Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.71%, Shanghai Composite down 0.32%, Hang Seng down 0.81% ASX down 0.91%
• Commodities : Gold at $2902.35 (0.10%), Silver at $32.5 (0.18%), Brent Oil at $69.25 (-0.05%), WTI Oil at $65.88 (-0.14%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.183, UK 10-year yield at 4.645, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8250

News & Data:

• (USD) JOLTS Job Openings 7.74M  to 7.65M expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday as Wall Street remained volatile due to uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and recession fears. The White House confirmed that 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum would apply to Canada and other nations but scrapped plans to raise Canadian tariffs to 50%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.31%, and the Topix gained 1.20%, reversing previous losses. Nissan shares climbed 0.61% after CEO Makoto Uchida announced his resignation, with Ivan Espinosa set to succeed him. Nissan’s merger talks with Honda ended, though Honda remains open to future discussions. Honda shares fell 0.31%.

Japan’s wholesale inflation hit 4% in February, still above the 2% target, increasing expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike. Nomura predicts rate hikes in July 2025 and January 2026. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.31%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.23%. China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.22%, with government bond yields nearing key levels. Tech company Robosense saw a surge of 18.28% in the Hong Kong market, while jewelry chain Chow Tai Fook advanced 7.15%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.32%, while India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex fell 0.41% and 0.18%, respectively. NSE India CEO Ashish Chauhan noted that the country raised $19.2 billion in listings last year, the highest globally.

U.S. stocks slid overnight due to tariff uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.76%, the Dow dropped 478.23 points, and the Nasdaq declined 0.18%. The S&P 500 briefly turned positive before Trump announced on Truth Social that Canadian steel and aluminum duties would double to 50% from 25%, effective Wednesday, in response to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s electricity surcharge on U.S. exports. This policy shift pushed Wall Street closer to correction territory, defined as a 10% decline from a recent high. The ongoing uncertainty weighed on market sentiment, with investors assessing potential risks.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD CPI y/y
• 01:45 PM GMT – CAD Overnight Rate
• 02:30 PM GMT – CAD BOC Press Conference

The post Wednesday 12th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Wall Street Slides on Tariff Uncertainty first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The euro remained elevated as optimism on a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine grew, with the latter accepting a U.S.-proposed month-long ceasefire proposal. This recent geopolitical development signals reduced uncertainty in Europe, keeping this currency pair above 1.0900 to mark a five-month high. The markets have been heavily influenced by U.S. policy uncertainty i.e. tariffs and geopolitical developments. U.S. President Donald Trump’s overnight comments provide a temporary counterweight to recession fears, but the lack of clarity on tariffs suggests heightened market fragility.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be delivering her speech at the ECB’s Watchers conference in Frankfurt where audience questions are expected. Following the fifth successive rate cut by the ECB last week and the ongoing global trade uncertainties continuing to build, markets will be looking to see if President Lagarde can shed further insights into the outlook for future monetary policy action and trade policies by this central bank.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to move ahead with its seventh successive rate cut by reducing the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 2.75%. With the backdrop of escalating trade disputes between Canada and the U.S. weighing on growth, this central bank will be looking to jump-start its economy with another round of monetary easing. Combined with the end of quantitative tightening and a restart of asset purchases in early March, the Loonie could come under overhead pressures later today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After accelerating from September of last year through January 2025, headline CPI is finally expected to ‘cool’ in February. Consumer inflation rose strongly from an annual rate of 2.4% to 3.0% but is now anticipated to ease slightly to 2.9% while core CPI should also moderate lower from 3.3% to 3.2%. Should consumer inflation show inflationary pressures dissipating strongly, it could raise the prospects of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming FOMC meeting from 18th to 19th March.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After accelerating from September of last year through January 2025, headline CPI is finally expected to ‘cool’ in February. Consumer inflation rose strongly from an annual rate of 2.4% to 3.0% but is now anticipated to ease slightly to 2.9% while core CPI should also moderate lower from 3.3% to 3.2%. Should consumer inflation show inflationary pressures dissipating strongly, it could raise the prospects of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming FOMC meeting from 18th to 19th March.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie drifted lower at the beginning of this week before stabilizing around 0.6280 on Tuesday. This currency pair climbed above the 0.6300 level overnight before running out of steam – it dipped under this level during Wednesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi faded on Monday before finding a near-term floor around 0.5700 on Tuesday. It climbed toward 0.5730 overnight before pulling back at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen has appreciated nearly 3% against the greenback since the beginning of March causing USD/JPY to dive toward 146.50 this week. However, demand for the yen waned on Tuesday providing a temporary floor for USD/JPY at around the 147 mark. This currency pair continued its upward ascend towards 148 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde’s Speech (8:45 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be delivering her speech at the ECB’s Watchers conference in Frankfurt where audience questions are expected. Following the fifth successive rate cut by the ECB last week and the ongoing global trade uncertainties continuing to build, markets will be looking to see if President Lagarde can shed further insights into the outlook for future monetary policy action and trade policies by this central bank.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

