IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Japanese markets reopened this morning following Tuesday’s closure in observance of National Foundation Day, signalling a resumption of regular liquidity for the yen. USD/JPY rose strongly as it surged from 152.40 towards 153.50, with the widening gap between the U.S. and Japanese bond yields continuing to drive speculative selling in the yen.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Looking at U.S. crude oil inventories, the API stockpiles swelled for the fourth consecutive week, signalling weaker demand. More than 9M barrels of crude were added to storage in the latest report following an increase of 5M in the previous week. The EIA report is due for release on Wednesday and should inventories continue to build further, oil prices could likely face strong headwinds again. After hitting a high of $73.68 per barrel on Tuesday, WTI oil slipped under $73 by midday in Asia.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After accelerating from an annual rate of 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December 2024, headline consumer inflation in the U.S. is now expected to ‘stall’ in January 2025. Forecasts point to headline CPI remaining unchanged from the previous month, highlighting dissipating price pressures in January. Should the overall result point to a soft CPI print, demand for the greenback could wane even further. After which, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resumes the second and final day of his testimony on Wednesday, this time before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After accelerating from an annual rate of 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December 2024, headline consumer inflation in the U.S. is expected to ‘stall’ in January 2025. Forecasts point to headline CPI remaining unchanged from the previous month, highlighting dissipating price pressures in January. Should the overall result point to a soft CPI print, demand for the greenback could wane even further. After which, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resumes the second and final day of his testimony on Wednesday, this time before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him. Although spot prices for gold retreated from Monday’s record high, this precious metal is likely to see continued demand driven by safe-haven flows due to the newly imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports destined for the United States.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Waning demand for the greenback kept the Aussie elevated overnight. This currency breached above 0.6300 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday and it could continue to edge higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Just like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi remained supported as it climbed above 0.5650 at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session. This currency pair should continue its upward momentum as demand for the dollar weakens.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese markets reopened this morning following Tuesday’s closure in observance of National Foundation Day, signalling a resumption of regular liquidity for the yen. USD/JPY rose strongly as it surged from 152.40 towards 153.50, with the widening gap between the U.S. and Japanese bond yields continuing to drive speculative selling in the yen.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro hit an overnight high of 1.0381 as demand for the greenback faltered. This currency pair pulled back slightly but it is likely to resume its ascend on Wednesday, especially if U.S. consumer inflation cools.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The widening gap between the U.S. and Swiss bond yields continues to drive speculative selling in the franc, keeping USD/CHF above the 0.9100 mark. This currency pair reached an overnight high of 0.9140 and looks set to notch its fifth successive day of higher gains.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

During his speech at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech emphasized a cautious approach to further rate cuts as inflation expectations ticked up in recent months, although noting that this uptick should be temporary. Despite the guarded tone, the Pound appreciated as demand for the greenback faltered under rising concerns of a global trade war. Cable hit an overnight high of 1.2452 and is likely to remain elevated as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Rising concerns of a global trade war have tempered demand for the U.S. dollar, driving USD/CAD towards 1.4300. This threshold has served as a key support since early January and a clean break below it could see further downside for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices rose strongly at the beginning of this week as U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran’s oil exports elevated concerns on supply disruptions for this commodity. WTI oil rallied more than 3% over this period to hit an overnight high of $73.68 per barrel but pulled back sharply as the API stockpiles swelled for the fourth consecutive week, a sign of weaker demand in the United States. More than 9M barrels of crude were added to storage in the latest report following an increase of 5M in the previous week. Should the EIA inventories continue to build further, oil prices could likely face strong headwinds again in the latter part of Wednesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish 

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 107.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 107.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 108.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.0325

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 1.0259

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0444
Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 157.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 155.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8372

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8270

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8462
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and drop toward  the 1st support

Pivot: 1.2468

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2306

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2571
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 191.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 189.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 194.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 0.9011

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 0.8902
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9181
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 153.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 151.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 155.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4279
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 1.4178
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4404
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish break through the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6292

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6225

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6346
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish continuation through the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5590

Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5538

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5693

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 44,618.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 43,835.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 44,978.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish continuation through the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 21,948.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 21,528.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,237.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. a 61.8% projection and a 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,005.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,919.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,099.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish break through this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,852.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where the strong bearish momentum could drive the price lower.

