notch a gain of 0.9%. This benchmark briefly surged past $70 per barrel before settling around $69.70. Tailwinds continue to build for this commodity with oil prices all but certain to record its third successive week of closing in the green.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Hit as Trump Adds More Tariffs – Nasdaq Down 2%

A risk-off tone hit U.S. equities in trading yesterday as tech took a beating, with President Trump advising of more tariffs to come in the auto industry. The Nasdaq finished down 2.04%, leading the decline, while the S&P lost 1.12% and the Dow slipped 0.31%. Rising treasury yields added pressure to the stock move, with the 2-year up 2.3 bps to 4.017% and the benchmark 10-year climbing 3.9 bps to 4.352%. The USD firmed again, up 0.43% to 104.62, riding higher yields. Oil found some support as supply concerns increased with regard to Venezuela and a fall in U.S. inventories, with Brent up 1.42% to $74.06 and WTI rising 0.94% to $69.65. Gold drifted lower, down 0.18% to $3,016.85, but still remains at relatively elevated levels.

Tariff Impact Again Changing Dynamic

There is no doubt that the threat and implementation of trade tariffs from President Trump and the new U.S. administration have had a significant impact on financial markets over the past couple of quarters. However, the impact has changed over this period, and there seems to have been another subtle change in market reaction over the last couple of days. Initially, tariffs were seen as inflationary for the U.S. economy, leading to higher yields and a stronger dollar, but were also viewed as a positive for U.S. stocks. However, over the last couple of months, the negative impact on global trade has been factored in, and stocks have been hit on fresh tariff news, as well as yields and the greenback. But there seems to have been a subtle change again over the last few sessions, with tariff news being sidelined for the dollar and yields, which have gained ground mainly on the back of Fed members’ inflation concerns. FX and bond traders are continuing to monitor the correlation closely and are expecting more volatility, not less, in the coming days.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet calendar day ahead for financial markets, but that does not necessarily mean that traders will have a quiet day. There is little in the way of major economic data updates due out in the first two trading sessions of the day. However, we are scheduled to hear from President Trump again during the Asian session, and this is likely to lead to some strong moves, especially if he talks about tariffs. There is some key data due out of the U.S., and traders will be paying close attention to both the Final GDP number and the Weekly Unemployment Claims update early in the session, and then the Pending Home Sales numbers a while later. However, once again, market participants are expecting geopolitical updates to dominate sentiment.

The post General Market Analysis – 27/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 27/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.23%, Shanghai Composite up 0.07%, Hang Seng up 0.21% ASX up 0.71%
• Commodities : Gold at $3048.35 (0.60%), Silver at $34.1 (0.68%), Brent Oil at $72.5 (0.5%), WTI Oil at $69.2 (0.54%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.338, UK 10-year yield at 4.7555, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7930

News & Data:

• (USD) CB Consumer Confidence 92.9  to 94.2 expected
• (USD) New Home Sales 676K  to 682K expected

Markets Update:

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 opened 0.71% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.63% and the Topix added 0.39%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.38%, though the small-cap Kosdaq dipped 0.28%. In Thailand, the SET Index gained 0.4% after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra survived a no-confidence vote. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.75%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 remained flat. The Hang Seng Tech Index, tracking Hong Kong’s 30 largest tech firms, rose 0.84% as it hovered near correction territory.

Reports from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg indicate that U.S. tariffs set for April 2 may be more limited in scope. Trump also hinted at potential flexibility in his reciprocal tariff plans for trading partners. However, U.S. consumer confidence appears to be weakening. Morning Consult noted that as Trump prepares to escalate trade tensions, U.S. consumers face increased inflation concerns, fragile finances, and labor market risks. As a result, spending cuts are expected across all income brackets.

U.S. stock futures showed little movement after the S&P 500 recorded a modest gain, marking its third consecutive positive session. Overnight, the S&P 500 added 0.16% to close at 5,776.65, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.46% to 18,271.86, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 4.18 points to 42,587.50.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Durable Goods Orders m/m

The post Wednesday 26th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Gain Amid Hopes of Softer U.S. Tariffs first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 26 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

After increasing to an annual rate of 2.5% in December 2024 and January this year, the monthly CPI eased marginally to 2.4% in February. Not only did the latest print moderate from a four-month high, it also came in lower than market forecasts of 2.5% with categories such as food; housing; and electricity all rising at a slower pace. The ‘soft’ inflation print initially sent the Aussie as low as 0.6278 but it reversed swiftly to climb above the 0.6300 level, hitting 0.6310 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.K. both accelerated in January 2025, with the former jumping from an annual rate of 2.5% in the previous month to 3.0% while the latter spiked from 3.2% to 3.7%. Headline CPI recorded its highest reading since March 2024 as categories such as transport; food and non-alcoholic beverages; recreation and culture; and education led the price increases. Inflationary pressures are expected to remain persistent in February and a ‘hot’ print could trigger a surge in demand for the pound before the start of the European trading hours.

