US Markets Rally After Jobs Report – Nasdaq up 0.8%

US employment data aligned closely with market expectations on Friday, boosting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and driving stock markets higher. However, the rally was not universal, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.28%. Tech stocks surged, propelling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new records, with the S&P rising 0.25% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.81%. Treasury yields fell to six-week lows, with the two-year yield dropping 4.8 basis points to 4.096% and the ten-year declining 2.9 basis points to 4.147%. Oil prices also fell amid persistent supply concerns, with Brent crude down 1.43% to $71.06 and WTI slipping 1.64% to $67.17. Gold experienced a choppy trading range around the employment data but ultimately closed up 0.3%, settling at $2,632.49.

Dollar in Focus Again This Week

The US dollar will remain a focal point for FX traders this week, with the final piece of the Federal Reserve’s current policy puzzle due on Wednesday. Crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released midweek, and a print in line with expectations is likely to solidify a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Fed next week. Current market pricing suggests an 85% probability of such a move; however, stronger-than-expected CPI figures could temper these bets and prompt the dollar to regain strength against major and emerging market currencies. The dollar index has steadied around the 106.00 mark in recent days, though traders anticipate potential upside driven by data and geopolitical developments, both domestic and international. While inflation data could trigger a short-term surge in the dollar, longer-term perspectives suggest that the policies of the incoming Trump administration in 2025 may play a more significant role in the currency’s upward trajectory.

Quiet Start to the Trading Week

The trading week begins quietly on the macroeconomic calendar, with activity expected to pick up in the coming days as key central bank rate decisions and economic data are released. Early attention will focus on Chinese markets, with the release of the latest CPI and PPI data from the world’s second-largest economy. The headline CPI figure is anticipated to show a 0.4% year-on-year increase, while PPI data is expected to indicate a 2.8% year-on-year decline. Beyond these reports, there is little else scheduled in the later trading sessions of the day. However, market participants anticipate movements across asset classes as geopolitical headlines continue to influence sentiment.

The post General Market Analysis – 09/12/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It looks set to be another busy week for financial markets next week, with a macroeconomic calendar dominated by central bank rate decisions and key US inflation data.

Crucial rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank are scheduled to take place in the coming days, alongside key CPI and PPI releases from the US, which are expected to confirm the Federal Reserve’s course of action next week. In addition, several important data releases from other jurisdictions are on the horizon, creating the conditions for what could be a very lively trading week.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

The trading week begins quietly from a calendar perspective, with only Chinese CPI and PPI data due to be released during the trading sessions. However, traders anticipate market movement as the implications of Friday’s US employment data update continue to be digested.

Tuesday brings the first key central bank rate decision of the week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia set to announce its latest decision during the Asian session. The remainder of the day’s calendar remains relatively light.

Wednesday starts quietly again, with a sparse calendar for the first two trading sessions. However, the focus will shift sharply early in the New York session with the release of the final CPI update before the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. Additionally, the Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its latest rate decision, with a 50-basis point cut anticipated by markets.

Thursday is by far the busiest day in the macroeconomic calendar, featuring a range of tier 1 data and central bank announcements. The Asian session begins with Australia’s key employment data, followed by rate decisions from both the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank during the European session. Later, the New York session brings further inflation data in the form of PPI figures, as well as the weekly US unemployment claims numbers.

From feast to famine, traders are expecting a quieter day on Friday after the plethora of updates on Thursday. There is little on the calendar in the Asian session and there will be a strong focus on the UK markets on the European open when the latest US GDP data is released, however most market participants are expecting smoother trading conditions into the weekend with no major updates scheduled in the US session.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 09 December 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 09/12/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The crypto market has hit a historic milestone—Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 mark, achieving over 140% growth this year! This monumental achievement signals a transformative phase for cryptocurrency, fuelled by institutional adoption, favourable regulatory developments, and increasing recognition of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

A Deeper Look at what’s driving Bitcoin’s Growth?

1. Institutional Adoption

Major financial institutions are embracing Bitcoin at an unprecedented scale. Significant inflows into Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) underscore this shift. For instance, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has attracted substantial assets, highlighting surging institutional interest. This endorsement from traditional financial powerhouses validates Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class.

