Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.13%, Shanghai Composite up 0.61%, Hang Seng up 1.86% ASX down 0.34%
• Commodities : Gold at $2915.35 (0.93%), Silver at $32.75 (0.38%), Brent Oil at $75.19 (0.69%), WTI Oil at $71.54 (0.73%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.487, UK 10-year yield at 4.476, Germany 10-year yield at 2.377

News & Data:

• (CAD) Unemployment Rate  6.60% to 6.80% expected
• (CAD) Employment Change  76.0K vs 25.5K expected
• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  143K vs 169K expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance on Monday as rising trade tensions kept investors cautious. U.S. President Donald Trump stated he planned to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, fueling market uncertainty. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed flat at 38,801.17, while the Topix index edged down 0.15% to 2,733.01. The country’s loan growth slowed to 3% in January from December’s 3.1%. South Korea’s Kospi remained unchanged at 2,521.27, but the Kosdaq gained 0.91% to 749.67.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.67%, and China’s CSI 300 gained 0.11% after earlier losses. China’s consumer inflation hit a five-month high in January due to Lunar New Year spending, with the CPI rising 0.7% monthly and 0.5% annually, surpassing Reuters’ 0.4% estimate. Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 2.3% annually, exceeding the expected 2.1% drop. Indian markets extended losses from Friday after the Reserve Bank of India’s unexpected interest rate cut. The Nifty 50 fell 0.94%, while the BSE Sensex dropped 0.83%.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index hit a record high of 3,910.12 points, driven by gains in Singtel and major banks. The STI was up 0.68%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.34% to 8,482.80. The three key U.S. indexes fell Friday after Trump’s tariff announcement and inflation concerns. Markets were further pressured by consumer sentiment and jobs data, which pointed to rising inflation and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5% at its session high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 444.23 points, or 0.99%, to close at 44,303.40. The S&P 500 declined 0.95% to 6,025.99, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.36% to 19,523.40. Friday’s losses pushed major indexes into negative territory for the week.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

The post Monday 10th February 2025: Markets Mixed Amid Trade Tensions and Inflation Worries first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

It was a fairly quiet session as the dollar index (DXY) floated above 108 after gapping higher at today’s open while spot prices for gold remained elevated to edge towards $2,880/oz by midday in Asia. Meanwhile, crude oil prices ticked higher as traders weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time on all steel and aluminium imports. President Trump stated that he will announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the U.S.  on Monday, in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul – WTI oil briefly climbed above $71.50 per barrel during this session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking on the ECB Annual Report at the European Parliament in Strasbourg later today where her comments on Eurozone inflation and growth outlook are likely to impact the direction of the Euro. Apart from President Lagarde’s speech, there is no other major data scheduled for release on Monday.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

The weaker-than-expected NFP report and a decline in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey could weigh on the dollar on Monday. However, strong average hourly earnings and the falling unemployment rate should provide support for the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains supported due to weaker U.S. economic data and heightened global uncertainty due to trade tensions, creating an environment where safe-haven demand is likely to persist. This precious metal hovered above $2,860/oz at the beginning of the Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie gapped significantly lower after closing at 0.6266 last Friday. This currency pair tumbled to open at 0.6231 before staging a strong bounce to close this gap.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After closing at 0.5652 last Friday, the Kiwi dived noticeably lower as it opened at 0.5604 before rallying strongly to close this gap. However, overhead pressures for this currency pair remain and traders should remain cautious with regards to any further upward movement.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen waned last Friday as USD/JPY found its footing around above 151. This currency pair rose strongly as markets reopened on Monday and it could break above 152 should the recent demand for the dollar pick up further.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking on the ECB Annual Report at the European Parliament in Strasbourg later today where her comments on Eurozone inflation and growth outlook are likely to impact the direction of the Euro.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned in the second half of last week as USD/CHF marched strongly towards 0.9100. This currency pair broke above this level as markets reopened and is likely to remain elevated as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following last week’s dovish rate cut by the Bank of England last week, the pound remains under pressure as markets reopened this week. Cable was sliding towards 1.2370 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Following Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment figures in Canada, demand for the Loonie remained elevated as USD/CAD tumbled under 1.4300. However, this currency pair gapped higher at today’s open and was rising steadily towards 1.4380 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices remain subdued amid concerns over global demand stemming from slower economic growth and trade uncertainties. However, China’s slightly stronger CPI that was released over the weekend may provide some support, but overall sentiment remains bearish. WTI oil was edging towards $71.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish 

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 107.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 106.08
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 109.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.0490

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0087

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0677
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 156.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 156.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8374

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8227

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8464
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection,  indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.2613

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2244

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2809
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50 Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 189.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 183.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 194.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 0.9011

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 0.8918
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9214
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 154.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 149.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 156.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4279
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st support: 1.4093
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4476
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6300

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this resistance zone.

