DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0930
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0766
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1100
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 161.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 159.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8435
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8356
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8472
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3046

Supporting reasons: Identified as a mulit swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2810
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 194.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 191.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 107.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.89868

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 0.8772
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8921
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1510.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 148.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.4514

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4240
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4752
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 70.6330

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6253

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6403
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5829

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.2 Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5771

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5891

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with  the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot:  42,007.78

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 40,656.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,014.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,743.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support t that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 22,267.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,273.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,773.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 5,611.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,925.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 85,416.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 80,172.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 90,136.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,046.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance tha taligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify..

1st support: 1,750.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,265.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 68.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 65.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2954.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 2924.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support t, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3033.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 18th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the U.S. forex trading session on March 17, 2025, the U.S. dollar faced downward pressure following weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data. Headline retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.6%, while Core Retail Sales met expectations at 0.3%, raising concerns about slowing consumer spending.

As a result, EUR/USD climbed toward $1.0900, benefiting from dollar weakness, while USD/JPY declined to 148.50, reflecting a shift toward safe-haven assets. GBP/USD gained above $1.2950, supported by improved risk sentiment, and AUD/USD moved toward 0.6350, driven by rising commodity prices. USD/CAD dropped below 1.3500, helped by higher oil prices. Meanwhile, gold remained above $3,000 per ounce, reinforcing safe-haven demand.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asia session is expected to extend U.S. dollar weakness following disappointing retail sales data. EUR/USD may continue its upward momentum toward 1.0900, while GBP/USD is likely to hold above 1.2950 as risk appetite remains stable. USD/JPY may stay under pressure, testing support near 148.00, as investors seek safe-haven assets.

Commodity currencies AUD/USD and NZD/USD could see further gains, benefiting from risk sentiment and rising commodity prices. USD/CAD is expected to remain below 1.3500, supported by higher oil prices. Gold (XAU/USD) may hold above $3,000, as weak U.S. data fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

With no major economic events scheduled, DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and recent weakness following softer U.S. retail sales data. The index is currently consolidating around 103.50, reflecting a cautious market outlook.

Key Levels on the Daily Timeframe:

Support at 103.00, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 104.00, a key barrier that, if breached, could push DXY toward 104.50.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

With no major economic events scheduled, gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The metal remains elevated above $3,000 per ounce, supported by continued safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at $2995, where buyers may defend to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at $3,014, a key level that, if breached, could push gold toward $3,022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

 With no major economic events scheduled, AUD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by improved risk appetite but faces resistance as traders assess broader market conditions.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.6329, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 0.6400, a key level that, if breached, could push AUD/USD toward 0.6500.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major economic events scheduled, NZD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movement. The pair remains supported by a weaker USD, holding near recent highs as risk appetite improves.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.5766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 0.5885, a key barrier that, if breached, could push NZD/USD toward 0.5900.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major news events, USD/JPY is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains under pressure as a weaker USD and improved risk appetite limit upside momentum.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 146.84, where buyers may attempt to hold the pair above recent lows.

Resistance at 151.32, a key level that, if breached, could push USD/JPY toward 154.00

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by dollar weakness, with upside potential as risk appetite stabilizes.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 1.0766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 1.0984, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events,USD/CHF is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily influenced by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains under pressure due to dollar weakness, while safe-haven demand for CHF could limit any upside.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.8772, where buyers may attempt to defend further downside.

Resistance at 0.8866, a key level that, if breached, could push USD/CHF toward 0.8915.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major economic events scheduled, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movement. The pair remains supported by broad USD weakness, with potential for further upside if risk appetite remains steady.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 1.2780, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level that, if breached, could push GBP/USD toward 1.3257.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is likely to experience volatility today as Canada releases its Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m data at 12:30 pm GMT. Core Retail Sales m/m is forecasted to rise by 0.4% (up from -0.4%), while Retail Sales m/m is expected to rebound to 0.7% (from -0.9%). These improvements suggest a recovery in consumer spending, which could support CAD strength if the actual data meets or exceeds expectations.