After appreciating strongly last week, demand for the franc waned as USD/CHF stabilized around 0.8800 on Monday before climbing higher. This currency pair rose 0.5% over the last couple of days and the upward momentum could gain further traction as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After hitting a high of 1.2965 on Tuesday, Cable looked to be running out of steam at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session. This currency pair drifted toward the 1.2900 level but it should continue to remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Interest Rate Decision (1:45 pm GMT)

BoC Press Conference (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to move ahead with its seventh successive rate cut by reducing the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 2.75%. With the backdrop of escalating trade disputes between Canada and the U.S. weighing on growth, this central bank will be looking to jump-start its economy with another round of monetary easing. Combined with the end of quantitative tightening and a restart of asset purchases in early March, the Loonie could come under overhead pressures later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected.
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices jumped overnight as news of Canadian oil exports to the U.S. could be restricted filtered through the news headlines. Canada may consider non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. should trade disputes escalate further, said Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson on Tuesday. WTI oil rose above $66.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Wednesday but gains could be limited as the latest report by the API showed inventory levels spiking once again. After falling over the last couple of weeks, the API stockpiles swelled by 4.2M barrels of crude, double the forecast of a 2.1M build. Should the EIA inventories also point to a continued rise in storage capacity, crude prices could face headwinds once more.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0765
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.0612
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0937
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 161.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 159.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 163.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8462
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 0.8387
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8509
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2797
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.2684
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.2945
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1189.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support,  indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 188.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 193.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

 Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8776
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8699
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8857
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 146.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 144.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4354

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.4283
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4525
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6353

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6246

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6401
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5685

Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5633

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5742

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 41,746.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 41,170.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a -swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,451.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,862.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 22,163.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,311.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,650.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,494.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,770.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 78,488.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 73,304.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 86,859.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,022.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,524.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,304.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 67.79

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the descending channel and the red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 70.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2928.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 2876.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing low support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2954.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Wednesday 12th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Job openings in the U.S. increased by 232,000 to 7.7M in January, up from a revised 7.5M in December and surpassing the market expectations of 7.6M. Notable increases occurred in sectors such as retail trade; finance and insurance; and health care and social assistance. In contrast, job openings fell in professional and business services. The latest uptick in vacancies as reported by the JOLTS report pointed to a slight improvement in hiring by U.S. corporations but uncertainty continues to weigh on overall market sentiment despite an attempt by Canada and the U.S. to de-escalate tariff tensions.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The dollar index (DXY) hovered around 103.40 while spot prices for gold continued to remain restricted under $2,930/oz at the beginning of this session. Should any real attempt to de-escalate the ongoing trade tensions materialize, markets could see a sharp reversal of the current trends in financial securities.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After accelerating from September of last year through January 2025, headline CPI is finally expected to ‘cool’ in February. Consumer inflation rose strongly from an annual rate of 2.4% to 3.0% but is now anticipated to ease slightly to 2.9% while core CPI should also moderate lower from 3.3% to 3.2%. Should consumer inflation show inflationary pressures dissipating strongly, it could raise the prospects of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming FOMC meeting from 18th to 19th March.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After accelerating from September of last year through January 2025, headline CPI is finally expected to ‘cool’ in February. Consumer inflation rose strongly from an annual rate of 2.4% to 3.0% but is now anticipated to ease slightly to 2.9% while core CPI should also moderate lower from 3.3% to 3.2%. Should consumer inflation show inflationary pressures dissipating strongly, it could raise the prospects of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming FOMC meeting from 18th to 19th March.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie drifted lower at the beginning of this week before stabilizing around 0.6280 on Tuesday. This currency pair climbed above the 0.6300 level overnight before running out of steam – it dipped under this level during Wednesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi faded on Monday before finding a near-term floor around 0.5700 on Tuesday. It climbed toward 0.5730 overnight before pulling back at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen has appreciated nearly 3% against the greenback since the beginning of March causing USD/JPY to dive toward 146.50 this week. However, demand for the yen waned on Tuesday providing a temporary floor for USD/JPY at around the 147 mark. This currency pair continued its upward ascend towards 148 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde’s Speech (8:45 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be delivering her speech at the ECB’s Watchers conference in Frankfurt where audience questions are expected. Following the fifth successive rate cut by the ECB last week and the ongoing global trade uncertainties continuing to build, markets will be looking to see if President Lagarde can shed further insights into the outlook for future monetary policy action and trade policies by this central bank.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

