IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

During the Asia session on March 14, 2025, forex markets saw cautious trading amid global trade tensions. The U.S. Dollar (USD) held firm, supported by President Trump’s 200% tariff threat on European alcohol imports, fueling market instability. The Japanese Yen (JPY) stabilized after initial gains as risk sentiment fluctuated. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened, with AUD/USD forming a bearish engulfing candle, signaling near-term downside. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders monitoring global trade policy developments and potential shifts in Federal Reserve expectations for further direction

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The cautious Asia session sets a neutral to bearish tone for the European and U.S. sessions, with the U.S. dollar (USD) likely to remain firm amid global trade tensions. EUR/USD may face downside pressure, while GBP/USD could consolidate, awaiting UK economic data. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD remain vulnerable, reflecting weaker sentiment.

 In the U.S. session, the dollar may stay supported, with safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF if risk aversion persists. Gold prices may rise on safe-haven demand, while oil remains range-bound, influencing CAD

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure near 103.50 ahead of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports at 2:00 PM GMT. A further decline in Consumer Sentiment, which fell to 67.8 in February, could weaken the DXY, reflecting growing economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, rising inflation expectations, which increased to 3.3% in January, could support the DXY by reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains near record highs, with spot gold trading around $2,988 per ounce, as investors await the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data at 2:00 PM GMT. A decline in consumer sentiment could boost gold’s safe-haven appeal, while rising inflation expectations may strengthen demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Market uncertainty, coupled with geopolitical risks and softer U.S. economic data, has fueled gold’s bullish momentum. Analysts suggest gold could test $3,000 in the coming months if inflation fears persist. Investors will closely watch these reports for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, as any shift in rate expectations could impact gold’s trajectory

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

With no major news events, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to follow broader market sentiment, risk appetite, and U.S. dollar movements. If risk appetite remains strong, AUD/USD could see modest gains, but weakness in global equities or commodities may limit upside. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will play a key role, with a weaker dollar supporting AUD while a DXY rebound could cap gains. As a commodity-linked currency, AUD may find support if gold and iron ore prices rise, but any decline in metals could weigh on the pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major news events, NZD/USD is expected to trade in line with broader market sentiment, risk appetite, and U.S. dollar movements. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could support NZD/USD, while a DXY rebound may limit upside. As a risk-sensitive currency, NZD will be influenced by global equity markets and commodity prices, with strength in gold and dairy prices potentially providing support. Technically, NZD/USD is testing resistance near 0.5772, with 0.5677 acting as key support.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major news events, USD/JPY is expected to trade based on broader market sentiment, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk appetite. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could push USD/JPY lower, while rising U.S. bond yields may provide support. As a safe-haven currency, the Japanese yen (JPY) could strengthen if risk sentiment weakens, leading to downside pressure on the pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade based on broader market sentiment, U.S. dollar movements, and risk appetite. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could support EUR/USD, while any DXY rebound may cap gains. The pair will also react to U.S. Treasury yields, with lower yields favoring EUR strength, while higher yields could pressure the pair lower.

Technically, EUR/USD is testing resistance near 1.0937, with support at 1.0636.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events, Technically, USD/CHF is testing resistance near 0.8864, with support at 0.8767

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m  ( 7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The UK GDP m/m report for January 2025 showed 0.1% growth, slowing from December’s 0.4% expansion. GBP/USD traded around 1.2980, with a muted market reaction. While in-line with expectations, the slowdown raises concerns about economic momentum. Resistance is at 1.3038, with support at 1.2774, keeping the pair range-bound. A stable risk environment may limit volatility, but weaker economic signals could pressure the pound. U.S. dollar movements and upcoming UK data will guide the next move, with traders watching for potential shifts in Bank of England rate expectations to determine market direction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major news events, Technically, USD/CAD is trading near resistance at 1.4525, with support at 1.4283 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news event, Technical levels show resistance near $68.48 and support around $65.640.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0765
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.0636
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0937
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 160.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 159.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 163.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8372
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8336
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8427
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2811
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.2690
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.2980
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 193.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 191.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

 Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8776
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8699
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8864
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 146.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 144.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 150.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4354

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.4283
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4525
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6355

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6246

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6402
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5742

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5677

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5772

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 41,666.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 40,592.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,201.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,862.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 22,163.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,311.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,650.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 5,505.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,770.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 78,488.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 73,794.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 86,859.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,022.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 1,749.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,304.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 68.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the descending channel and the red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 70.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2989.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 2955.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3031.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 14th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – remained unchanged in February, following a 0.6% increase in January and a 0.5% rise in December. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI increased by 3.2%, indicating some persistent inflationary pressures in the supply chain.