USD/CAD is currently trading around 1.4298, with immediate support near 1.4237 and potential resistance at 1.4515. However, recent trade tensions and the Bank of Canada’s rate cut decision may add uncertainty to CAD’s movement. Strong retail sales data could boost CAD, while weaker-than-expected results may lead to depreciation against major currencies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major economic events scheduled, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily influenced by global risk sentiment, supply-demand dynamics, and U.S. dollar movements. The market remains focused on geopolitical developments and inventory levels, which could drive short-term price action.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at $65.59, where buyers may step in to defend further downside.

Resistance at $68.92, a key barrier that, if breached, could push WTI toward $72.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally Again Ahead of Fed – Dow up 0.85%

US stock indices rallied for the second consecutive session yesterday as investors sought value ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow finished up 0.85%, the S&P added 0.64%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31%. The dollar took another step down after weaker retail sales figures, with the DXY dropping 0.32%. Treasury yields had a mixed day following the data, with the shorter-dated 2-year gaining 2.7 basis points to move up to 4.044%, while the benchmark 10-year fell 1.4 basis points to 4.298%. Oil prices were mixed as well, with Brent finishing up 0.69% at $71.07, whilst WTI lost 0.37% to move down to $67.33 a barrel. Gold remained bid near recent record levels, gaining 0.58% to close the NY session at $3,001.47.

Gold Remains in Focus for Uncertain Markets

Gold remains in demand while trading at record levels at the moment, as uncertainty continues to dominate markets. Investors are hoping for greater clarity this week from central banks and data updates. If this materialises, we could see some profit-taking and a pullback in gold prices. However, geopolitical developments will compete with fundamentals for headlines, and if they continue to instil doubt in investors’ minds, recent moves could extend even further, potentially breaking decisively above the $3,000 level. There is also a risk that central banks will strongly acknowledge this uncertainty, which could provide further upside potential. For most traders, the trend remains their friend, but they are prepared to act swiftly if conditions change in the next few days—particularly when we hear from the Fed late on Wednesday.

Markets Brace for More Volatility in the Days Ahead

Traders are preparing for increased volatility in the coming days as the macroeconomic calendar begins to intensify, bringing key data updates and major central bank rate decisions. Today’s calendar is relatively quiet, but the next few sessions are expected to be very busy. The Asian session today has little scheduled to move the markets, but some significant data releases are due in the next couple of trading sessions. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data is set for release during the London session today, with expectations for a 48.1 print—significantly higher than last month’s 26.0 result—reflecting recent updates on government spending plans. Once New York opens, the focus will shift to Canadian markets, with key CPI figures due shortly after the open. Expectations are for a 0.6% increase in the headline month-on-month data and a 2.7% print for the median year-on-year update.

The post General Market Analysis – 18/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 18/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.25%, Shanghai Composite up 0.16%, Hang Seng up 1.08% ASX up 0.83%
• Commodities : Gold at $2992.35 (0.20%), Silver at $34.25 (-0.68%), Brent Oil at $71.15 (0.65%), WTI Oil at $67.41 (0.74%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.309, UK 10-year yield at 4.6700, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8730

News & Data:

• (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 57.9  to 63.1 expected
• (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 4.9%  to 4.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Monday as investors closely monitored Chinese equities. Mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.11% in volatile trade, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 1.32%. On Sunday, China’s government introduced a “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption,” aiming to increase incomes and revive spending. Other initiatives include stabilizing the stock and real estate markets and encouraging a higher birth rate.

China’s retail sales grew 4.0% year-on-year for January-February, aligning with Reuters estimates and exceeding December’s 3.7% growth. Urban investment also surpassed expectations, rising 4.1% compared to a projected 3.6%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 1.34%, while the Topix index rose 1.46%. South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.70%, and the Kosdaq added 0.52%. India’s Nifty 50 opened 0.71% higher, with the BSE Sensex up 0.47%. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.67% in late trade.