1st support: 0.6144

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6397
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5709

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this resistance zone.

1st support: 0.5548

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5798

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 43,298.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 41,777.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 45,042.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 21,293.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 20,427.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% and 61.8% retracements, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,237.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,930.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,815.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,113.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 101,637.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 91,742.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 106,444.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,805.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this resistance zone.

1st support: 2,066.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,311.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 7314
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 69.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 75.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 2890.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2789.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2993.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 10th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After rebounding strongly in the final two months of 2024 – especially with December’s figures being revised significantly higher from 256K to 307K -, January’s non-farm payrolls (NFPs) added just 143K jobs to the U.S. economy. Not only did the latest employment numbers mark the slowest growth in three months, but they also missed the market forecasts of 169K. Categories such as health care; retail trade; social assistance; and government employment led the job gains. On the bright side, the unemployment rate edged lower from 4.1% to 4.0%, registering its lowest level since last May. The mixed results injected extreme volatility for financial markets as the dollar index (DXY) swung wildly between 108.02 and 107.51 before stabilizing around 107.65 to climb higher to close above the 108-level last Friday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest the latest NFPs, the DXY gapped higher to open at 108.37 while spot prices for gold remained elevated to hover above $2,860/oz. Gold remains supported due to weaker U.S. economic data and heightened global uncertainty due to trade tensions, creating an environment where safe-haven demand is likely to persist.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

The weaker-than-expected NFP report and a decline in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey could weigh on the dollar on Monday. However, strong average hourly earnings and the falling unemployment rate should provide support for the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains supported due to weaker U.S. economic data and heightened global uncertainty due to trade tensions, creating an environment where safe-haven demand is likely to persist. This precious metal hovered above $2,860/oz at the beginning of the Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie gapped significantly lower after closing at 0.6266 last Friday. This currency pair tumbled to open at 0.6231 before staging a strong bounce to close this gap.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After closing at 0.5652 last Friday, the Kiwi dived noticeably lower as it opened at 0.5604 before rallying strongly to close this gap. However, overhead pressures for this currency pair remain and traders should remain cautious with regards to any further upward movement.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen waned last Friday as USD/JPY found its footing around above 151. This currency pair rose strongly as markets reopened on Monday and it could break above 152 should the recent demand for the dollar pick up further.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking on the ECB Annual Report at the European Parliament in Strasbourg later today where her comments on Eurozone inflation and growth outlook are likely to impact the direction of the Euro.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned in the second half of last week as USD/CHF marched strongly towards 0.9100. This currency pair broke above this level as markets reopened and is likely to remain elevated as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following last week’s dovish rate cut by the Bank of England last week, the pound remains under pressure as markets reopened this week. Cable was sliding towards 1.2370 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Following Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment figures in Canada, demand for the Loonie remained elevated as USD/CAD tumbled under 1.4300. However, this currency pair gapped higher at today’s open and was rising steadily towards 1.4380 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices remain subdued amid concerns over global demand stemming from slower economic growth and trade uncertainties. However, China’s slightly stronger CPI that was released over the weekend may provide some support, but overall sentiment remains bearish. WTI oil was edging towards $71.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Close Out the Week Lower – Nasdaq Down 1.36%

All three major US indices ended the week lower on Friday after President Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs and employment data came in mixed. The Dow Jones fell 0.99%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.95%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.36% on the day, locking in weekly losses for all three.

Treasury yields regained more of the losses seen earlier in the week, with the 2-year adding 7.7 basis points to rise to 4.289%, while the 10-year pushed 6 basis points higher to 4.495%. The dollar followed yields higher, with most major currencies dropping back into recent ranges.

Oil prices recovered some of their recent losses but remain near range lows, with Brent up 0.5% to $74.66 and WTI rising 0.55% to $71.00. Gold spiked to another fresh high following the NFP print but swiftly dropped back, closing up just 0.17% on the day at $2,859.40.

Data and Central Bank Updates in Focus for US Markets This Week

Markets have been largely dominated by geopolitical developments in recent weeks as the new President and administration settle into their roles. However, traders are now beginning to focus more on economic data and its implications for central bank policy.