2. Regulatory Developments

A crypto-friendly regulatory environment is bolstering market confidence. Notably, President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins—a pro-crypto advocate—as head of the SEC has sparked optimism for clear, supportive policies. Regulatory clarity is paving the way for broader market participation and innovation.

3. Market Sentiment

Statements from influential figures like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who compared Bitcoin to “digital gold,” are solidifying its role as a store of value. This legitimization is boosting investor confidence and attracting capital from both retail and institutional investors.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s journey past $100,000 is just the beginning, with exciting opportunities and challenges on the horizon:

• Continued Growth: Analysts predict Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by 2025, driven by global adoption and use as a payment system and hedge against unstable currencies.

• Regulatory Developments: While recent regulations are encouraging, the market’s future depends on clear global frameworks for trading, taxation, and security.

• Market Volatility: Bitcoin’s history shows that major price milestones often lead to corrections. Investors should prepare for fluctuations as the market adjusts to new demand levels.

• Competition and Innovation: Bitcoin faces growing competition from Ethereum and emerging blockchain technologies. Innovations like DeFi and NFTs could shift focus toward alternative cryptocurrencies.

• Environmental Pressures: Bitcoin mining’s energy consumption remains a challenge. The industry must move toward sustainability, which could reshape mining practices and supply dynamics.

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The post What’s Next For Bitcoin After Hitting $100,000? first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Pull Back Ahead of Jobs Numbers – Dow Down 0.5%

US stocks retreated from recent record levels ahead of the key jobs numbers due later today. The Dow declined by 0.55%, the S&P 500 fell 0.19%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.18% lower as investors awaited the data and assessed its potential impact on the Federal Reserve. The dollar weakened significantly, with the Euro rallying in response. The DXY index dropped 0.61% on the day, closing at 105.71. US Treasury yields remained mixed ahead of the data, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 4.141%, while the 10-year yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 4.178%.

Oil prices were stagnant, with Brent slipping by 0.08% to $72.25 and WTI losing 0.06%, closing the session at $68.50 per barrel. Gold prices experienced more movement, falling to the lower end of their recent range, finishing the day 0.68% lower at $2,632.95.

Non-Farms to Lock in Fed Cut

Investors are closely monitoring today’s key US employment data, with many expecting it to confirm a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting. Market consensus forecasts a 218,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase.

With overall US inflation on track to fall within the Fed’s target range, the focus remains on wage inflation, which could jeopardise future rate cuts if it accelerates. On-target or lower-than-expected prints today should confirm the anticipated 25-basis-point cut in just over a week. However, stronger-than-expected figures could temper rate-cut expectations, leading to higher yields and a stronger dollar.

Calendar Focus on US Employment Today

The macroeconomic calendar today is dominated by the US employment data. Geopolitical risks have eased over the past few trading sessions, but traders will continue monitoring news wires for any developments.

Asian markets are expected to begin the day slightly lower, following Wall Street’s retreat from recent highs, with little on the economic calendar likely to shift market sentiment early on. Similarly, European trading is expected to start on a subdued note. However, the release of the US employment report for November is anticipated to alter market dynamics significantly once US trading begins.

Canadian employment data, also scheduled for release today, is expected to be largely overlooked as markets remain firmly focused on the implications of the US figures.

The post General Market Analysis – 06/12/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 06/12/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher After Fed Chair – Nasdaq Up 1.3%

US stock indices surged to fresh record levels in trading yesterday following positive comments on the US economy from the Federal Reserve Chair. The Nasdaq led the gains, closing up 1.29%, followed by the Dow and S&P, which ended the session up 0.70% and 0.61%, respectively.

Currency markets remained volatile as geopolitical factors continued to weigh heavily. The Euro dropped sharply after the confirmation of a French government collapse but later recovered, with the DXY closing the day down 0.10% at 106.32. Treasury yields declined as the market continued to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed. The 2-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.127%, while the 10-year yield dropped 1.5 basis points to 4.184%.

Oil prices slid ahead of today’s key OPEC+ meetings, with Brent down 1.78% to $72.31 and WTI falling 2% to $68.54. Gold traded within a relatively tight range, gaining 0.4% to close at $2,654.23.