U.S. futures slipped Sunday after markets closed lower last week, weighed by renewed tariff threats from Trump. However, Wall Street saw a strong rebound Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 674.62 points (1.65%) to 41,488.19. The S&P 500 jumped 2.13% to 5,638.94, and the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.61% to 17,754.09, marking their best trading day of 2025.

Big tech stocks recovered sharply. Nvidia surged over 5%, Tesla rose nearly 4%, and Meta gained close to 3%. Amazon and Apple also advanced, signaling renewed investor confidence in the sector.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Retail Sales m/m

The post Monday 17th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Climb as China Unveils Economic Boost Plan first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

During the Asian session, the U.S. dollar remained weak, hovering near a five-month low as concerns over U.S. economic uncertainty and inconsistent trade policies weighed on sentiment. The euro (EUR/USD) held near $1.0881, supported by Germany’s fiscal stimulus plans, while the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) strengthened to 148.75, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets. The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) rose to 0.6323

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European and U.S. sessions are expected to reflect continued U.S. dollar weakness from the Asian session, with EUR and GBP likely to remain supported in a risk-on environment. EUR/USD may extend gains above $1.0881, driven by Germany’s fiscal stimulus, while GBP/USD could remain range-bound between 1.2880 and 1.3000 in the absence of major catalysts.

In the U.S. session, focus shifts to the Retail Sales report at 2:00 PM GMT, which will dictate USD direction. A weak report could accelerate USD losses, while strong data may trigger a rebound. Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to stay above $3,000, supported by safe-haven demand, while USD/JPY may test support at 147.70 if risk-off sentiment prevails. The market remains highly reactive to economic data and shifting risk appetite.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to experience heightened volatility today, with market participants closely watching the release of Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m at 2:00 PM GMT. A stronger-than-expected retail sales report could reinforce expectations of economic resilience and sustained consumer spending, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and driving the DXY higher. Conversely, weaker-than-expected retail data may signal a slowdown in consumer activity, raising concerns about economic momentum and leading to DXY weakness as rate hike expectations soften.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD) recently surpassed the $3,000 milestone, reaching a high of $3,000+ per ounce before pulling back slightly to around $2,991.86. This surge was driven by increased central bank purchases, a weakening U.S. dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions, including trade tariff disputes and political uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a potential bearish correction, with key support near $2,905, while continued bullish momentum could see resistance at $3,125.

Today, gold’s movement will be influenced by the U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales reports at 2:00 PM GMT. A strong reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar, applying downward pressure on gold, while weaker-than-expected data could reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal and drive prices higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

With no major news events, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is expected to trade within its established technical range. The pair has recently rebounded from the 0.62 handle and is approaching the 0.6350 resistance zone, where selling pressure may emerge.

On the daily timeframe, key technical levels include:

Immediate Support at 0.6250, where buyers may step in to defend the level and attempt another push higher.

Key Resistance at 0.6350, a significant barrier that could cap further gains unless breached, in which case the next target would be the 0.65 handle.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major news events, NZD/USD is expected to trade within its established technical range, primarily driven by broader market sentiment and technical factors. The pair has been consolidating after recent moves, with price action likely to remain contained within key support and resistance levels.

On the daily timeframe, key levels to watch include:

Immediate Support at 0.5685, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside and attempt a rebound.

Key Resistance at 0.6800, a significant level where selling pressure could emerge, limiting upside potential. A breakout above this zone could push NZD/USD toward the 0.6000 handle.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major news events, JPY is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by broader market sentiment. USD/JPY is consolidating near 149.00, reflecting indecision.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 146.84, a critical level that could signal further downside if breached.

Resistance at 149.44, where a breakout could push USD/JPY toward 149.00

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. Dollar movements. EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.0840, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader macro trends.