Last week provided the first round of Tier 1 US data in the form of jobs reports, which still indicate a relatively resilient market. This week, attention shifts to inflation numbers. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, offering potential insights into the Fed’s stance on recent data and possible risks stemming from new policy decisions.

Several other FOMC members are also scheduled to speak this week, and with markets currently not expecting another rate cut until September, these updates could trigger volatility.

Quiet Start to the Week on the Economic Calendar

The macroeconomic event calendar is relatively quiet to start the week, with little in the way of Tier 1 data releases expected to move markets. However, comments from President Trump on Friday regarding further tariff action have been followed up today with indications that he plans to impose 25% levies on steel and aluminium, already leading to increased market volatility.

Over the weekend, Chinese data releases—including CPI and PPI figures—came in close to expectations, while new loans data is scheduled for release at some point during the Asian session today.

There is little else of note in the Asian session, and both the European and US sessions are expected to remain quiet. However, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is set to speak midway through the day, which could trigger some movement in the euro.

The post General Market Analysis – 10/02/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Traders are looking forward to another interesting trading week ahead, with a well-stocked macroeconomic event calendar likely to present plenty of trading opportunities. This week offers a good mix of central bank updates and data releases, with a strong emphasis once again on US data—particularly the CPI numbers, which are expected to be the highlight. Updates from the new US administration may also introduce potential challenges as the week progresses.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

There may be some movement at the Monday open following the release of Chinese inflation numbers over the weekend. However, as they were largely in line with expectations, their impact may be limited. Further Chinese data is due during the Asian session, with the latest New Loans figures set for release. Later in the day, we hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde, but apart from that, the calendar is relatively light for the first day of the trading week.

Japanese markets will be closed, and the Asian session is expected to be quiet. However, as we move through the other sessions, the focus will shift to central bank updates. Both the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey and the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell will be speaking during the day, with Powell addressing the Senate Banking Committee. Later, we also hear from Fed officials Bowman and Williams.

Wednesday has the potential to be the busiest day of the week, though most of the key events will take place once New York trading begins. The crucial US CPI update is the first major release of the session, followed by another appearance from Jerome Powell in Washington, D.C. The usual weekly US Crude Oil Inventory data will also be released, alongside speeches from FOMC members Bostic and Waller.

Inflation data will dominate all three trading sessions on Thursday. The Asian session begins with New Zealand’s Quarterly Inflation Expectations report. In Europe, the Swiss CPI numbers will be released around the market open, preceded by the UK’s GDP and Industrial Production figures. In the US, PPI data is scheduled for release shortly after the New York open, alongside the weekly Unemployment Claims report.

The week is expected to end on a quieter note in terms of macroeconomic updates. There are no significant releases scheduled for the Asian or European sessions, with only US Retail Sales data on the agenda once New York opens.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 10 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 10/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.43%, Shanghai Composite up 1.23%, Hang Seng up 0.96% ASX down 0.11%
• Commodities : Gold at $2886.35 (0.23%), Silver at $32.75 (0.38%), Brent Oil at $74.69 (0.59%), WTI Oil at $70.94 (0.43%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.449, UK 10-year yield at 4.482, Germany 10-year yield at 2.372

News & Data:

• (GBP) Official Bank Rate  4.50% vs 4.50% expected
• (USD) Unemployment Claims  219K vs 214K expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday as investors analyzed India’s interest rate decision and Japan’s household spending data. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded flat, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.44% and the Topix declined 0.39%. However, Japan’s household spending in December surged 2.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations of a 0.2% rise. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.17%, while the Kosdaq remained near the flatline. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.6%, and China’s CSI 300 advanced 0.77%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key interest rate for the first time in nearly five years, reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% to stimulate economic growth. India’s benchmark stock indexes, Nifty 50 and Sensex, remained flat, while the rupee slightly strengthened to 87.4 against the dollar after reaching an all-time low. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the decision in a livestreamed address, highlighting cooling inflation as a factor in the rate cut.

In the U.S., major stock indexes closed higher on Thursday as investors assessed corporate earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 6,083.57, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.51% to 19,791.99. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125.65 points (0.28%) to 44,747.63. The S&P 500 notched its third consecutive positive session, signaling investor optimism despite mixed economic signals.