After increasing nearly 8.8M barrels over the prior two weeks, the API stockpiles registered its first draw in three weeks as 4.6M barrels of crude were removed from storage – easily exceeding market expectations of a 2.5M drawdown. Combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs against countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela, oil prices rose higher on concerns of tighter supplies with WTI oil making an overnight high of $69.68 per barrel. Should the EIA inventories also buck a three-week trend of higher inventory builds, oil prices could receive another tailwind later today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After declining in November and December of 2024, new orders for durable goods rose strongly in January of this year. Orders jumped 3.2% MoM with the rebound driven by sectors such as transportation equipment and capital goods. However, orders are now expected to decline 1.1% in February, signalling an inconsistent start to the new year for the manufacturing sector. A significantly larger drop could cause the dollar to lose some steam in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After declining in November and December of 2024, new orders for durable goods rose strongly in January of this year. Orders jumped 3.2% MoM with the rebound driven by sectors such as transportation equipment and capital goods. However, orders are now expected to decline 1.1% in February, signalling an inconsistent start to the new year for the manufacturing sector. A significantly larger drop could cause the dollar to lose some steam in the near term, potentially providing a lift for gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

After increasing to an annual rate of 2.5% in December 2024 and January this year, the monthly CPI eased marginally to 2.4% in February. Not only did the latest print moderate from a four-month high, it also came in lower than market forecasts of 2.5% with categories such as food; housing; and electricity all rising at a slower pace. The ‘soft’ inflation print initially sent the Aussie as low as 0.6278 but it reversed swiftly to climb above the 0.6300 level, hitting 0.6310 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After falling sharply at the end of last week, the Kiwi found a near-term floor around the level of 0.5700 over the last couple of days. Demand for the greenback could begin to taper on Wednesday, providing a lift for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Overhead pressures for the yen remained firmly intact as USD/JPY reached as high as 150.94 on Tuesday. However, this currency pair dipped under the level of 150 overnight. As Asian markets came online on Wednesday, USD/JPY stabilized around this level and it could resume its upward ascend as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Business confidence in Germany improved in March, rising from 85.3 in the previous month to 86.7 as companies grew more optimistic about the months ahead, following a historic debt deal to increase defence spending by easing strict rules and establishing a substantial infrastructure fund by the new German government. This latest reading marked the highest level since July while firms’ assessment of the current business situation improved and sentiment improved across all industries. Despite business confidence showing signs of green shoots, the euro remained under pressure as it declined for the fifth consecutive trading day – this currency pair was hovering around 1.0790 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc waning, USD/CHF has remained above the threshold of 0.8800 this week. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 0.8848 before easing by the end of the U.S. session. With the dollar seeing a renewed resurgence, USD/CHF could continue to grind higher on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.K. both accelerated in January 2025, with the former jumping from an annual rate of 2.5% in the previous month to 3.0% while the latter spiked from 3.2% to 3.7%. Headline CPI recorded its highest reading since March 2024 as categories such as transport; food and non-alcoholic beverages; recreation and culture; and education led the price increases. Inflationary pressures are expected to remain persistent in February and a ‘hot’ print could trigger a surge in demand for the pound before the start of the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Demand for the Loonie remained relatively strong as USD/CAD fell under 1.4300 on Tuesday. Rising oil prices have bolstered the Loonie, with Canada being one of the largest non-OPEC+ producers. This currency pair was floating around 1.4285 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After increasing nearly 8.8M barrels over the prior two weeks, the API stockpiles registered its first draw in three weeks as 4.6M barrels of crude were removed from storage – easily exceeding market expectations of a 2.5M drawdown. Combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs against countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela, oil prices rose higher on concerns of tighter supplies with WTI oil making an overnight high of $69.68 per barrel. Should the EIA inventories also buck a three-week trend of higher inventory builds, oil prices could receive another tailwind later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 26 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 104.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 103.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0860
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0687
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0951
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 161.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 160.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8337
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8310
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2876

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1.2779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 50% retracements, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3051
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 193.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 192.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8797

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8758
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8866
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 149.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 148.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish break below the pivot and potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4275

Supporting reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.4237
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4326
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6388
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5712