1st support: 90,845.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,855.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,028.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 73.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 71.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 75.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 2910.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2882.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2938.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 12th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hearing before the Senate Banking Committee highlighted several key points such as policy flexibility, inflation and the strength of the U.S. economy. Powell emphasized that there is no rush to adjust the current stance of monetary policy, indicating a patient approach to policy adjustments as inflation continues to evade the Fed’s target of 2% while economic activity remains robust and the labour market showed resilience, despite some softness in recent months. Despite communicating a neutral outlook on future monetary policy action, the dollar index (DXY) drifted lower as the developments surrounding global trade tariffs overshadowed Powell’s testimony.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japanese markets reopened this morning following Tuesday’s closure in observance of National Foundation Day, signalling a resumption of regular liquidity for the yen. USD/JPY rose strongly as it surged from 152.40 towards 153.50, with the widening gap between the U.S. and Japanese bond yields continuing to drive speculative selling in the yen.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After accelerating from an annual rate of 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December 2024, headline consumer inflation in the U.S. is now expected to ‘stall’ in January 2025. Forecasts point to headline CPI remaining unchanged from the previous month, highlighting dissipating price pressures in January. Should the overall result point to a soft CPI print, demand for the greenback could wane even further. After which, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resumes the second and final day of his testimony on Wednesday, this time before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After accelerating from an annual rate of 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December 2024, headline consumer inflation in the U.S. is expected to ‘stall’ in January 2025. Forecasts point to headline CPI remaining unchanged from the previous month, highlighting dissipating price pressures in January. Should the overall result point to a soft CPI print, demand for the greenback could wane even further. After which, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resumes the second and final day of his testimony on Wednesday, this time before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him. Although spot prices for gold retreated from Monday’s record high, this precious metal is likely to see continued demand driven by safe-haven flows due to the newly imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports destined for the United States.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Waning demand for the greenback kept the Aussie elevated overnight. This currency breached above 0.6300 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday and it could continue to edge higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Just like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi remained supported as it climbed above 0.5650 at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session. This currency pair should continue its upward momentum as demand for the dollar weakens.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese markets reopened this morning following Tuesday’s closure in observance of National Foundation Day, signalling a resumption of regular liquidity for the yen. USD/JPY rose strongly as it surged from 152.40 towards 153.50, with the widening gap between the U.S. and Japanese bond yields continuing to drive speculative selling in the yen.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro hit an overnight high of 1.0381 as demand for the greenback faltered. This currency pair pulled back slightly but it is likely to resume its ascend on Wednesday, especially if U.S. consumer inflation cools.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The widening gap between the U.S. and Swiss bond yields continues to drive speculative selling in the franc, keeping USD/CHF above the 0.9100 mark. This currency pair reached an overnight high of 0.9140 and looks set to notch its fifth successive day of higher gains.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

During his speech at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech emphasized a cautious approach to further rate cuts as inflation expectations ticked up in recent months, although noting that this uptick should be temporary. Despite the guarded tone, the Pound appreciated as demand for the greenback faltered under rising concerns of a global trade war. Cable hit an overnight high of 1.2452 and is likely to remain elevated as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Rising concerns of a global trade war have tempered demand for the U.S. dollar, driving USD/CAD towards 1.4300. This threshold has served as a key support since early January and a clean break below it could see further downside for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices rose strongly at the beginning of this week as U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran’s oil exports elevated concerns on supply disruptions for this commodity. WTI oil rallied more than 3% over this period to hit an overnight high of $73.68 per barrel but pulled back sharply as the API stockpiles swelled for the fourth consecutive week, a sign of weaker demand in the United States. More than 9M barrels of crude were added to storage in the latest report following an increase of 5M in the previous week. Should the EIA inventories continue to build further, oil prices could likely face strong headwinds again in the latter part of Wednesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Foreign exchange traders are preparing for a busy final session today, with the key US CPI data due to come out early in a New York session that is likely to be preceded by relatively quiet days in both Asia and Europe. Expectations are for a 0.3% month-on-month increase for the CPI and Core CPI numbers and a 2.9% increase for the year-on-year data. Anything off those prints should see big moves in the market, and anything more than 0.2% will see large moves. Stronger data will put the Fed under pressure to pull interest rate expectations further down the track and will see the dollar take off, whilst weaker prints will see a continuation of recent dollar weakness and pull rate cut expectations in.