Markets are now focused on the U.S. jobs report, set for release on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate 169,000 new jobs in January, a decline from December’s 256,000. The report is expected to provide insights into labor market trends and influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Unemployment Rate
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Non-Farm Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Rate

The post Friday 7th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Economic Updates first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

With Friday being non-farm payrolls (NFPs) day, trading activity was fairly quiet during this session and it could remain the same as European markets come online shortly. The dollar index (DXY) edged towards 108 while spot prices for gold retreated away from this morning’s high of $2,870.52/oz. However, trading volume is bound to pick up substantially as the clock inches closer to the release of the employment report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics later today.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Industrial production in Germany declined by 3% overall in 2024 as the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for most of the year with energy-intensive industries facing significant challenges. November’s production output had increased by 1.5% MoM, beating forecasts of 0.5%, but December’s forecast points to a decline of 0.7% MoM. The Euro has appreciated in the first week of February but further significant deterioration in industrial production could weigh on this currency.

Canada will release its equivalent of the U.S. non-farm payrolls at the same time as its neighbour to the south. Despite a weak economy and rising unemployment, job growth rebounded strongly as 91K jobs were added to the economy in December. However, January’s forecasts point to a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.7% to 6.8%.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

It is a quiet calendar for the Aussie but this currency pair will likely spring into life later today with the release of the BLS employment report during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi could face a relatively quiet trading environment during the Asian and European trading hours before markets are jolted into action as the non-farm payrolls report is dropped during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen remains intact with hawkish expectations from the BoJ arising from a combination of robust wage growth and persistent inflation in Japan. USD/JPY dived under 151.50 overnight and this currency pair is all but certain to register a fourth successive week of decline.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany Industrial Production (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial production declined by 3% overall in 2024 as the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for most of the year with energy-intensive industries facing significant challenges. November’s production output had increased by 1.5% MoM, beating forecasts of 0.5%, but December’s forecast points to a decline of 0.7% MoM. The Euro has appreciated in the first week of February but further significant deterioration in industrial production could weigh on this currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned on Wednesday as USD/CHF found its footing just above the threshold of 0.9000 to rise to a high of 0.9061 on Thursday. This currency pair should continue to climb higher on Friday but is poised to close the week in the red.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 bps while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps. With inflationary pressures progressing towards the target of 2% and the growth forecast for 2025 significantly downgraded, it paved the way for this central bank to cut rates at the first board meeting of 2025. The Pound had weakened in early Thursday as Cable tumbled under 1.2400. However, it stabilized around 1.2360 before climbing strongly to hit an overnight high of 1.2455 as the BoE conveyed a patient outlook concerning future monetary policy action, noting that inflation is following a bumpy path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada will release its equivalent of the U.S. non-farm payrolls at the same time as its neighbour to the south. Despite a weak economy and rising unemployment, job growth rebounded strongly as 91K jobs were added to the economy in December. However, January’s forecasts point to a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.7% to 6.8%. The Loonie will no doubt face extreme volatility during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Escalating global trade tensions coupled with rising U.S. inventories will ensure that crude oil prices will notch its third consecutive week of decline. WTI oil has shed over 8.5% over this period as it hovered around $70.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Friday – overhead pressures for this commodity are likely to persist as the final trading day comes to a close.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish 

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 107.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 106.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 108.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.0461

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0345

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0534
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 158.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 156.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns close to the 161.8%  Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8376

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8272

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8444
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance,  indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.2609

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2367

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2718
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 190.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 188.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 193.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.9092

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8974
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9198
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 151.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 149.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 153.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4279
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 1.4178
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4404
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6255

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6182

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6323
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5716

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5628

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5781

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 45,078.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 43,819.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 45,779.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,994.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,525.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,237.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,039.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,923.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,123.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,903.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,857.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,901.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,431.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 72.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 70.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 73.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 2828.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 2776.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2881.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 7th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 bps while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps. With inflationary pressures progressing towards the target of 2% and the growth forecast for 2025 significantly downgraded, it paved the way for this central bank to cut rates at the first board meeting of 2025. The Pound had weakened in early Thursday as Cable tumbled under 1.2400. However, it stabilized around 1.2360 before climbing strongly to hit an overnight high of 1.2455 as the BoE conveyed a patient outlook concerning future monetary policy action, noting that inflation is following a bumpy path.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest the BoE’s latest actions and the ongoing trade tensions, safe-haven assets like gold are likely to remain supported. Spot gold was rising strongly towards the all-time high of $2,882.27/oz that was recorded this Wednesday while crude oil prices appear to have found a temporary floor. WTI oil found its footing around $70 per barrel and was edging higher during this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