After appreciating strongly last week, demand for the franc waned as USD/CHF stabilized around 0.8800 on Monday before climbing higher. This currency pair rose 0.5% over the last couple of days and the upward momentum could gain further traction as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After hitting a high of 1.2965 on Tuesday, Cable looked to be running out of steam at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session. This currency pair drifted toward the 1.2900 level but it should continue to remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Interest Rate Decision (1:45 pm GMT)

BoC Press Conference (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to move ahead with its seventh successive rate cut by reducing the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 2.75%. With the backdrop of escalating trade disputes between Canada and the U.S. weighing on growth, this central bank will be looking to jump-start its economy with another round of monetary easing. Combined with the end of quantitative tightening and a restart of asset purchases in early March, the Loonie could come under overhead pressures later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected.
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices jumped overnight as news of Canadian oil exports to the U.S. could be restricted filtered through the news headlines. Canada may consider non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. should trade disputes escalate further, said Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson on Tuesday. WTI oil rose above $66.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Wednesday but gains could be limited as the latest report by the API showed inventory levels spiking once again. After falling over the last couple of weeks, the API stockpiles swelled by 4.2M barrels of crude, double the forecast of a 2.1M build. Should the EIA inventories also point to a continued rise in storage capacity, crude prices could face headwinds once more.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Geopolitics Continue to Hit Markets – Dow Down 1.1%

Geopolitical updates continued to dominate market movements yesterday, as further tariff updates and a ceasefire in Ukraine led to increased volatility. US stock markets once again closed in the red, though the decline was less severe than the previous day’s rout. The Dow dropped 1.14%, the S&P fell 0.76%, and the Nasdaq declined just 0.18% as some positive news filtered through the uncertainty. Treasury yields rebounded from recent lows, with the 2-year yield rising by 6 basis points to 3.943% and the 10-year yield increasing by 6.7 basis points to 4.280%. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened further, with the DXY down 0.4% to 103.43. Oil prices gained some ground but remained under pressure, with Brent rising 0.89% to $69.90 and WTI increasing 0.33% to $66.25. Gold pushed higher on the back of the weaker greenback, up 1.25% to $2,916.58 per ounce.

Bank of Canada Rate Call in Focus

The Canadian dollar has been in sharp focus for currency traders over the past few months and, more recently, in the past few hours, as tariff and counter-tariff updates have triggered sharp movements in one of the least liquid major pairs. However, interest rate differentials will briefly take centre stage today as the Bank of Canada announces its latest rate decision. The Bank is widely expected (80% priced in) to reduce interest rates again by 25 basis points, lowering the base rate from 3.00% to 2.75%. However, traders anticipate greater currency movement following updates on the Bank’s outlook in its statement and subsequent press conference later in the day. A key focus will be the potential impact of US tariffs and whether these could push the Bank towards a more dovish stance. Should this occur, the beleaguered Loonie may face further downside pressure.