Cable is looking like one of the best pairs to trade on the data, and we could see significant moves if we do get those prints off expectations. It has rallied nicely up to levels just north of 1.2400, and a weaker result will see it challenge the topside resistance trendline on the hourly chart near 1.2500. A stronger number opens the way for a move swiftly back to recent levels, with support at 1.2320.

Resistance 2: 1.2549 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 1.2500 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.2320 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 1.2242 – February Low

The post Trade Cable on the US CPI Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Tread Water Ahead of Data – Nasdaq Down 0.3%

US markets experienced a mixed session yesterday as investors looked ahead to tonight’s key inflation data. The three major stock indices all closed relatively flat, with the Dow up 0.28%, the S&P edging just 0.03% higher, and the Nasdaq declining by 0.36%. The usual correlation between US Treasury yields and the dollar failed to materialise, with the dollar falling on the day—the DXY down 0.37%—while yields pushed higher, with the 2-year yield up 0.90 basis points to 4.283% and the 10-year yield rising 3.9 basis points to 4.535%.

Oil prices moved higher within recent ranges as sanctions influenced supply concerns, weighing on sentiment. Brent rose 1.29% to $76.85, while WTI climbed 1.16% to $73.16. Meanwhile, gold took a breather after its recent meteoric rise, with some profit-taking flows emerging ahead of the US data, finishing down just 0.1% on the day at $2,896.62.

Markets Focus on Data and Central Banks

There appears to have been a notable shift in market reactions to geopolitical updates this week, perhaps indicating a change in investor focus across financial products. In recent weeks, we have seen significant spikes in asset prices following updates from President Trump and the new administration, particularly regarding tariffs. However, the market impact of such developments seems to have diminished markedly this week. This suggests an adjustment to the new ‘norm’—while traders will still react strongly to confirmed policy updates, they now seem to be prioritising underlying fundamentals.

As a result, market focus has returned to economic data, with tonight’s key CPI release likely to be a major catalyst for price movements.

Traders Focus on US Session in the Day Ahead

Traders expect relatively quiet and range-bound conditions during the first two sessions of the day, with little scheduled on the event calendar ahead of the main data release once New York opens. The US CPI numbers are undoubtedly the highlight of the day, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase for both CPI and Core CPI, and a 2.9% year-on-year rise. Any deviation from these forecasts is likely to trigger significant market moves, particularly in anticipation of future Fed interest rate decisions.

Jerome Powell will also deliver the second day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress today, though he is expected to maintain his recent stance. Later in the day, oil traders will be closely watching the latest US inventory data for further market cues.

The post General Market Analysis – 12/02/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.13%, Shanghai Composite up 0.61%, Hang Seng up 1.86% ASX down 0.34%
• Commodities : Gold at $2915.35 (0.93%), Silver at $32.75 (0.38%), Brent Oil at $75.19 (0.69%), WTI Oil at $71.54 (0.73%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.487, UK 10-year yield at 4.476, Germany 10-year yield at 2.377

News & Data:

• (EUR) Sentix Investor Confidence  -12.7 to -16.4 expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors evaluated U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff measures. On Monday, Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., raising concerns about potential trade tensions.

In response, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained flat, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.72% and the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.35%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.56%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.36%. Meanwhile, Japan’s markets were closed due to a public holiday.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.44% after reaching a record intraday high of 3,910.12 on Monday. India’s Nifty 50 dropped 0.32%, while the BSE Sensex hovered near the flatline. U.S. markets, however, saw gains, with major indices closing higher as tech stocks outperformed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 167.01 points, or 0.38%, to close at 44,470.41, boosted by a 4.8% surge in McDonald’s shares. The S&P 500 climbed 0.67% to 6,066.44, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.98% to reach 19,714.27.

Investors are now focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to testify before Congress later in the day. His remarks could provide insights into future monetary policy and economic outlook, influencing market sentiment further.