It is a quiet calendar for the Aussie but this currency pair will likely spring into life later today with the release of the BLS employment report during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi could face a relatively quiet trading environment during the Asian and European trading hours before markets are jolted into action as the non-farm payrolls report is dropped during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen remains intact with hawkish expectations from the BoJ arising from a combination of robust wage growth and persistent inflation in Japan. USD/JPY dived under 151.50 overnight and this currency pair is all but certain to register a fourth successive week of decline.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany Industrial Production (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial production declined by 3% overall in 2024 as the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for most of the year with energy-intensive industries facing significant challenges. November’s production output had increased by 1.5% MoM, beating forecasts of 0.5%, but December’s forecast points to a decline of 0.7% MoM. The Euro has appreciated in the first week of February but further significant deterioration in industrial production could weigh on this currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned on Wednesday as USD/CHF found its footing just above the threshold of 0.9000 to rise to a high of 0.9061 on Thursday. This currency pair should continue to climb higher on Friday but is poised to close the week in the red.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 bps while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps. With inflationary pressures progressing towards the target of 2% and the growth forecast for 2025 significantly downgraded, it paved the way for this central bank to cut rates at the first board meeting of 2025. The Pound had weakened in early Thursday as Cable tumbled under 1.2400. However, it stabilized around 1.2360 before climbing strongly to hit an overnight high of 1.2455 as the BoE conveyed a patient outlook concerning future monetary policy action, noting that inflation is following a bumpy path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures..
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada will release its equivalent of the U.S. non-farm payrolls at the same time as its neighbour to the south. Despite a weak economy and rising unemployment, job growth rebounded strongly as 91K jobs were added to the economy in December. However, January’s forecasts point to a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.7% to 6.8%. The Loonie will no doubt face extreme volatility during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Escalating global trade tensions coupled with rising U.S. inventories will ensure that crude oil prices will notch its third consecutive week of decline. WTI oil has shed over 8.5% over this period as it hovered around $70.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Friday – overhead pressures for this commodity are likely to persist as the final trading day comes to a close.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Mixed Ahead of Non-Farms – Nasdaq Up 0.5%

US stock indices experienced a mixed day in choppy trading yesterday, as investors continued to digest earnings updates and looked ahead to today’s key employment figures. The Dow closed down 0.28%, while the S&P and Nasdaq finished the day in positive territory, closing up 0.36% and 0.51%, respectively.

US Treasury yields regained some of their recent losses, with the 2-year yield adding 2.7 basis points to rise to 4.214%, while the benchmark 10-year yield gained 1.8 basis points, reaching 4.436%. The dollar also strengthened, with major currencies retreating into recent ranges, as the DXY edged up 0.1% to 107.69.

Oil prices declined once again after former President Trump reiterated his intention to increase US production, with Brent falling 0.51% to $74.23 and WTI down 0.72% to $70.52 per barrel. Gold pulled back from recent record highs but remains elevated, closing 0.41% lower on the day at $2,855.07.

Non-Farms in Focus for FX Traders Today

Traders are preparing for a classic Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) day, with the primary market focus shifting to the employment report shortly after the New York open. While geopolitical developments have dominated market flows this week, today’s US jobs data is expected to be the key driver of sentiment, providing insight into the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

The dollar has faced significant pressure this week as concerns over tariffs receded. However, strong jobs data could dampen expectations of Fed rate cuts, potentially pushing the dollar higher. Last month’s robust 256k NFP print surprised the market, and a similar result today could have an even greater impact. The consensus forecast anticipates a 169k print, but any figure exceeding 200k could trigger a sharp dollar rally, reversing recent losses.

Calm Markets Ahead of the Non-Farm Storm

Today’s market focus is firmly on US employment data, with trading expected to remain subdued in the early sessions before volatility picks up after the New York open. Market activity was relatively muted in the final session yesterday, particularly compared to the turbulence seen earlier in the week, setting the stage for a quiet Asian session with rangebound conditions.

There are no significant economic releases in the European session, meaning traders will be looking ahead to the key US data. Expectations are for the headline NFP to show an increase of 169k jobs last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% month-on-month. Any significant deviation from these expectations is likely to trigger sharp market movements.

Canadian employment data will also be released alongside the US report, but aside from its impact on CAD traders, it is expected to be largely overshadowed as the market remains focused on the US jobs figures.

The post General Market Analysis – 07/02/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.