Event Calendar Kicks into Action Today

From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, today is expected to be the busiest day of the week for traders. However, as observed over the past six sessions, geopolitical updates continue to dominate market sentiment. Nevertheless, two key events later today could have a significant impact on their respective markets. There are no major releases scheduled during the Asian session, though ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to speak during the European trading day. The main focus, however, will be on the US open and the crucial CPI data. Expectations are for a 0.3% month-on-month increase, and any substantial deviation from this figure could trigger significant market movements. The US inflation data will be swiftly followed by the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision, policy statement, and press conference, all of which are expected to add further volatility to the Loonie.

The post General Market Analysis – 12/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.71%, Shanghai Composite down 0.32%, Hang Seng down 0.81% ASX down 0.91%
• Commodities : Gold at $2902.35 (0.10%), Silver at $32.5 (0.18%), Brent Oil at $69.25 (-0.05%), WTI Oil at $65.88 (-0.14%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.183, UK 10-year yield at 4.645, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8250

News & Data:

• (JPY) Final GDP q/q 0.6%  to 0.7% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Tuesday, following losses in the U.S. driven by concerns over tariff policies and a potential recession. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.18%, recovering from deeper losses, while the Topix index declined 1.64%. Major losers included Konica Minolta (-7.52%) and Sumitomo Electric Industries (-5.79%). Japan’s revised Q4 GDP grew 2.2% annually, below economists’ expectations and the previous 2.8% estimate.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.19%, with the Kosdaq down 0.88%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.75%, while China’s CSI 300 slid 0.66%. Taiwan’s Taiex index declined 1.61%, recovering from an earlier 3% drop. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.91% lower at 7,890.10, reversing gains from the previous session. India’s Nifty 50 remained flat, while the BSE Sensex slipped 0.27% in early trade.

In the U.S., stocks tumbled overnight on fears that Trump’s tariff policy could trigger a recession. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, touching its lowest point since September. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4%, marking its worst session since September 2022, while the Dow Jones declined 2.08% to 41,911.71. The S&P 500 is now 8.7% below its February 19 all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite is down nearly 14%. A 10% drop is considered a correction on Wall Street.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD JOLTS Job Openings

The post Tuesday 11th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Decline Amid U.S. Recession Fears first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Business confidence in Australia declined in February as it tumbled from a reading of 5 in the previous month down to -1 as sentiment fell across industries, particularly in mining; recreation; and transport. National Australia Bank (NAB) chief economist Alan Oster noted confidence fell below average again, indicating that businesses remain cautious about the outlook, especially in the current environment of retaliatory actions of trade tariffs between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Despite the API stockpiles declining over the last couple of weeks, the higher-than-expected drawdowns failed to support prices as tariff uncertainty and plans by OPEC+ to increase production weighed heavily on this commodity. Even if inventories were to fall sharply once more, it is unlikely to keep prices supported in the near term. WTI oil fell under the $66 mark overnight and continued tumbling as Asian markets came online.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After dwindling significantly lower since March 2022, job openings increased slightly in October and November. However, vacancies fell again in December, declining from 8.2M to 7.6M with notable decreases in sectors such as professional and business services; health care and social assistance; and finance and insurance. January’s estimates point to a slight uptick with 7.7M job openings expected to be available but following last week’s softer-than-anticipated employment reports by the ADP and BLS, the labour market now appears to be cooling.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After dwindling significantly lower since March 2022, job openings increased slightly in October and November. However, vacancies fell again in December, declining from 8.2M to 7.6M with notable decreases in sectors such as professional and business services; health care and social assistance; and finance and insurance. January’s estimates point to a slight uptick with 7.7M job openings expected to be available but following last week’s softer-than-anticipated employment reports by the ADP and BLS, the labour market now appears to be cooling.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

NAB Business Confidence (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Business confidence in Australia declined in February as it tumbled from a reading of 5 in the previous month down to -1 as sentiment fell across industries, particularly in mining; recreation; and transport. National Australia Bank (NAB) chief economist Alan Oster noted confidence fell below average again, indicating that businesses remain cautious about the outlook, especially in the current environment of retaliatory actions of trade tariffs between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi drifted lower overnight and it continued its downward slide as Asian markets came online on Tuesday. This currency pair edged lower toward 0.5670 and could face temporary headwinds as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen continued to see strong inflows on Monday as it appreciated strongly versus the greenback, causing USD/JPY to fall sharply toward 146.60. Overhead pressures remain firmly intact and this currency pair should continue to drift lower on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