Key levels on the daily timeframe: 

Support at 1.0674, a key level where buyers may step in to defend against further downside.

Resistance at 1.0984, a crucial barrier that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events, CHF is expected to trade within its technical range, primarily influenced by risk sentiment and U.S. Dollar strength. USD/CHF is consolidating near 0.8850, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 0.8750, where buyers may emerge to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 0.8912, a key barrier that, if broken, could push USD/CHF toward 0.8950.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

GBP is expected to trade within its technical range, influenced by market sentiment and U.S. Dollar strength. GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.2940, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader macro trends.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 1.2780, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level that, if breached, could push GBP/USD toward 1.3251

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major news events, CAD is expected to trade within its technical range, primarily influenced by oil prices and U.S. Dollar movements. USD/CAD is consolidating near 1.4300, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader market conditions.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 1.4149, where buyers may step in to limit downside movement.

Resistance at 1.4538, a key barrier that, if breached, could push USD/CAD toward 1.4800

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news event, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. WTI is consolidating near $70 per barrel, reflecting indecision as traders assess broader macroeconomic conditions.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at $65.5.00, where buyers may step in to defend against further downside.

Resistance at $69.56, a key barrier that, if breached, could push WTI toward $72.37

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 101.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0984
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0674
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1212
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 160.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 154.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 168.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8360
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 0.8297
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8497
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially drop further to the pivot in the short term before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2780
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 1.2539
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3045
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 194.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 188.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 199.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8915

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.9023
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 151.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 146.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 154.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.4485

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4149
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4743
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6396

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6189

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6538
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5861

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5685

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6045

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 41,805.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement,, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 40,071.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,257.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 22,190.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing low support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 20,525.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,464.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,813.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 5,539.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,141.78

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 73,711.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 66,232.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 91,788.08
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,746.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support t that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1,346.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,219.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 69.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 65.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 72.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2954.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 2921,69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2988.44
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 17th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The British Pound (GBP) weakened following a disappointing GDP m/m report of -0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.1%, signaling economic contraction and reducing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate hike. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) remained firm, despite a sharp decline in consumer sentiment, with the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropping to 57.9 from the expected 63.1. However, the impact of weak sentiment was offset by a rise in inflation expectations to 4.9% (from 4.3%), reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve might maintain a hawkish stance

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets is expected to open with continued GBP weakness, sustained USD strength, and further JPY depreciation. The British Pound is likely to remain under pressure, following the negative UK GDP report (-0.1%), reducing expectations for Bank of England rate hikes and weighing on GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay strong, supported by rising inflation expectations (4.9%), reinforcing the likelihood of prolonged Federal Reserve hawkishness. However, concerns over weak U.S. consumer sentiment (57.9) may temper gains and introduce mixed movement across USD pairs.

At the same time, JPY weakness is set to continue, as softening Bank of Japan rate hike expectations keep USD/JPY elevated, while risk-sensitive JPY crosses like AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY may see upward momentum if market sentiment remains stable. AUD and NZD could face pressure,

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to experience heightened volatility today, with market participants closely watching the release of Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m at 2:00 PM GMT. A stronger-than-expected retail sales report could reinforce expectations of economic resilience and sustained consumer spending, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and driving the DXY higher. Conversely, weaker-than-expected retail data may signal a slowdown in consumer activity, raising concerns about economic momentum and leading to DXY weakness as rate hike expectations soften.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD) recently surpassed the $3,000 milestone, reaching a high of $3,000+ per ounce before pulling back slightly to around $2,991.86. This surge was driven by increased central bank purchases, a weakening U.S. dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions, including trade tariff disputes and political uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a potential bearish correction, with key support near $2,905, while continued bullish momentum could see resistance at $3,125.