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5783

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 42,114.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 41,410.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,012.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,005.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 22,723.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,438.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,710.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,603.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,843.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 85,982.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 81,319.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,949.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1,832.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,132.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 70.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 68.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2,998.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 2,954.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,051.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 26th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Consumer confidence in the U.S. tumbled for the fourth successive month as consumers’ assessment of current and future business conditions weakened along with falling employment prospects. In addition, optimism about future income largely vanished due after holding up strongly over the past few months. Meanwhile, sales for new homes increased marginally from 664k in the previous month to 676k in February. Although sales missed the estimate of 682k, purchases for new homes have picked up over the past few months as mortgage rates declined from January’s highs. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that not all proposed tariffs set for the 2nd of April will be implemented as initially planned; some countries may receive exemptions. His comments have alleviated concerns about broader trade disruptions, leading to gains across major equity indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite amid optimism regarding economic resilience despite ongoing tariff discussions.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

After increasing to an annual rate of 2.5% in December 2024 and January this year, the monthly CPI eased marginally to 2.4%. Not only did the latest print moderate from a four-month high, it also came in lower than market forecasts of 2.5% with categories such as food; housing; and electricity all rising at a slower pace. The ‘soft’ inflation print initially sent the Aussie as low as 0.6278 but it reversed swiftly to climb above the 0.6300 level.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After declining in November and December of 2024, new orders for durable goods rose strongly in January of this year. Orders jumped 3.2% MoM with the rebound driven by sectors such as transportation equipment and capital goods. However, orders are now expected to decline 1.1% in February, signalling an inconsistent start to the new year for the manufacturing sector. A significantly larger drop could cause the dollar to lose some steam in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After declining in November and December of 2024, new orders for durable goods rose strongly in January of this year. Orders jumped 3.2% MoM with the rebound driven by sectors such as transportation equipment and capital goods. However, orders are now expected to decline 1.1% in February, signalling an inconsistent start to the new year for the manufacturing sector. A significantly larger drop could cause the dollar to lose some steam in the near term, potentially providing a lift for gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

After increasing to an annual rate of 2.5% in December 2024 and January this year, the monthly CPI eased marginally to 2.4%. Not only did the latest print moderate from a four-month high, it also came in lower than market forecasts of 2.5% with categories such as food; housing; and electricity all rising at a slower pace. The ‘soft’ inflation print initially sent the Aussie as low as 0.6278 but it reversed swiftly to climb above the 0.6300 level.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After falling sharply at the end of last week, the Kiwi found a near-term floor around the level of 0.5700 over the last couple of days. Demand for the greenback could begin to taper on Wednesday, providing a lift for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Overhead pressures for the yen remained firmly intact as USD/JPY reached as high as 150.94 on Tuesday. However, this currency pair dipped under the level of 150 overnight. As Asian markets came online on Wednesday, USD/JPY stabilized around this level and it could resume its upward ascend as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Business confidence in Germany improved in March, rising from 85.3 in the previous month to 86.7 as companies grew more optimistic about the months ahead, following a historic debt deal to increase defence spending by easing strict rules and establishing a substantial infrastructure fund by the new German government. This latest reading marked the highest level since July while firms’ assessment of the current business situation improved and sentiment improved across all industries. Despite business confidence showing signs of green shoots, the euro remained under pressure as it declined for the fifth consecutive trading day – this currency pair was hovering around 1.0790 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc waning, USD/CHF has remained above the threshold of 0.8800 this week. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 0.8848 before easing by the end of the U.S. session. With the dollar seeing a renewed resurgence, USD/CHF could continue to grind higher on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.K. both accelerated in January 2025, with the former jumping from an annual rate of 2.5% in the previous month to 3.0% while the latter spiked from 3.2% to 3.7%. Headline CPI recorded its highest reading since March 2024 as categories such as transport; food and non-alcoholic beverages; recreation and culture; and education led the price increases. Inflationary pressures are expected to remain persistent in February and a ‘hot’ print could trigger a surge in demand for the pound before the start of the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Demand for the Loonie remained relatively strong as USD/CAD fell under 1.4300 on Tuesday. Rising oil prices have bolstered the Loonie, with Canada being one of the largest non-OPEC+ producers. This currency pair was floating around 1.4285 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After increasing nearly 8.8M barrels over the prior two weeks, the API stockpiles registered its first draw in three weeks as 4.6M barrels of crude were removed from storage – easily exceeding market expectations of a 2.5M drawdown. Combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs against countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela, oil prices rose higher on concerns of tighter supplies with WTI oil making an overnight high of $69.68 per barrel. Should the EIA inventories also buck a three-week trend of higher inventory builds, oil prices could receive another tailwind later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.