FX Traders Prepare for More Moves on Geopolitics

FX traders are preparing for further sharp currency movements in the coming sessions, following recent political shocks in South Korea and France that triggered significant market reactions. While both the won and the Euro have since stabilised, market participants are closely monitoring news updates and expect continued volatility in these currencies.

The prevailing sentiment suggests further downside risks due to ongoing uncertainty; however, traders acknowledge the potential for equally strong upward moves if positive developments emerge. Geopolitical factors remain a dominant driver of market sentiment.

More Data Today Ahead of Tomorrow’s NFP

Markets are expected to remain active today as traders digest an eventful overnight session in the US, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments. Geopolitical developments, which have been unfolding rapidly this week, also remain a key focus.

The Asian session is likely to be relatively quiet due to a sparse economic calendar. However, UK markets will come into focus during the European open, with Construction PMI data due early in the day. The forecast is for a print of 53.5.

In the US, weekly unemployment claims are scheduled during the New York session (forecast: 215,000), with attention later shifting to Canada for the release of Ivey PMI figures. As traders prepare for tomorrow’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, markets are likely to see continued activity throughout the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 05/12/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.42%, Shanghai Composite up 0.11%, Hang Seng down 1.14% ASX up 0.15%
• Commodities : Gold at $2672.35 (-0.14%), Silver at $31.9 (-0.18%), Brent Oil at $72.4 (0.06%), WTI Oil at $68.27 (0.09%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.196, UK 10-year yield at 4.247, Germany 10-year yield at 2.0515

News & Data:

• (USD) ADP Non – Farm Employment Change 146K vs 152K expected
• (USD) ISM Services PMI 52.1 vs 55.7 expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Thursday as Wall Street benchmarks hit record highs despite ongoing global political turmoil. Investors monitored developments in South Korea, where lawmakers filed an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law. Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon’s ruling People Power Party, announced plans to oppose the motion. Meanwhile, opposition party representatives indicated a vote would occur on Saturday evening, local time. Yoon’s office defended the martial law declaration as constitutional.

South Korea’s revised third-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.5% annually, aligning with prior estimates. However, its markets struggled, with the Kospi falling 0.44% and the Kosdaq dipping 0.14%. Across Asia, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.31%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures dropped over 1%, while China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.13%.

Bitcoin surged, crossing the $100,000 milestone to hit $103,844, reflecting strong investor interest amidst the political instability.

In the U.S., major indexes set new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 308.51 points (0.69%) to 45,014.04, surpassing the 45,000 mark. The S&P 500 climbed 0.61% to 6,086.49, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.3% to close at 19,735.12, driven by tech stocks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the robust U.S. economy encouraged optimism, with markets anticipating Friday’s unemployment report and a possible Fed rate cut in two weeks.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Trade Balance
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Trade Balance
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 5th December 2024: Markets Navigate Political Unrest as Wall Street Hits New Highs first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast |

 5 December 2024

What happened in the Asia session?

During the Asian session, the U.S. dollar exhibited slight weakening due to declining Treasury yields, leading to modest appreciation in the Japanese yen (USD/JPY at 150.31). 

The Australian dollar remained stable around $0.6420, following a prior decline from weaker-than-expected GDP data. 

The New Zealand dollar held steady near $0.5900 amid a lack of significant domestic economic news.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The dollar’s slight weakening may persist into the European and U.S. sessions, especially if upcoming U.S. economic data, such as unemployment claims, indicate a softening labor market. This could lead to further dollar depreciation against major currencies.

Euro (EUR): Political uncertainty in France has recently pressured the euro. If this instability continues, the euro may face additional downward pressure in the European session.

British Pound (GBP): The pound’s movement will depend on domestic economic indicators and Brexit-related developments. Absent significant news, it may trade within a narrow range.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims  (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to react to today’s Unemployment Claims data release at 1:30 pm GMT. If claims are lower than anticipated, indicating a robust labor market, the DXY may strengthen due to expectations of stable or tightening monetary policy. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims could signal labor market softening, potentially leading to a weaker DXY as markets anticipate a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance. Historically, significant deviations in unemployment claims have prompted notable movements in the DXY

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50% to 4.75% on 7th November.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims  (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have recently edged up, with spot gold at $2,649.09 per ounce, as investors anticipate U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for insights into future interest rate policies.