Upcoming Events: 

• 03:00 PM GMT – USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies

The post Tuesday 11th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Investors Weigh U.S. Tariffs and Fed Outlook first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

After declining in the final two months of 2024, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence survey improved in January as it rose 4 points. However, with the prospect of further trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its major trading partners such as China – which is Australia’s largest trading partner – business sentiment could deteriorate in February. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 by midday in Asian hours.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?” at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in London. Following last week’s reduction in the official bank rate, traders will be looking out for further insights from Governor Bailey with regards to the outlook on future monetary policy action.

Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have swelled over the last three weeks – a sign of weaker demand – as over 5M barrels of crude were added to inventories last week. Should the API stocks continue to build further, it is likely that oil prices will face strong headwinds late Tuesday.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will begin his two-day testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on topics such as monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will begin his two-day testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on topics such as monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him. Gold continues to hit record highs, with spot prices surpassing $2,900/oz driven by safe-haven flows due to the newly imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports destined for the United States.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

NAB Business Confidence (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

After declining in the final two months of 2024, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence survey improved in January as it rose 4 points. However, with the prospect of further trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its major trading partners such as China – which is Australia’s largest trading partner – business sentiment could deteriorate in February. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 in early trading on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After gapping lower on Monday, the Kiwi rallied strongly before running out of steam around 0.5660 by the end of the U.S. session. Overhead pressures remain intact for this currency pair as it dipped under 0.5640 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

National Foundation Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of National Foundation Day so traders should expect lower liquidity and irregular volatility on Tuesday, especially during the Asian trading hours. Following four weeks of an appreciating yen, demand for this currency appeared to have waned on Monday pushing USD/JPY above the 152 mark. However, that move was short-lived as this currency pair dipped under this level at the beginning of Tuesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Following ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Monday where she indicated confidence that inflation is set to return to their medium-term target of 2% in 2025 and the potential negative impact on the Eurozone economy due to trade tariffs, the Euro remained capped under 1.0350 overnight and the bearish sentiment should persist on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc remaining weak, USD/CHF stayed elevated above 0.9100 on Monday. This currency pair is likely to grind higher on Tuesday as rising concerns on a global trade war could weaken the franc further, especially if high tariffs are imposed on the European Union.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?” at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in London. Following last week’s reduction in the official bank rate, traders will be looking out for further insights from Governor Bailey with regards to the outlook on future monetary policy action. Cable has declined over the past three consecutive trading days and it looks set to head further south on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie experienced extreme volatility as tariffs were imposed on Canadian imports into the U.S. followed by a walk-back by President Donald Trump as he agreed to a 30-day suspension. USD/CAD has hovered around 1.4300 over the past few trading days as markets calmed down but traders should be prepared for new headlines that could spark further volatility for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (9:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After declining for three successive weeks, crude oil prices stabilized on Monday before rebounding strongly despite rising concerns on global trade tariffs which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand – WTI oil rallied 2% overnight as it broke above the $72 mark. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have swelled over the last three weeks – a sign of weaker demand – as over 5M barrels of crude were added to inventories last week. Should the API stocks continue to build further, it is likely that oil prices will face strong headwinds late Tuesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish 

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 107.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 107.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 108.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.0346

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0193

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0460
Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 155.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 154.42

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 157.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8372

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8222

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8462
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.2468

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2306

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2306
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 189.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1834.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 194.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 0.9011

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 0.8902
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9181
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 154.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 151.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 155.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4404
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4287
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4488
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6225

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6177

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6297
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5590

Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5538

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5656

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 44,618.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 43,835.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 44,978.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,948.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,528.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,237.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. a 61.8% projection and a 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,005.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,919.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,099.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 94,955.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 92,857.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,855.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,028.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 73.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 71.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 75.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 2938.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2884

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 3017.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 11th February 2025:Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The markets were influenced by last Friday’s ‘soft’ non-farm payrolls and new tariff announcements on industrial metals such as steel and aluminium. Growing concerns on a global trade war have contributed to a somewhat risk-off sentiment, favouring safe-haven assets such as gold while placing pressure on the major indices. The dollar remained bid as the dollar index (DXY) hit an overnight high of 108.44 before pulling back slightly to settle around 108.30 by the end of this session.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of National Foundation Day so traders should expect lower liquidity and irregular volatility on Tuesday, especially during the Asian trading hours. Following four weeks of an appreciating yen, demand for this currency appeared to have waned on Monday pushing USD/JPY above the 152 mark. However, that move was short-lived as this currency pair dipped under this level at the beginning of this session.