After declining 2.4% in December to mark the steepest decrease since July, industrial production in Germany rebounded in January as it rose 2.0% MoM. The latest output exceeded the market forecast of a 1.5% increase with strong gains seen in sectors such as automotive; food; and machine maintenance and assembly. The Euro continued to remain buoyed on Monday, fuelled by prospects of higher fiscal spending by the new German government, including contributions from other nations in the European Union.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Growing optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has sparked strong demand for European currencies, including the Swiss franc. Demand has increased significantly since mid-February, causing USD/CHF to dive under 0.8760 on Monday. This currency pair resumed its downward slide as Asian markets came online on Tuesday, falling steeply toward 0.8750.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound continued to see strong inflows on Monday, appreciating strongly against the dollar. Cable rose to an overnight high of 1.2946 and this currency pair will likely remain elevated on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The ongoing trade tariffs between the U.S. and Canada have raised uncertainty and volatility for the Loonie, causing USD/CAD to swing wildly between 1.4800 and 1.4150 in recent weeks. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 1.4472 before retreating away from this level at the beginning of the Asia session, edging down toward 1.4400.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected.
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Despite the API stockpiles declining over the last couple of weeks, the higher-than-expected drawdowns failed to support prices as tariff uncertainty and plans by OPEC+ to increase production weighed heavily on this commodity. Even if inventories were to fall sharply once more, it is unlikely to keep prices supported in the near term. WTI oil fell under the $66 mark overnight and continued tumbling as Asian markets came online – this benchmark was floating around $65.50 per barrel.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0765
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.0612
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0937
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 158.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 157.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8431
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 0.8367
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8473
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2797
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.2684
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.2945
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1189.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 187.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 192.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

 Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8706
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8607
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8857
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 146.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 144.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and it could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4449

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4283
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4541
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6353

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6246

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6401
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and it could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5685

Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5633

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5742

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 42,456.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 41,674.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,020.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,862.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 22,163.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,311.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,650.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,580.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,703.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 82,542.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 73,304.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 87,945.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. The presence of a descending trendline and the red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of this resistance zone.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,022.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,524.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,304.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 67.79

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the descending channel and the red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 70.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2928.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 2838.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing low support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2954.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Tuesday 11th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After remaining steady at 3.0% from November 2024 through January 2025, consumer inflation expectations rose for the first time as it edged up to 3.1%. This latest print marked the highest level since May with expected price growth increasing for categories such as gas; food; medical care; and rent. Despite this uptick in expectations, financial news headlines were dominated by growing concerns of a potential U.S. government shutdown if Congress fails to pass a temporary funding bill before the fiscal deadline on March 14, as well as recession concerns resulting from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Overhead pressures for the greenback remain firmly in place as the dollar index (DXY) dropped to an overnight low of 103.55 while the U.S. stock markets suffered steep declines.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Business confidence in Australia declined in February as it tumbled from a reading of 5 in the previous month down to -1 as sentiment fell across industries, particularly in mining; recreation; and transport. National Australia Bank (NAB) chief economist Alan Oster noted confidence fell below average again, indicating that businesses remain cautious about the outlook, especially in the current environment of retaliatory actions of trade tariffs between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 at the beginning of this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After dwindling significantly lower since March 2022, job openings increased slightly in October and November. However, vacancies fell again in December, declining from 8.2M to 7.6M with notable decreases in sectors such as professional and business services; health care and social assistance; and finance and insurance. January’s estimates point to a slight uptick with 7.7M job openings expected to be available but following last week’s softer-than-anticipated employment reports by the ADP and BLS, the labour market now appears to be cooling.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After dwindling significantly lower since March 2022, job openings increased slightly in October and November. However, vacancies fell again in December, declining from 8.2M to 7.6M with notable decreases in sectors such as professional and business services; health care and social assistance; and finance and insurance. January’s estimates point to a slight uptick with 7.7M job openings expected to be available but following last week’s softer-than-anticipated employment reports by the ADP and BLS, the labour market now appears to be cooling.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