Meanwhile, unemployment claims decreased by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ending March 8. The four-week moving average inched up to 226,000, while continuing claims dropped by 27,000 to 1.87 million, signaling resilience in the labor market.

The Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower as markets reacted to the softer inflation data and stable jobless claims, increasing expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Asia session may see a weaker U.S. dollar following unchanged PPI data, which eases inflation concerns and raises expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, lower unemployment claims signal a resilient labor market, but with inflation stabilizing, the Fed may still lean toward easing later this year. The Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, supporting Asian currencies like JPY, CNY, and AUD. A weaker dollar could drive gold prices higher, while USD/JPY may decline, and AUD/USD and NZD/USD could rise on improved risk sentiment. Oil may see volatility as traders assess Fed policy. Markets will closely watch upcoming U.S. data to confirm the Fed’s rate path

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure near 103.50 ahead of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports at 2:00 PM GMT. A further decline in Consumer Sentiment, which fell to 67.8 in February, could weaken the DXY, reflecting growing economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, rising inflation expectations, which increased to 3.3% in January, could support the DXY by reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains near record highs, with spot gold trading around $2,988 per ounce, as investors await the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data at 2:00 PM GMT. A decline in consumer sentiment could boost gold’s safe-haven appeal, while rising inflation expectations may strengthen demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Market uncertainty, coupled with geopolitical risks and softer U.S. economic data, has fueled gold’s bullish momentum. Analysts suggest gold could test $3,000 in the coming months if inflation fears persist. Investors will closely watch these reports for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, as any shift in rate expectations could impact gold’s trajectory

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

With no major news events, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to follow broader market sentiment, risk appetite, and U.S. dollar movements. If risk appetite remains strong, AUD/USD could see modest gains, but weakness in global equities or commodities may limit upside. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will play a key role, with a weaker dollar supporting AUD while a DXY rebound could cap gains. As a commodity-linked currency, AUD may find support if gold and iron ore prices rise, but any decline in metals could weigh on the pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major news events, NZD/USD is expected to trade in line with broader market sentiment, risk appetite, and U.S. dollar movements. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could support NZD/USD, while a DXY rebound may limit upside. As a risk-sensitive currency, NZD will be influenced by global equity markets and commodity prices, with strength in gold and dairy prices potentially providing support. Technically, NZD/USD is testing resistance near 0.5772, with 0.5677 acting as key support.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major news events, USD/JPY is expected to trade based on broader market sentiment, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk appetite. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could push USD/JPY lower, while rising U.S. bond yields may provide support. As a safe-haven currency, the Japanese yen (JPY) could strengthen if risk sentiment weakens, leading to downside pressure on the pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade based on broader market sentiment, U.S. dollar movements, and risk appetite. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could support EUR/USD, while any DXY rebound may cap gains. The pair will also react to U.S. Treasury yields, with lower yields favoring EUR strength, while higher yields could pressure the pair lower.

Technically, EUR/USD is testing resistance near 1.0937, with support at 1.0636.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events, Technically, USD/CHF is testing resistance near 0.8864, with support at 0.8767

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m  ( 7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The UK GDP m/m report for January 2025 showed 0.1% growth, slowing from December’s 0.4% expansion. GBP/USD traded around 1.2980, with a muted market reaction. While in-line with expectations, the slowdown raises concerns about economic momentum. Resistance is at 1.3038, with support at 1.2774, keeping the pair range-bound. A stable risk environment may limit volatility, but weaker economic signals could pressure the pound. U.S. dollar movements and upcoming UK data will guide the next move, with traders watching for potential shifts in Bank of England rate expectations to determine market direction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major news events, Technically, USD/CAD is trading near resistance at 1.4525, with support at 1.4283 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news event, Technical levels show resistance near $68.48 and support around $65.640.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Fall Again on Trade War Fears – Nasdaq Down 2%

