Stocks Drive Higher on Tariff Optimism – Nasdaq Surges Over 2%

US stocks pushed higher on the first trading day of the week yesterday as investors reacted with greater optimism to President Trump’s more focused tariff proposals. The Dow gained 1.42%, the S&P 1.76%, and mega caps helped the Nasdaq drive 2.27% higher. US Treasury yields also rose on the back of the tariff news, with the 10-year hitting a six-day high. They closed 8.8 basis points higher at 4.335%, while the 2-year added 8.6 basis points to move up to 4.335%. The dollar gained ground against most of the majors, with USD/JPY notably pushing back above the 150.00 level as the DXY increased by 0.17% to 104.33. Oil prices rose again after President Trump advised that he would place tariffs on any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela, with Brent up 1.30% to $73.10 and WTI up 1.22% to $69.11. Gold drifted lower again due to the stronger dollar, dropping 0.35% on the day to close at $3,012.71.

Black Gold on the Move – and More to Come

Oil prices have experienced significant volatility in the first quarter of 2025, and traders anticipate further movement as the year progresses, with the potential for large percentage gains or losses depending on how certain geopolitical issues unfold. President Trump’s call yesterday to place tariffs on any country purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela could see last night’s rise continue for a few sessions, particularly with major consumers such as China and India on that list. Additional pressure on Iran could also affect the supply side. However, there is some balance from the US, with the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine leading to the return of Russian oil to the market, which could push prices lower, as could OPEC+ production increases. As always with geopolitical influences on markets, there are many moving parts, and updates can lead to more volatility rather than fundamental trends. Many expect choppy conditions to persist until any form of certainty returns.

Quieter Trading Day Ahead for Investors

Wall Street kicked off the trading week in positive form yesterday, with all three major indices pushing strongly higher on the back of increased optimism regarding US tariffs after President Trump pledged a more targeted approach on Friday. Today is expected to be a quieter day on the macroeconomic event calendar following yesterday’s raft of PMI numbers, but traders still anticipate further movement across financial products. There is little scheduled for the Asian session today, although yen traders will monitor the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the Bank of Japan midway through the morning. The European session sees the release of the latest German IFO Business Climate data, which could lead to some movement in the euro. A few tier-two numbers are also due for release from the US once New York opens. CB Consumer Confidence data is likely the main attraction, with New Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index also potential market movers. However, in the current environment, most traders expect updates on tariffs from the President to have a greater impact.

The post General Market Analysis – 25/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.01%, Shanghai Composite down 0.29%, Hang Seng down 0.02% ASX up 0.07%
• Commodities : Gold at $3053.35 (0.60%), Silver at $33.7 (0.68%), Brent Oil at $71.35 (0.5%), WTI Oil at $68.1 (0.54%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.281, UK 10-year yield at 4.7120, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7650

News & Data:

• (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2%  to -0.1% expected
• (CAD) Retail Sales m/m -0.6%  to -0.4% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets mostly traded higher on Monday as investors monitored the looming April 2 tariff deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped slightly by 0.07%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.13%, while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.74% after the country’s Constitutional Court dismissed the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched up 0.14%, whereas the broader Topix slipped 0.24%. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.10%, while the mainland CSI 300 remained flat following Premier Li Qiang’s caution over “rising instability” and his call for open markets.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures pointed to further gains, suggesting a potential continuation of last week’s positive momentum. On Friday, major U.S. stock indexes rebounded after Trump hinted at possible “flexibility” regarding tariffs, though he reaffirmed the April 2 deadline for reciprocal measures. The S&P 500 edged up 0.08% to 5,667.56, breaking a four-week losing streak driven by trade tensions, recession concerns, and a selloff in tech stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.52% to 17,784.05, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 32.03 points, or 0.08%, closing at 41,985.35. Investors remain cautious as trade policies and economic uncertainties continue to shape market movements.