NAB Business Confidence (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Business confidence in Australia declined in February as it tumbled from a reading of 5 in the previous month down to -1 as sentiment fell across industries, particularly in mining; recreation; and transport. National Australia Bank (NAB) chief economist Alan Oster noted confidence fell below average again, indicating that businesses remain cautious about the outlook, especially in the current environment of retaliatory actions of trade tariffs between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. The Aussie was hovering around 0.6270 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi drifted lower overnight and it continued its downward slide as Asian markets came online on Tuesday. This currency pair edged lower toward 0.5670 and could face temporary headwinds as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen continued to see strong inflows on Monday as it appreciated strongly versus the greenback, causing USD/JPY to fall sharply toward 146.60. Overhead pressures remain firmly intact and this currency pair should continue to drift lower on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

After declining 2.4% in December to mark the steepest decrease since July, industrial production in Germany rebounded in January as it rose 2.0% MoM. The latest output exceeded the market forecast of a 1.5% increase with strong gains seen in sectors such as automotive; food; and machine maintenance and assembly. The Euro continued to remain buoyed on Monday, fuelled by prospects of higher fiscal spending by the new German government, including contributions from other nations in the European Union.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Growing optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has sparked strong demand for European currencies, including the Swiss franc. Demand has increased significantly since mid-February, causing USD/CHF to dive under 0.8760 on Monday. This currency pair resumed its downward slide as Asian markets came online on Tuesday, falling steeply toward 0.8750.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound continued to see strong inflows on Monday, appreciating strongly against the dollar. Cable rose to an overnight high of 1.2946 and this currency pair will likely remain elevated on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The ongoing trade tariffs between the U.S. and Canada have raised uncertainty and volatility for the Loonie, causing USD/CAD to swing wildly between 1.4800 and 1.4150 in recent weeks. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 1.4472 before retreating away from this level at the beginning of the Asia session, edging down toward 1.4400.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected.
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Despite the API stockpiles declining over the last couple of weeks, the higher-than-expected drawdowns failed to support prices as tariff uncertainty and plans by OPEC+ to increase production weighed heavily on this commodity. Even if inventories were to fall sharply once more, it is unlikely to keep prices supported in the near term. WTI oil fell under the $66 mark overnight and continued tumbling as Asian markets came online – this benchmark was floating around $65.50 per barrel.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Stocks Smashed as Recession Fears Mount – Nasdaq Down 4%

US stocks tumbled in trading yesterday as recession fears grew for the world’s largest economy, driven by heightened geopolitical risks. The Dow fell by 2.08%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.70%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged by a hefty 4%. Bonds rallied, with yields taking a significant hit on the day—the 2-year yield falling 11.3 basis points to 3.883%, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined by 8.8 basis points to 4.213%. The dollar edged slightly higher but saw some weakness, with the DXY rising just 0.06% to 103.90. A similar trend was seen in oil prices, which surrendered most of their recent gains amid growing concerns over economic growth—Brent crude fell 1.62% to $69.22, while WTI dropped 1.51% to $66.03. Gold prices also pulled back, declining 0.75% to close near support levels at $2,887.56.

Investors Fear the “R” Word Could Spread More Panic

Just a week ago, even mentioning the “R” word may have been met with scepticism among investors in the US, but now market commentators are openly discussing ‘recession fears’ as stock indices continue to plunge. The ‘buy the dip’ mentality that proved so effective for investors last year may be severely tested in the coming months, particularly as uncertainty over government policy persists. Inflationary concerns that initially accompanied the new government have taken a backseat, with the primary focus now on global economic growth and its impact on financial markets. There are growing fears that the ongoing correction in US markets could be deep and prolonged.

Volatile Markets Ahead Despite a Quiet Calendar

Traders are bracing for another turbulent session today as Wall Street’s rough start to the week looks set to extend into the Asian trading session. While today’s economic calendar is relatively light until the US session, market sentiment remains fragile. Typically, this would suggest a quieter, more range-bound trading day, but increasing concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on global growth could spark further volatility. With little scheduled to interrupt the current momentum, both Asian and European markets could experience heightened fluctuations.

The US will release the JOLTS Job Openings data later today, which usually coincides with other major employment figures. While this may prompt some reflection among traders, geopolitical concerns are expected to dominate market sentiment—at least until tomorrow’s key CPI release.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 11/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.