US stocks were hit hard again last night as the escalating global trade war overshadowed cooler US inflation data. The Dow Jones closed down 1.3%, the S&P dropped 1.39%, confirming that it is in a technical correction, and the Nasdaq fell 1.96%. US Treasury yields declined after PPI numbers came in worse than expected, with the 2-year down 3 basis points to 3.956% and the 10-year off 4.4 basis points to 4.268%. Haven flows helped the dollar regain some of its recent losses, with the DXY up 0.23% to 103.84. Oil prices fell sharply again as global growth concerns continued to weigh, with Brent down 1.11% to $70.16 and WTI dropping 1.67% to $66.55 a barrel. Gold surged higher, smashing through resistance to reach new record levels, closing up 1.85% by the New York close at $2,989.82.

Gold Shines as Market Worries Grow

Gold prices surged last night as continued global trade uncertainty and the potential for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve helped push the world’s favourite precious metal to new record levels. Spot gold closed the session up 1.85% yesterday and is now up nearly 15% in 2025, having risen 27% in 2024. Traders now believe it is only a matter of hours, rather than days, before another significant milestone is reached and gold touches $3,000 an ounce. If uncertainty over tariffs continues to dominate the market, investors are likely to keep seeking haven assets, potentially driving gold even higher. However, a sharp change in circumstances—particularly any certainty in the markets or a reduction in tariffs—could trigger a downturn, and given the speed of the recent rise, any corrections could be equally sharp and severe.

Another Busy Trading Day to End the Week

At the start of the trading week, many traders may have expected smoother market conditions, given the relatively quiet macroeconomic event calendar. However, this has not been the case, as frequent geopolitical updates have led to increased volatility across financial markets. Once again, there is nothing of note on the calendar during the Asian session, but early in the European day, attention will be on the UK economy with the release of the latest GDP data. Later in the day, US data will be released, including the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations figures. However, geopolitical developments and global trade updates are expected to dominate market sentiment through to the New York close today.

The post General Market Analysis – 14/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 14/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.03%, Shanghai Composite down 0.40%, Hang Seng down 0.88% ASX down 0.48%
• Commodities : Gold at $2948.35 (0.10%), Silver at $33.5 (-0.48%), Brent Oil at $70.75 (-0.05%), WTI Oil at $67.58 (-0.14%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.296, UK 10-year yield at 4.7245, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8765

News & Data:

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2%  to 0,3% expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0,2%  to 0.3% expected
• (USD) CPI y/y 2.9%  to 2.9% expected
• (CAD) Overnight rate  2.75%  to 2.75% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed trends Thursday after a soft U.S. inflation report helped two of Wall Street’s three benchmarks recover from recent losses. The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, bringing annual inflation to 2.8%. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizhuo Bank, called it “welcome relief” but noted it’s premature for the Federal Reserve to ease its stance.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat, while the Topix index edged up 0.18%. Seven & i Holdings climbed 3.6% as Canadian convenience store giant Alimentation Couche-Tard continued efforts to acquire the 7-Eleven operator with a $47 billion bid—the largest-ever foreign buyout in Japan. However, Seven & i has remained resistant, citing regulatory concerns. South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq both declined, reversing earlier gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.2%, while China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.54%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.48%, marking its third consecutive day of declines.