Today, gold’s movement will be influenced by the U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales reports at 2:00 PM GMT. A strong reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar, applying downward pressure on gold, while weaker-than-expected data could reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal and drive prices higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

With no major news events, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is expected to trade within its established technical range. The pair has recently rebounded from the 0.62 handle and is approaching the 0.6350 resistance zone, where selling pressure may emerge.

On the daily timeframe, key technical levels include:

Immediate Support at 0.6250, where buyers may step in to defend the level and attempt another push higher.

Key Resistance at 0.6350, a significant barrier that could cap further gains unless breached, in which case the next target would be the 0.65 handle.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major news events, NZD/USD is expected to trade within its established technical range, primarily driven by broader market sentiment and technical factors. The pair has been consolidating after recent moves, with price action likely to remain contained within key support and resistance levels.

On the daily timeframe, key levels to watch include:

Immediate Support at 0.5685, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside and attempt a rebound.

Key Resistance at 0.6800, a significant level where selling pressure could emerge, limiting upside potential. A breakout above this zone could push NZD/USD toward the 0.6000 handle.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major news events, JPY is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by broader market sentiment. USD/JPY is consolidating near 149.00, reflecting indecision.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 146.84, a critical level that could signal further downside if breached.

Resistance at 149.44, where a breakout could push USD/JPY toward 149.00

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. Dollar movements. EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.0840, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader macro trends.

Key levels on the daily timeframe: 

Support at 1.0674, a key level where buyers may step in to defend against further downside.

Resistance at 1.0984, a crucial barrier that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events, CHF is expected to trade within its technical range, primarily influenced by risk sentiment and U.S. Dollar strength. USD/CHF is consolidating near 0.8850, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 0.8750, where buyers may emerge to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 0.8912, a key barrier that, if broken, could push USD/CHF toward 0.8950.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

GBP is expected to trade within its technical range, influenced by market sentiment and U.S. Dollar strength. GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.2940, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader macro trends.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 1.2780, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level that, if breached, could push GBP/USD toward 1.3251

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major news events, CAD is expected to trade within its technical range, primarily influenced by oil prices and U.S. Dollar movements. USD/CAD is consolidating near 1.4300, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader market conditions.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at 1.4149, where buyers may step in to limit downside movement.

Resistance at 1.4538, a key barrier that, if breached, could push USD/CAD toward 1.4800

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news event, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. WTI is consolidating near $70 per barrel, reflecting indecision as traders assess broader macroeconomic conditions.

Key levels on the daily timeframe:

Support at $65.5.00, where buyers may step in to defend against further downside.

Resistance at $69.56, a key barrier that, if breached, could push WTI toward $72.37

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally into the Weekend – Nasdaq Up 2.6%

US stocks rallied strongly on Friday as investors shrugged off tariff concerns and looked to buy dips, with tech stocks performing particularly well. The Dow gained 1.65%, while the S&P and Nasdaq notched up their best daily performance since 6th November, gaining 2.13% and 2.61%, respectively. The dollar drifted lower, with the DXY losing 0.11% to move down to 103.72, while Treasury yields pushed higher, the 2-year up 6 basis points to 4.017% and the benchmark 10-year adding 4.4 basis points to move back up to 4.312%.

Oil prices jumped again to close out a volatile week near flat, with Brent adding 1% on the day to close at $70.58 and WTI up 0.95% to $67.80 a barrel. Gold hit another record high before ultimately dropping slightly lower on the day, down 0.32% to $2,978.09.

Central Banks in Action This Week

Traders expect a shift in focus this week, with key interest rate announcements from major central banks due over the next few days. Last week’s price action was undoubtedly influenced by geopolitical developments, as tariff tit-for-tat exchanges led to highly volatile conditions. However, this week should see investor attention return to fundamentals, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank all set to make rate announcements.

Despite only the SNB likely to make a move this week, traders anticipate significant volatility around these events as their respective committees update the market on future policy moves, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and data releases.