Analysts predict that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025, driven by expected U.S. interest rate cuts and increased demand.

However, the upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data at 1:30 pm GMT today could influence gold’s immediate trajectory. Lower-than-expected claims may strengthen the dollar, potentially pressuring gold prices, while higher claims could weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Without major news events, AUD’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6376

Resistance: 0.6447

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 5th November, marking the eighth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but the forecasts published in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026.
• Headline inflation was 2.8% over the year to the September quarter, down from 3.8% over the year to the June quarter; this was as expected due to declines in fuel and electricity prices in the September quarter.
• However, this decline reflects a temporary cost of living relief; abstracting from these effects, underlying inflation (as represented by the trimmed mean) was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter and is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• Growth in output has been weak as past declines in real disposable incomes and the ongoing effect of restrictive financial conditions continue to weigh on household consumption, particularly discretionary consumption.
• However, growth in aggregate consumer demand, which includes spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists, has remained more resilient.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight, and while conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised.
• Employment grew strongly over the three months to September, by an average of 0.4% per month but the unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, up from the trough of 3.5% in late 2022.
• While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high while the November SMP forecasts suggest that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and approaching the midpoint.
• This reinforces the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and it will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
• Next meeting is on 10 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Without major news events, NZD’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5814

Resistance: 0.5935

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 4.25% in November, as inflation aligns with the target range of 1 to 3%
• The Committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation has slowed to 2.2%, converging towards the 2% midpoint of the target range, reflecting the effects of restrictive monetary policy and easing global commodity prices.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued, with weak business investment and consumer spending. Employment growth has softened, and the labor market shows signs of slack, with filled jobs and advertised vacancies continuing to decline.
• The economy is operating below capacity, facilitating a transition to a low-inflation environment. Falling import prices have supported disinflationary pressures, contributing to a slowdown in inflationary expectations.
• High-frequency indicators point to modest growth in the near term, as constrained household budgets and cautious business sentiment limit economic momentum. The Committee anticipates further weakness in the labor market.
• The Committee confirmed that future OCR adjustments would depend on its evolving assessment of inflation, employment, and broader economic conditions.
• Next meeting is on 27 February  2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Without major news events, JPY’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 148.92

Resistance: 151.59

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31st October, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• While the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2025 is somewhat lower due to factors such as the recent decline in crude oil and other resource prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Without major news events, EUR’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.0390

Resistance: 1.0531

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
• The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Without major news events, CHF’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8773

Resistance: 0.8903

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
• Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
• The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
• However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Without major news events, GBP’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2612

Resistance: 1.2755

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7th November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
• CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
• The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
• GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
• The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
• Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
• Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• Next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Without major news events, CAD’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3959

Resistance: 1.4094

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd October; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
• The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
• The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
• With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
• If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• Next meeting is on 11 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news events today, oil prices may remain relatively stable, driven by technical factors and market sentiment – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 68.02

Resistance: 70.60

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 5 December 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 106.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 105.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 107.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 1.05321

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0390

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 1.0604
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 158.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 155.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 160.49
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.8309

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8267

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.8375
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.2612
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 1.2491

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance:  1.2755
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 189.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 188.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 190.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.8903

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8774
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.8958
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 151.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 148.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 153.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 1.4094

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3959
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where price could find support once more

1st resistance: 1.4176
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.6447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6376
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a key support area where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.6540
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.5935
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5814
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a key support area where price could find support.

1st resistance: 0.6027
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 45,031.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 44,339.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 45,573.41

Supporting reasons: Aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 19,944.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 19,680.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 20,203.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance close to 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 6,079.60

Supporting reasons: Aligns with 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 6,013.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support again.