Indian stocks gained after inflation cooled to 3.61% in February. Nomura economists predict inflation will stay below 4% in early 2025. The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex were up 0.15% and 0.16%, respectively. Investors are watching how subdued demand, higher crop output, and lower manufacturing costs will impact inflation trends in the coming months.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq surged 1.22% as tech stocks rebounded. Nvidia soared 6.4%, AMD rose over 4%, Meta gained 2%, and Tesla jumped more than 7%. The S&P 500 added 0.49%, while the Dow slipped 0.2%. The broader market rally was fueled by investor optimism following the inflation report, which eased concerns about a looming recession.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 13th March 2025: Global Markets Mixed as U.S. Inflation Eases and Tech Stocks Rebound first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Melbourne Institute (MI) released its findings on consumer inflation expectations for March where expectations eased to 3.6%, falling from 4.6% in the previous month. Despite inflationary pressures dissipating in Australia, the Aussie has received a strong boost in recent weeks due to significant weakness in the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) stabilized around 103.30 by midday in Asia while spot prices for gold look to make another attempt to surpass the intraday record high of $2,956.29/oz.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Industrial activity in the Euro Area declined 1.1% MoM in December 2024 as categories such as capital goods; intermediate goods; and durable consumer goods led the downturn. However, with the recent announcement of fiscal policy actions to be taken by the EU, particularly Germany, the industrial and manufacturing base is now expected to see a resurgence in output. Production is now expected to rise 0.5% MoM in January and the upward momentum will likely keep the euro buoyed throughout the first quarter of this year.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

PPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – has accelerated since the final quarter of last year. However, headline PPI is now expected to ease from an annual rate of 3.5% in January to 3.3% in February. Should wholesale prices also point to slower price gains, they are likely to function as an additional catalyst to soothe market nerves. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to remain somewhat steady with a forecast of 226k; a result that would reflect a steady labour market.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – has accelerated since the final quarter of last year. However, headline PPI is now expected to ease from an annual rate of 3.5% in January to 3.3% in February. Should wholesale prices also point to slower price gains, they are likely to function as an additional catalyst to soothe market nerves. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to remain somewhat steady with a forecast of 226k; a result that would reflect a steady labour market.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

MI Inflation Expectations (12:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Melbourne Institute (MI) released its findings on consumer inflation expectations for March where expectations eased to 3.6%, falling from 4.6% in the previous month. Despite inflationary pressures dissipating in Australia, the Aussie has received a strong boost in recent weeks due to significant weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

A significantly weaker greenback continued to keep the Kiwi elevated on Wednesday – this currency pair edged higher toward 0.5750 as Asian markets came online on Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen waned noticeably over the past couple of days with USD/JPY rising nearly 1.4% at its highest point. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 149.19 on Wednesday before retreating sharply lower – it was hovering around 148.20 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Industrial Production (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial activity in the Euro Area declined 1.1% MoM in December 2024 as categories such as capital goods; intermediate goods; and durable consumer goods led the downturn. However, with the recent announcement of fiscal policy actions to be taken by the EU, particularly Germany, the industrial and manufacturing base is now expected to see a resurgence in output. Production is now expected to rise 0.5% MoM in January and the upward momentum will likely keep the euro buoyed throughout the first quarter of this year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

After appreciating strongly last week, demand for the franc waned as USD/CHF stabilized around 0.8800 on Monday before climbing higher. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 0.8852 on Wednesday before falling sharply, briefly dipping under the threshold of 0.8800. Demand for the franc appears to be returning and the downward momentum could pick up once more in the second half of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After hitting a high of 1.2987 on Wednesday, Cable took a breather to pull back toward 1.2960.  This currency pair remained elevated as Asian markets came online, floating around 1.2990.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) moved ahead with its seventh successive rate cut by reducing the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 2.75%. The Governing Council noted that the Canadian economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts. However, growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the US, noting that the continuously changing tariff threats hurt consumer confidence and investment expectations. In the meantime, the end of tax credits is expected to drive incoming inflation gauges to accelerate toward 2.5% after headline inflation remained below the 2.0% target for multiple months. The Loonie initially weakened post-announcement as USD/CAD rose as high as 1.4430 before retreating lower by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair stabilized around 1.4360 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session and was seen edging higher.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Following the larger-than-anticipated build in the API stockpiles on Tuesday, the EIA inventories also rose for the second consecutive week as nearly 1.5M barrels of crude were added. Rising storage levels reflect weaker demand for oil in the United States – a theme that has been running since the beginning of February. Combined with trade uncertainties and OPEC+’s latest plan to unwind voluntary production cuts in April, oil prices continue to remain under the cosh. However, WTI oil found a temporary floor around $66 per barrel at the beginning of this week to climb 2.6%, hitting an overnight high of $67.88.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0765
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.0636
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0937
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 161.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 159.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 163.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8388
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8447
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2811
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.2689
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.2980
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 193.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 191.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

 Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8776
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8699
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8857
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 146.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 144.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 150.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4354

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.4283
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4525
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6353

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6246

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6401
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5742

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5677

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5772

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 42,011.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 41,088.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,451.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,862.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 22,163.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,311.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,650.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,494.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,770.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 78,488.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 73,304.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 86,859.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,022.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,524.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,304.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 68.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the descending channel and the red Ichimoku Cloud add further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 70.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could rise towards the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2945.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressure could intensify.

1st support: 2913.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2964.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 13th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After accelerating from September of last year through January 2025, with headline CPI surging from an annual rate of 2.4% in September 2024 to 3.0% in January this year, consumer inflation in the U.S. cooled in February. Headline CPI eased from an annual rate of 3.0% in the previous month to 2.8% while the core moderated from 3.3% to 3.1%. On a monthly basis, price pressures also increased lower than market forecasts, lifting overall market sentiment as investors turned to ‘risk-on’ mode overnight. However, the ongoing backdrop of trade uncertainties continues to linger and traders should brace themselves for any unscheduled announcements made by the White House and/or U.S. President Donald Trump himself.
As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) moved ahead with its seventh successive rate cut by reducing the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 2.75%. The Governing Council noted that the Canadian economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts. However, growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the US, noting that the continuously changing tariff threats hurt consumer confidence and investment expectations. In the meantime, the end of tax credits is expected to drive incoming inflation gauges to accelerate toward 2.5% after headline inflation remained below the 2.0% target for multiple months. The Loonie initially weakened post-announcement as USD/CAD rose as high as 1.4430 before retreating lower by the end of the U.S. session.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Melbourne Institute (MI) released its findings on consumer inflation expectations for March where expectations eased to 3.6%, falling from 4.6% in the previous month. Despite inflationary pressures dissipating in Australia, the Aussie has received a strong boost in recent weeks due to significant weakness in the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, overhead pressures remain firmly intact keeping the dollar index (DXY) restricted under the 104 level.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

PPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – has accelerated since the final quarter of last year. However, headline PPI is now expected to ease from an annual rate of 3.5% in January to 3.3% in February. Should wholesale prices also point to slower price gains, they are likely to function as an additional catalyst to soothe market nerves. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to remain somewhat steady with a forecast of 226k; a result that would reflect a steady labour market.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – has accelerated since the final quarter of last year. However, headline PPI is now expected to ease from an annual rate of 3.5% in January to 3.3% in February. Should wholesale prices also point to slower price gains, they are likely to function as an additional catalyst to soothe market nerves. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to remain somewhat steady with a forecast of 226k; a result that would reflect a steady labour market.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

MI Inflation Expectations (12:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Melbourne Institute (MI) released its findings on consumer inflation expectations for March where expectations eased to 3.6%, falling from 4.6% in the previous month. Despite inflationary pressures dissipating in Australia, the Aussie has received a strong boost in recent weeks due to significant weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

A significantly weaker greenback continued to keep the Kiwi elevated on Wednesday – this currency pair edged higher toward 0.5750 as Asian markets came online on Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen waned noticeably over the past couple of days with USD/JPY rising nearly 1.4% at its highest point. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 149.19 on Wednesday before retreating sharply lower – it was hovering around 148.20 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Industrial Production (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial activity in the Euro Area declined 1.1% MoM in December 2024 as categories such as capital goods; intermediate goods; and durable consumer goods led the downturn. However, with the recent announcement of fiscal policy actions to be taken by the EU, particularly Germany, the industrial and manufacturing base is now expected to see a resurgence in output. Production is now expected to rise 0.5% MoM in January and the upward momentum will likely keep the euro buoyed throughout the first quarter of this year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