Data in Focus to Start the Trading Week

Asian markets are set to open the week on the front foot after a strong day on Wall Street on Friday, but attention will soon turn to key economic data as the day progresses. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Chinese markets, with the usual monthly data release expected midway through the session. Investors will closely watch the Industrial Production figures (expected at 5.3%) and Retail Sales numbers (3.8%), while the subsequent press conference could also trigger market movements.

There is little on the calendar in the European session, but the first major US data releases of the week are due shortly after the New York open, including Retail Sales (expected +0.6%), Core Retail Sales (+0.3%), and the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-1.9), all released simultaneously.

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It is a case of ‘from famine to feast’ this week in terms of macroeconomic updates, with key data releases from various jurisdictions and several central bank rate decisions on the calendar.

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank are all set to announce their rate decisions this week. Given the volatility seen in recent weeks, traders anticipate significant market movements around these events. Investors also expect geopolitical developments to continue exerting a strong influence on markets, leading many to predict that the recent rollercoaster conditions will persist in the coming days.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

A relatively quiet start to the week, although some key data releases are scheduled. The focus will be on Chinese markets during the Asian session, with Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures due. There is little of note during the European session, but the first key US data releases of the week—Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index—are expected shortly after the New York open.

Another relatively subdued day, with no major releases scheduled during the Asian session. The London session will see the latest German ZEW Economic Sentiment data, while attention in the US will shift north of the border for Canada’s CPI figures.

Central banks take centre stage on Wednesday, with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve bookending the day with their latest rate decisions. As always, the Bank of Japan does not have a fixed announcement time, though its decision is usually released around Tokyo lunchtime. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve keeps markets waiting until close to the end of the day for its announcement.

A busy day across all sessions, with key updates throughout. The Asian session starts with New Zealand’s latest GDP figures, followed by Australian employment data. Later, Chinese Loan Prime Rate updates are also due. The European session will be eventful, beginning with UK employment data, followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision. The Swiss National Bank is also expected to announce its decision in the morning. In the US session, the usual weekly unemployment claims data will be released alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Later in the day, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak.

A quieter end to the week from a calendar perspective, with little of note scheduled in the first two sessions. However, Canada will be in focus again at the New York open with the release of Retail Sales data. Later in the day, markets will hear from FOMC member John Williams.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 17 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.85%, Shanghai Composite up 1.60%, Hang Seng up 2.08% ASX up 0.50%
• Commodities : Gold at $2998.35 (0.70%), Silver at $34.5 (0.68%), Brent Oil at $70.35 (0.65%), WTI Oil at $67.08 (0.64%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.293, UK 10-year yield at 4.6820, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8535

News & Data:

• (USD) Core PPI m/m -0.1%  to 0,3% expected
• (USD) PPI m/m 0.0%  to 0.3% expected
• (USD) Unemployment Claims  220K  to 226K expected

Markets Update:

Mainland China’s CSI 300 rebounded from Thursday’s losses, climbing 2.4% by late morning in Singapore, led by gains in healthcare, consumer cyclicals, and non-cyclicals. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also surged 2.22%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.39%, reversing earlier losses. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.35%, with the broader Topix index gaining 0.40%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi remained flat, but the smaller Kosdaq advanced 1.82%.

The recovery comes amid escalating trade tensions, with Trump threatening 200% tariffs on European alcoholic products in response to the EU’s 50% tariff on whiskey. “I’m not going to bend at all,” he stated Thursday. Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Lombard Odier, warned that Trump’s policies contribute to market risk. He noted that investors must “filter out the noise” as uncertainties persist. “Market fundamentals remain solid, but volatility calls for diversification,” he advised.

Despite Thursday’s declines, U.S. futures showed signs of recovery on Friday. The S&P 500 had dropped 1.39% to 5,521.52, entering correction territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.96%.

With ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, global markets continue to navigate volatility, assessing potential impacts on trade and growth.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
• 02:00 PM GMT – USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

The post Friday 14th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rebound Amid U.S. Tariff Concerns first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.