Markets in Asia are reacting to global economic developments, with investors keeping a close eye on trade policies and geopolitical risks. As the tariff deadline nears, volatility could increase across global markets, affecting investor sentiment and future market trends.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
• 01:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Services PMI

The post Monday 24th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets cautious as U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Business activity in Japan declined for the first time in five months as the Composite PMI tumbled from 52.0 in the previous month to 48.5 in March, based on flash estimates. Underlying data showed that this was partly due to a fresh fall in service sector activity, while manufacturing output declined at the quickest pace for a year. The reduction in overall activity coincided with a slight drop in composite new business, with firms noting that strong inflationary pressure had dampened sales and made some customers hesitant to commit to orders. Growth of new business slowed notably at services companies and fell solidly at goods producers. This marked the first drop in private sector activity since October and the sharpest contraction since February 2022. The yen sold off as weak PMI activity, combined with a potential slowdown in economic growth, may nudge the Bank of Japan towards another pause at its next meeting – USD/JPY was rising strongly towards 150 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The flash PMI report for the Euro Area is once again expected to show a dichotomy between the manufacturing and services sectors. Although manufacturing activity has remained in contraction since mid-2022, there have been signs of improvement over the last couple of months. Should overall PMI activity be boosted by the latest fiscal plans by Germany and the other major European nations, the euro could climb above 1.0900 once again.

Service-producing businesses in the U.K. are once again predicted to pull up overall PMI activity as the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory. Demand for the pound could receive a boost should PMI activity pick up strongly in March. Later on, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will be speaking about the U.K. economy at the University of Leicester Chancellor’s Distinguished Lecture Series in England where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s monetary policy announcement, Governor Bailey could shed further insights on future policy action by this central bank.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The flash report for Composite PMI is expected to show both the manufacturing and services sector expand in March, albeit at a slower pace. With the ongoing trade policy uncertainties lingering in the background and potentially escalating in the coming weeks, economic output in the U.S. could take a hit in the near-term. Demand for the greenback picked up last week, providing a floor for the DXY at around the 103.30 mark before climbing above 104 last Friday. Demand could continue to gain further traction as the new trading week gets underway.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Spot prices for gold notched its latest intraday high last Thursday as it breached $3,050/oz. This precious metal hit $3,057.57/oz before pulling back to close at $3,022.94/oz on Friday. Demand continues to remain robust and any decline in prices could be an opportunity for long-term buyers to scoop up this commodity and send prices higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (10:00 pm GMT 23rd March)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Composite PMI activity in Australia increased from 50.6 in the previous month to 51.3 in March, based on flash estimates. This latest report highlighted the strongest growth in private sector activity in seven months, buoyed by improvements in both manufacturing and services. The expansion in output was driven by higher new business growth, though export orders declined. With PMI activity expanding for the sixth successive month, the Aussie was buoyed as it climbed towards 0.6300 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After falling sharply in the second half of last week, the Kiwi stabilized around 0.5730 as markets reopened on Monday. This currency pair climbed as high as 0.5750 as Asian markets came online, potentially lifted by the Aussie due to stronger-than-anticipated PMI data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Business activity in Japan declined for the first time in five months as the Composite PMI tumbled from 52.0 in the previous month to 48.5 in March, based on flash estimates. Underlying data showed that this was partly due to a fresh fall in service sector activity, while manufacturing output declined at the quickest pace for a year. The reduction in overall activity coincided with a slight drop in composite new business, with firms noting that strong inflationary pressure had dampened sales and made some customers hesitant to commit to orders. Growth of new business slowed notably at services companies and fell solidly at goods producers. This marked the first drop in private sector activity since October and the sharpest contraction since February 2022. The yen sold off as weak PMI activity, combined with a potential slowdown in economic growth, may nudge the Bank of Japan towards another pause at its next meeting – USD/JPY was rising strongly towards 150 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The flash PMI report for the Euro Area is once again expected to show a dichotomy between the manufacturing and services sectors. Although manufacturing activity has remained in contraction since mid-2022, there have been signs of improvement over the last couple of months. Should overall PMI activity be boosted by the latest fiscal plans by Germany and the other major European nations, the euro could climb above 1.0900 once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned last week as USD/CHF found a floor around 0.8750 before closing at 0.8832 last Friday. This currency pair was ascending towards 0.8850 at the beginning of the Asia session and it should remain elevated as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (9:30 am GMT)

BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech (6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Service-producing businesses in the U.K. are once again predicted to pull up overall PMI activity as the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory. Demand for the pound could receive a boost should PMI activity pick up strongly in March. Later on, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will be speaking about the U.K. economy at the University of Leicester Chancellor’s Distinguished Lecture Series in England where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s monetary policy announcement, Governor Bailey could shed further insights on future policy action by this central bank.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