After appreciating strongly last week, demand for the franc waned as USD/CHF stabilized around 0.8800 on Monday before climbing higher. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 0.8852 on Wednesday before falling sharply, briefly dipping under the threshold of 0.8800. Demand for the franc appears to be returning and the downward momentum could pick up once more in the second half of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After hitting a high of 1.2987 on Wednesday, Cable took a breather to pull back toward 1.2960.  This currency pair remained elevated as Asian markets came online, floating around 1.2990.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) moved ahead with its seventh successive rate cut by reducing the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 2.75%. The Governing Council noted that the Canadian economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts. However, growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the US, noting that the continuously changing tariff threats hurt consumer confidence and investment expectations. In the meantime, the end of tax credits is expected to drive incoming inflation gauges to accelerate toward 2.5% after headline inflation remained below the 2.0% target for multiple months. The Loonie initially weakened post-announcement as USD/CAD rose as high as 1.4430 before retreating lower by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair stabilized around 1.4360 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session and was seen edging higher.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Following the larger-than-anticipated build in the API stockpiles on Tuesday, the EIA inventories also rose for the second consecutive week as nearly 1.5M barrels of crude were added. Rising storage levels reflect weaker demand for oil in the United States – a theme that has been running since the beginning of February. Combined with trade uncertainties and OPEC+’s latest plan to unwind voluntary production cuts in April, oil prices continue to remain under the cosh. However, WTI oil found a temporary floor around $66 per barrel at the beginning of this week to climb 2.6%, hitting an overnight high of $67.88.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rise After Weaker CPI Data – Nasdaq Up 1.2%

US stocks rose in trading yesterday after a lower inflation print increased hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The headline CPI figure came in 0.1% lower than expected, confirming a cooling US economy, and investors pushed back into tech stocks. The Dow closed down 0.2%, but the tech-heavy S&P and Nasdaq recorded strong gains on the day, rising 0.49% and 1.22% respectively.

Treasury yields and the dollar both finished higher despite the data release, with the 2-year yield up 4.3 basis points to 3.986% and the 10-year yield up 3.2 basis points to 4.312%. The DXY rose 0.15% to 103.58.

Oil prices also surged following lower-than-expected US oil inventories, with Brent crude up 2.04% to $70.98 per barrel and WTI rising 2.16% to $67.68 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold continued its climb towards record levels, increasing 0.65% to $2,937.56.

Dollar Remains Under Pressure

The US dollar index snapped a seven-day losing streak yesterday but remains under pressure, as ongoing market uncertainty over tariffs and global trade tensions weighs on investor sentiment. The index has now retraced the gains made after the November election of President Trump and the Republican Party, which had initially sparked inflation concerns, falling more than 6% from its January highs.

Some traders believe the market may now undergo a reset following this sharp decline, particularly if geopolitical uncertainty eases. While US economic data has weakened over the past few months, many feel this has already been priced into the dollar. With several major currency pairs approaching key technical levels on longer-term charts, the greenback’s fortunes could shift in the coming sessions.

More US Inflation Data in Focus

This week has been relatively quiet in terms of macroeconomic data releases and central bank updates, and today is no exception. There is little of note on the calendar during the Asian and European trading sessions, but key US inflation data is due shortly after the New York open.

Producer Price Index (PPI) data is scheduled for release, and while its impact is typically lower than last night’s CPI figure, significant market moves could follow if the data deviates from the expected 0.3% month-on-month increase for both the headline and core figures. At the same time, weekly unemployment claims data will be released, with expectations for a 226,000 print—an increase of just 5,000 from last week’s figure.

The post General Market Analysis – 13/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

We would like to inform our users that our TradingView platform will undergo a scheduled restart at the end of the trading day (EOD) today (12th March 2025). This restart is expected to take approximately 5 to 10 minutes.

The reason for this restart is to ensure synchronization of our trading hours with cTrader for the affected symbols following the U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) change on March 9. During the downtime, clients can manage their trades via the cTrader platform.

We apologize for any inconvenience this brief downtime may cause and appreciate your patience. If you have any questions or need further clarification, please do not hesitate to contact our customer support team.

We thank you for your understanding.

IC Markets Global.

The post Scheduled Maintenance for TradingView Platform first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 13/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.