1st resistance: 6,143.59
Supporting reasons: Aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 96,827.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 96.827.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 101,211.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 3,743.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 3,504.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again

1st resistance: 3,945.97
Supporting reasons:  IAligns with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 68.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support:  66.79
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 70.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 2664.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2599.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 2713.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 5th December 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast |

 5 December 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the U.S. trading session yesterday, the market experienced modest fluctuations. The U.S. dollar initially strengthened following the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, which showed the private sector added 146,000 jobs in November, slightly below expectations. However, the ISM Services PMI later revealed a decline to 52.1 in November from 56.0 in October, indicating a slowdown in the services sector and tempering the dollar’s earlier gains. Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the U.S. economy as “remarkably” good and expressed satisfaction with the current monetary policy stance, reinforcing expectations of a December interest rate cut and leading to a relatively stable dollar as markets had largely anticipated this move.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The U.S. dollar’s performance during the December 4, 2024, New York session, characterized by initial strengthening due to employment data followed by stabilization after mixed economic indicators and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, is expected to lead to limited volatility for the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) during today’s Asian session

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims  (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to react to today’s Unemployment Claims data release at 1:30 pm GMT. If claims are lower than anticipated, indicating a robust labor market, the DXY may strengthen due to expectations of stable or tightening monetary policy. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims could signal labor market softening, potentially leading to a weaker DXY as markets anticipate a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance. Historically, significant deviations in unemployment claims have prompted notable movements in the DXY

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50% to 4.75% on 7th November.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims  (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have recently edged up, with spot gold at $2,649.09 per ounce, as investors anticipate U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for insights into future interest rate policies.

Analysts predict that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025, driven by expected U.S. interest rate cuts and increased demand.

However, the upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data at 1:30 pm GMT today could influence gold’s immediate trajectory. Lower-than-expected claims may strengthen the dollar, potentially pressuring gold prices, while higher claims could weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Without major news events, AUD’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6376

Resistance: 0.6447

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 5th November, marking the eighth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but the forecasts published in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026.
• Headline inflation was 2.8% over the year to the September quarter, down from 3.8% over the year to the June quarter; this was as expected due to declines in fuel and electricity prices in the September quarter.
• However, this decline reflects a temporary cost of living relief; abstracting from these effects, underlying inflation (as represented by the trimmed mean) was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter and is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• Growth in output has been weak as past declines in real disposable incomes and the ongoing effect of restrictive financial conditions continue to weigh on household consumption, particularly discretionary consumption.
• However, growth in aggregate consumer demand, which includes spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists, has remained more resilient.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight, and while conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised.
• Employment grew strongly over the three months to September, by an average of 0.4% per month but the unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, up from the trough of 3.5% in late 2022.
• While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high while the November SMP forecasts suggest that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and approaching the midpoint.
• This reinforces the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and it will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
• Next meeting is on 10 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Without major news events, NZD’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5814

Resistance: 0.5935

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 4.25% in November, as inflation aligns with the target range of 1 to 3%
• The Committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation has slowed to 2.2%, converging towards the 2% midpoint of the target range, reflecting the effects of restrictive monetary policy and easing global commodity prices.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued, with weak business investment and consumer spending. Employment growth has softened, and the labor market shows signs of slack, with filled jobs and advertised vacancies continuing to decline.
• The economy is operating below capacity, facilitating a transition to a low-inflation environment. Falling import prices have supported disinflationary pressures, contributing to a slowdown in inflationary expectations.
• High-frequency indicators point to modest growth in the near term, as constrained household budgets and cautious business sentiment limit economic momentum. The Committee anticipates further weakness in the labor market.
• The Committee confirmed that future OCR adjustments would depend on its evolving assessment of inflation, employment, and broader economic conditions.
• Next meeting is on 27 February  2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Without major news events, JPY’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 148.92

Resistance: 151.59

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31st October, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• While the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2025 is somewhat lower due to factors such as the recent decline in crude oil and other resource prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Without major news events, EUR’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.0390

Resistance: 1.0531

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
• The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Without major news events, CHF’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8773

Resistance: 0.8903

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
• Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
• The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
• However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Without major news events, GBP’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2612

Resistance: 1.2755

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7th November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
• CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
• The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
• GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
• The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
• Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
• Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• Next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Without major news events, CAD’s movement today is likely to be driven by technical factors, market sentiment, and overall risk appetite –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3959

Resistance: 1.4094

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd October; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
• The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
• The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
• With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
• If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• Next meeting is on 11 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news events today, oil prices may remain relatively stable, driven by technical factors and market sentiment – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 68.02

Resistance: 70.60

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 5 December 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 05/12/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.