After rising strongly in December with a growth of 2.6% MoM, retail sales in Canada declined 0.6% in January as sales were down in three out of the nine sub-sectors, led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers. The Loonie weakened on Friday causing USD/CAD to hit a high of 1.4373 before closing at 1.4346. Combined with trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada, volatility for this currency pair is anticipated to remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices face overhead pressures as a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, combined with global trade uncertainty, could lead to an increase in Russian oil to markets as global demand tapers off. WTI oil recorded its second successive week of closing in the green last Friday but prices were sliding lower as markets re-opened on Monday. This benchmark dipped under $68 per barrel as Asian markets came online and is expected to drift lower as the day progresses.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 101.79
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this resistance zone.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0948
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0675
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1110
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 159.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 155.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8349
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8244
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8431
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3046

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2776
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3260
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 192.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 187.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 198.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8752

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8607
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8915
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 146.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 144.79
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4505

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4152
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4735
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6401
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6205

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6537
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5594

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5928

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 40,856.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 40,210.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,308.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,177.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 21,293.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as multi-swing low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,358.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,528.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 5,386.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,868.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,689.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 73,176.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 107,885.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,645.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,849.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,041.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 70.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 72.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2,954.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 2,790.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,091.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 24th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After rising strongly in December with a growth of 2.6% MoM, retail sales in Canada declined 0.6% in January as sales were down in three out of the nine sub-sectors, led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers. The Loonie weakened on Friday causing USD/CAD to hit a high of 1.4373 before closing at 1.4346. Combined with trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada, volatility for this currency pair is anticipated to remain elevated.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Composite PMI activity in Australia increased from 50.6 in the previous month to 51.3 in March, based on flash estimates. This latest report highlighted the strongest growth in private sector activity in seven months, buoyed by improvements in both manufacturing and services. The expansion in output was driven by higher new business growth, though export orders declined. With PMI activity expanding for the sixth successive month, the Aussie was buoyed as it climbed towards 0.6300 at the beginning of this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The flash report for Composite PMI is expected to show both the manufacturing and services sector expand in March, albeit at a slower pace. With the ongoing trade policy uncertainties lingering in the background and potentially escalating in the coming weeks, economic output in the U.S. could take a hit in the near-term. Demand for the greenback picked up last week, providing a floor for the DXY at around the 103.30 mark before climbing above 104 last Friday. Demand could continue to gain further traction as the new trading week gets underway.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 29 to 30 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Spot prices for gold notched its latest intraday high last Thursday as it breached $3,050/oz. This precious metal hit $3,057.57/oz before pulling back to close at $3,022.94/oz on Friday. Demand continues to remain robust and any decline in prices could be an opportunity for long-term buyers to scoop up this commodity and send prices higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (10:00 pm GMT 23rd March)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Composite PMI activity in Australia increased from 50.6 in the previous month to 51.3 in March, based on flash estimates. This latest report highlighted the strongest growth in private sector activity in seven months, buoyed by improvements in both manufacturing and services. The expansion in output was driven by higher new business growth, though export orders declined. With PMI activity expanding for the sixth successive month, the Aussie was buoyed as it climbed towards 0.6300 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After falling sharply in the second half of last week, the Kiwi stabilized around 0.5730 as markets reopened on Monday. This currency pair climbed as high as 0.5750 as Asian markets came online, potentially lifted by the Aussie due to stronger-than-anticipated PMI data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Business activity in Japan declined for the first time in five months as the Composite PMI tumbled from 52.0 in the previous month to 48.5 in March, based on flash estimates. Underlying data showed that this was partly due to a fresh fall in service sector activity, while manufacturing output declined at the quickest pace for a year. The reduction in overall activity coincided with a slight drop in composite new business, with firms noting that strong inflationary pressure had dampened sales and made some customers hesitant to commit to orders. Growth of new business slowed notably at services companies and fell solidly at goods producers. This marked the first drop in private sector activity since October and the sharpest contraction since February 2022. The yen sold off as weak PMI activity, combined with a potential slowdown in economic growth, may nudge the Bank of Japan towards another pause at its next meeting – USD/JPY was rising strongly towards 150 following this news release.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5 percent recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The flash PMI report for the Euro Area is once again expected to show a dichotomy between the manufacturing and services sectors. Although manufacturing activity has remained in contraction since mid-2022, there have been signs of improvement over the last couple of months. Should overall PMI activity be boosted by the latest fiscal plans by Germany and the other major European nations, the euro could climb above 1.0900 once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned last week as USD/CHF found a floor around 0.8750 before closing at 0.8832 last Friday. This currency pair was ascending towards 0.8850 at the beginning of the Asia session and it should remain elevated as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (9:30 am GMT)

BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech (6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Service-producing businesses in the U.K. are once again predicted to pull up overall PMI activity as the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory. Demand for the pound could receive a boost should PMI activity pick up strongly in March. Later on, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will be speaking about the U.K. economy at the University of Leicester Chancellor’s Distinguished Lecture Series in England where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s monetary policy announcement, Governor Bailey could shed further insights on future policy action by this central bank.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

After rising strongly in December with a growth of 2.6% MoM, retail sales in Canada declined 0.6% in January as sales were down in three out of the nine sub-sectors, led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers. The Loonie weakened on Friday causing USD/CAD to hit a high of 1.4373 before closing at 1.4346. Combined with trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada, volatility for this currency pair is anticipated to remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices face overhead pressures as a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, combined with global trade uncertainty, could lead to an increase in Russian oil to markets as global demand tapers off. WTI oil recorded its second successive week of closing in the green last Friday but prices were sliding lower as markets re-opened on Monday. This benchmark dipped under $68 per barrel as Asian markets came online and is expected to drift lower as the day progresses.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher on Tariff Update – Nasdaq Up 0.5%

All three major US indices closed the final trading day of the week higher on Friday after President Trump indicated that some tariffs may be lighter than previously expected. The Dow and S&P both edged up 0.08% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq recorded a 0.52% gain. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies, with the DXY adding 0.3% to move up to 104.09. Treasury yields had a mixed session, with the 2-year yield losing 1.6 basis points to drop to 3.948%, while the 10-year yield added 0.9 basis points to 4.246%. Oil prices rose again as supply concerns continued to weigh on markets, with Brent up 0.22% to $72.16 and WTI up 0.31% to $68.28. Gold saw some profit-taking in line with the stronger dollar, dropping 0.74% on the day to close at $3,023.46 an ounce.

Pivotal Week Ahead for the Dollar

It could be a pivotal week ahead for the dollar as the FX market digests fresh data, including key inflation figures, and navigates further tariff updates and their potential impact on global trade. The DXY has dropped over 6% in the past couple of months as markets have reassessed the potential global trade war triggered by President Trump’s tariff plans. However, it appears to have found support just above the 103.00 level and has spent the last few days recovering some losses, now sitting just above 104.00 as we enter the new trading week. While no major central bank rate decisions are scheduled, important data releases—including CPI figures from the UK and Australia, as well as the US Core PCE—are due. Additional tariff updates could also influence sentiment, leaving the DXY with the potential to either climb back into recent ranges or challenge last week’s lows once again.

PMI Data in Focus for Markets Today

A raft of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data is due from across the globe today, and investors will be monitoring updates closely to assess how firms are coping with increasing global trade concerns. The Asian session kicks off with Australian data, followed by Flash Services and Manufacturing updates from France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US over the next two trading sessions. Later in the New York session, we will also hear from our first central bank speakers of the week, with remarks from the Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

The post General Market Analysis – 24/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It looks like a steadier week ahead on the macroeconomic calendar after yet another busy week last week. There is some key inflation data due across various jurisdictions, which investors and central banks alike will be focusing on, but it is certainly a lot quieter than last week’s schedule.

Geopolitical updates will again come into consideration as we progress through the week, with tariffs from the US still very much front of mind for investors. Traders will also be paying close attention to conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East, which are still ongoing and have influenced markets again recently.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is PMI day across the market, with Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data due across several jurisdictions throughout the day, including Australia, France, Germany, the UK, the EU, and the US. Later in the day, we have our first central bank speakers for the week, with remarks from the Fed’s Bostic and the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey.

Tuesday looks slightly more subdued, with nothing of note due out in the Asian session. The European session features the German Ifo Business Climate data, which will keep euro traders on their toes, while US data releases include CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, all due shortly after the New York open.

Wednesday may be the busiest day of the week in terms of scheduled data, with key CPI numbers due from both Australia and the UK, likely causing volatility in their respective markets given each central bank’s focus on this data. The UK’s annual budget is also set to be released during the London session. Meanwhile, in the US, we have Durable Goods data and speeches from the Fed’s Kashkari and Musalem.

There is little on the calendar in the first two trading sessions of the day on Thursday, but the New York open sees the release of US Final GDP data and the weekly Unemployment Claims numbers. Pending Home Sales data is also due later in the day.