After declining in the final two months of 2024, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence survey improved in January as it rose 4 points. However, with the prospect of further trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its major trading partners such as China – which is Australia’s largest trading partner – business sentiment could deteriorate in February. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will begin his two-day testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on topics such as monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will begin his two-day testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington D.C. where he will first deliver a prepared statement before facing a question-and-answer session. Powell’s responses on topics such as monetary policy, inflation and the labour market are likely to increase market volatility, especially if there are any surprises or shifts from him. Gold continues to hit record highs, with spot prices surpassing $2,900/oz driven by safe-haven flows due to the newly imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports destined for the United States.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

NAB Business Confidence (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

After declining in the final two months of 2024, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence survey improved in January as it rose 4 points. However, with the prospect of further trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its major trading partners such as China – which is Australia’s largest trading partner – business sentiment could deteriorate in February. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 in early trading on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After gapping lower on Monday, the Kiwi rallied strongly before running out of steam around 0.5660 by the end of the U.S. session. Overhead pressures remain intact for this currency pair as it dipped under 0.5640 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

National Foundation Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of National Foundation Day so traders should expect lower liquidity and irregular volatility on Tuesday, especially during the Asian trading hours. Following four weeks of an appreciating yen, demand for this currency appeared to have waned on Monday pushing USD/JPY above the 152 mark. However, that move was short-lived as this currency pair dipped under this level at the beginning of Tuesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Following ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Monday where she indicated confidence that inflation is set to return to their medium-term target of 2% in 2025 and the potential negative impact on the Eurozone economy due to trade tariffs, the Euro remained capped under 1.0350 overnight and the bearish sentiment should persist on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc remaining weak, USD/CHF stayed elevated above 0.9100 on Monday. This currency pair is likely to grind higher on Tuesday as rising concerns on a global trade war could weaken the franc further, especially if high tariffs are imposed on the European Union.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?” at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in London. Following last week’s reduction in the official bank rate, traders will be looking out for further insights from Governor Bailey with regards to the outlook on future monetary policy action. Cable has declined over the past three consecutive trading days and it looks set to head further south on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie experienced extreme volatility as tariffs were imposed on Canadian imports into the U.S. followed by a walk-back by President Donald Trump as he agreed to a 30-day suspension. USD/CAD has hovered around 1.4300 over the past few trading days as markets calmed down but traders should be prepared for new headlines that could spark further volatility for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (9:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After declining for three successive weeks, crude oil prices stabilized on Monday before rebounding strongly despite rising concerns on global trade tariffs which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand – WTI oil rallied 2% overnight as it broke above the $72 mark. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have swelled over the last three weeks – a sign of weaker demand – as over 5M barrels of crude were added to inventories last week. Should the API stocks continue to build further, it is likely that oil prices will face strong headwinds late Tuesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global, a global leader in online trading and investing, is pleased to announce it has won ‘Best Forex/CFD Broker in APAC 2024’ at the prestigious TradingView awards. 

Recognized as a benchmark for excellence in the industry, the annual TradingView Broker Awards celebrates the world’s top brokers, showcasing their capabilities over the past 12 months. Winners are selected based on extensive feedback from traders, making this highly regarded accolade a true testament to brokers that consistently uphold the highest service standards. It reinforces our commitment to empowering clients with more informed trading decisions and delivering a superior trading experience across indices, bonds, Forex pairs, commodities, stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies.

Commenting on the news, Chief Marketing Officer Tony Philip, shared: 

“We’re honored to receive this prestigious award from the TradingView community – especially just 10 months after our integration with the charting platform in March 2024.

Since our inception in 2007, our mission has remained clear: enhancing the customer experience and providing the best trading conditions. We’re excited to continue building on these achievements. It fuels our commitment to continuous innovation, ensuring our clients have the resources, technology, and support to thrive in today’s dynamic trading environment.”

The post IC Markets Global named ‘Best Forex/CFD Broker in APAC 2024’ at the TradingView Awards first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 11/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.