Inflation data is once again in focus on Friday, with key numbers due at either end of the day. Tokyo Core CPI data will have Japanese traders fixed to their screens early in the Asian session before attention shifts to UK markets near the London open, when Retail Sales data is released. However, the most significant data release of the week likely comes towards the end of the day, with the Core PCE Price Index numbers due shortly after the New York open. At the same time, Canadian GDP data will also be released, followed later in the session by the Revised University of Michigan figures. However, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to dominate market sentiment.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 24 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 24/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia session was marked by cautious trading and mild movements in major currency pairs, influenced by the aftermath of recent central bank decisions. The US Dollar Index (DXY) showed signs of recovery, bouncing off from 103.31 to trade near 103.92, gaining about 0.48% in the session. This bounce came after the Federal Reserve maintained its projection for two rate cuts in 2025, which initially caused some dollar weakness.

USD/JPY faced slight bearish pressure, hovering around 147.81, influenced by Japan’s ongoing economic concerns. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) showed strength, trading above 0.5720, supported by a weaker USD and positive sentiment. EUR/USD experienced a mild pullback, trading near 1.0830, after reaching a five-month high in the previous session

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European and U.S. forex sessions, this recovery in the DXY could provide short-term support for the USD against major currencies. EUR/USD is likely to test support near 1.0760, with potential downward pressure if the DXY strengthens further. GBP/USD is expected to trade cautiously near 1.300, with support at 1.2909 and resistance at 1.3010. Traders will also monitor CAD movements during the US session, as Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data are set for release at 12:30 PM GMT, potentially driving USD/CAD volatility

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

With no major economic events scheduled, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent Federal Reserve signals and broader market sentiment.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 103.20, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.

Resistance at 104.10, a key barrier that, if breached, could push DXY toward 105.00.

The DXY’s bearish outlook persists, trading near 103.50. Recent Fed projections for rate cuts in 2025 continue to weigh on the dollar

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The economic outlook remains uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) maintains the projection of two rate cuts in 2025 totaling 50 basis points, consistent with the previous quarter’s forecast.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2025 (2.1% vs. 2% in the December projection), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.4%) and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2.0%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be maintained at $35 billion.

• The next meeting is scheduled for 29-30 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

With no major economic events scheduled, Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent Federal Reserve signals and broader market sentiment. The precious metal remains supported by its recent bullish momentum, having reached a new all-time high above $3,052.5 on Thursday.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at $3,025, where buyers may step in to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at $3,056, a key barrier that, if breached, could push Gold toward $3,070.

Gold’s bullish outlook persists, trading near $3,035. Recent Fed projections for rate cuts in 2025 and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

With no major economic events scheduled, AUD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and its bearish trend. The pair is currently trading near 0.6290.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.6274, where buyers may step in.

Resistance at 0.6330, a barrier that, if breached, could push AUD/USD toward 0.6400.

The pair’s bearish outlook persists, with recent Fed projections and trade policy concerns weighing on sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major economic events scheduled, NZD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and its bearish trend. The pair is currently trading near 0.5765.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.5771, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.

Resistance at 0.5829, a key barrier that, if breached, could push NZD/USD toward 0.5890.

The pair’s bearish outlook persists, with recent technical analysis suggesting a potential test of the resistance area near 0.5765 before continuing its downward movement

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major economic events scheduled, USD/JPY is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and the pair’s recent bearish trend. The pair is currently trading near 148.90.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 148.10, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.

Resistance at 149.50, a key barrier that, if breached, could push USD/JPY toward 147.30.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favorable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5 percent recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major economic events scheduled, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and the pair’s recent bullish trend. The pair is currently trading near 1.0841.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support at 1.0766, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.
Resistance at 1.0950, a key barrier that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.0950.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major economic events scheduled, USD/CHF is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and the pair’s recent bearish trend. The pair is currently trading near 0.8851.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.8757, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.

Resistance at 0.8865, a key barrier that, if breached, could push USD/CHF toward 0.8872.

If the SNB delivers the expected rate cut, the CHF may initially weaken against major currencies. However, the franc’s reaction will largely depend on the SNB’s forward guidance and any comments on potential currency intervention. The recent strength of the euro against the franc, driven by improved eurozone growth prospects, may factor into the SNB’s decision-making process.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major economic events scheduled, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and the pair’s bullish trend. The pair is currently trading near 1.2975.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support at 1.2808, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.
Resistance at 1.3046, a key barrier that, if breached, could push GBP/USD toward 1.3100.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Today, the Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to experience volatility due to the release of Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m data at 12:30 pm GMT. If both figures exceed expectations, CAD may strengthen against major currencies. Conversely, disappointing data could lead to downward pressure on CAD. USD/CAD, currently trading near 1.4316, will be closely watched around key levels: support at 1.4235 and resistance at 1.4399.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major economic events scheduled, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by recent market sentiment and ongoing supply-demand dynamics. The commodity is currently trading near $68.50 per barrel.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at $65.72, where buyers may step in to prevent further decline.

Resistance at $70.37, a key barrier that, if breached, could push WTI toward $71.37.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.07%, Shanghai Composite down 1.09%, Hang Seng down 2.21% ASX up 0.17%
• Commodities : Gold at $3033.35 (0.60%), Silver at $33.5 (0.68%), Brent Oil at $72.35 (0.5%), WTI Oil at $68.31 (0.54%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.250, UK 10-year yield at 4.6495, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7770

News & Data:

• (GBP) Official Bank Rate 4.50%  to 4.50% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded mixed on Friday amid uncertainty about the U.S. economy, with Hong Kong stocks leading losses. The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.90%, weighed down by healthcare and consumer cyclical stocks, while China’s CSI 300 fell 1.11%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.36%, and the Topix climbed 0.7%, reaching its highest level since last July. South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.14%, but the Kosdaq slipped 0.38%. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.37%.

Japan’s annual inflation slowed to 3.7% in February from 4% in January, marking a slight easing from a two-year high.

U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve-fueled rally lost momentum. Overnight, the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 5,662.89, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.33% to 17,691.63, pressured by losses in Apple and Alphabet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 11.31 points (0.03%), closing at 41,953.32.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Retail Sales m/m

The post Friday 21st March 2025: Asian Markets Mixed as Hong Kong Leads Losses; U.S. Stocks Struggle first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Drift Lower After Fed – S&P Down 0.2%

US stock markets experienced a choppy trading day yesterday as investors digested the latest rate update from the Fed, with all three major indices ultimately drifting lower. The Dow closed the day just 0.03% lower, while the S&P and Nasdaq fell slightly more, closing down 0.22% and 0.33%, respectively. US Treasury yields also drifted, with the 2-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 3.963% and the benchmark 10-year losing 0.6 basis points to close at 4.237%.

FX markets were livelier as more central bank decisions hit the markets, with the dollar pushing higher on the day—the DXY up 0.35% to 103.79. Oil prices also surged as military action intensified in both Ukraine and the Middle East, with Brent up 2.07% to $72.26 a barrel and WTI up 1.73% to $68.07. Meanwhile, gold experienced a quiet day but remained near recent record levels, dropping just 0.05% to close at $3,044.40.

Central Banks Largely in Line with Expectations

Investors had been looking to this week for some clarity on the markets, with key central bank updates due. However, many were left disappointed, as most announcements went largely in line with expectations. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all kept rates on hold as expected, acknowledged inflation concerns, and recognised the threat of tariffs to global trade and the uncertainty they create.

The SNB cut rates and acknowledged its own low inflation issues, but overall, traders received little in the way of certainty regarding the banks’ future direction. As a result, economic data will take centre stage over the next few months, as markets assess whether tariffs and other geopolitical factors impact figures as strongly as anticipated. In the short term, it appears to be ‘more of the same’, with volatility likely to remain high.

Quieter Calendar Day to End a Busy Trading Week

The macroeconomic calendar is more subdued today, closing out what has been a busy trading week from both a fundamental and geopolitical perspective. The Asian session will initially focus on Japanese markets, which return after a holiday yesterday, with the National Core CPI data (expected at 2.9%) due early in the day.

There is little on the European session calendar to move markets, although Euro traders will keep an eye on the EU Current Account number mid-morning. The New York open will see an early focus on Canadian Retail Sales numbers, with expectations of a 0.1% decrease in the headline data and a 0.4% decrease in the Core data. Beyond that, traders anticipate smoother trading conditions heading into the weekend—barring any major headlines hitting the newswires!

The post General Market Analysis – 21/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0951
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0766
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1074
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 162.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8401
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8356
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8444
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3046

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2808
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 192.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 19079
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8798

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8756
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8865
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 148.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 147.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 150.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

PPrice could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4401

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4515
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6330
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6261

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6391
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5730

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5830

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 42,198.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.. 

1st support: 41,416.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,014.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,723.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 22,267.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as multi-swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,175.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,771.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 5,605.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,861.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 84,306.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 78.021.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 89,641.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,947.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1,750.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,134.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 69.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 67.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 70.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 3049.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3023.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3061.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 21st March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.