DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0951
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0766
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1074
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish breakout toward the 1st support

Pivot: 162.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8401
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8356
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8444
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3046

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2808
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level and rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 192.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 19079
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish breakout at this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8767

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 0.8723
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8816
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level and rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 148.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 147.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 150.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

PPrice is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4361

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4515
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6330

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6274

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6403
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5829

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.2 Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5771

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5883

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with  the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 42,198.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.. 

1st support: 41,416.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,014.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,884.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 22,267.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,476.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,771.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 5,605.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,921.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 84,556.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 78.021.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 89,641.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci porjection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,947.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1,750.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,134.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish contination toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 68.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 65.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 70.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 3052.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3021.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3061.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 20th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. forex session was dominated by the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, which kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% as expected. The dollar initially rallied but retreated after the announcement, influenced by the Fed’s downward adjustment to growth forecasts in their revised Summary of Economic Projections. 

Market participants priced in expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, aligning with the Fed’s updated projections. EUR/USD declined by 0.3% to trade around 1.091, pulling back from a five-month high, while GBP/USD found support around 1.2940. The Fed’s cautious stance on the economy and potential rate cuts later in the year contributed to increased market volatility. U.S. equities initially declined but rallied after the Fed decision

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Asia session is expected to be characterized by cautious trading and potential volatility, influenced by the aftermath of the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. Markets will also continue to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision from the previous U.S. session, which kept rates steady while hinting at potential future cuts, likely impacting USD pairs and overall risk sentiment. The typically thinner liquidity of the Tokyo session may lead to choppy price action or range-bound trading for many currency pairs. Traders are expected to focus on economic releases from countries like Japan and Australia during this session. Activity in the Asia session could set the tone for the rest of the trading day, with possible increased volatility in Asian currency pairs, particularly those involving JPY, AUD, and NZD.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

With the release of U.S. unemployment claims at 12:30 pm GMT, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to experience volatility as traders assess the health of the U.S. labor market. Currently trading near 103.50, the index remains under bearish pressure, holding below key technical levels like the 100-day EMA and 104 resistance.

If unemployment claims come in lower than expected, signaling labor market strength, the DXY could see a short-term rebound toward resistance at 104.10 or higher. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims may reinforce bearish sentiment, pushing the index toward support at 103.20 or potentially testing the psychological level of 102.00.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The economic outlook remains uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) maintains the projection of two rate cuts in 2025 totaling 50 basis points, consistent with the previous quarter’s forecast.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2025 (2.1% vs. 2% in the December projection), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.4%) and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2.0%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be maintained at $35 billion.

• The next meeting is scheduled for 29-30 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU) is expected to experience volatility today as traders await the release of U.S. unemployment claims data at 12:30 pm GMT. Currently trading above $3,000 per ounce, gold remains supported by ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The unemployment claims report will be closely watched for its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations and, consequently, on gold prices. A higher-than-expected number of jobless claims could weaken the dollar and potentially boost gold prices, as it may reduce pressure on the Fed to maintain higher interest rates. Conversely, lower-than-expected claims could lead to a short-term dip in gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)

Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar (AUD) is poised for volatility today following the release of key employment data. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in February, meeting expectations, while the employment change showed a surprising decrease of 52,800 jobs, significantly below the forecast of 30,000 job gains. This unexpected decline has already caused the AUD to weaken, with AUD/USD dropping 0.3% to 0.6341 post-release.

Given these mixed signals, the AUD is likely to face downward pressure in the short term. Traders may interpret the weak employment figures as a sign of economic softening, potentially increasing expectations for future RBA rate cuts. However, the steady unemployment rate could provide some support.

AUD/USD, currently around 0.6330, may test support near 0.6274 if bearish sentiment persists. Resistance is likely around 0.6365, with a break above potentially targeting 0.6405. Market participants should also consider broader factors influencing the AUD, including global risk sentiment and commodity prices.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

with no major economic events scheduled, NZD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by global risk sentiment, U.S. dollar movement, and commodity market trends. The pair remains supported by a weaker USD, but upside momentum may be limited without fresh economic catalysts.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.5770, where buyers may step in to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 0.5830, a key barrier that, if breached, could push NZD/USD toward 0.5900.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to trade with a slight bearish bias today following the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to maintain interest rates at 0.5% yesterday. With no major news events scheduled for today, the JPY’s movements will likely be influenced by the aftermath of the BOJ meeting and broader market sentiment.

The BOJ’s cautious stance, citing heightened global economic uncertainty and potential risks from U.S. trade policies, may continue to weigh on the Yen. USD/JPY is currently trading around 148.1, having briefly surpassed the 150.00 level after the BOJ decision

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major economic events scheduled, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by U.S. dollar movement, global risk sentiment, and bond yield fluctuations. The pair remains supported by ongoing USD weakness, but upside potential may be limited without fresh catalysts.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 1.0766, where buyers may attempt to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 1.0950, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1000.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (8:30 am GMT)

SNB Policy Rate (8:30 am GMT)

SNB Press Conference (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc (CHF) is poised for heightened volatility today as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its monetary policy decision at 8:30 am GMT, followed by a press conference at 9:00 am GMT. Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, which would bring the policy rate down to 0.25% from the current 0.50%. This anticipated move is driven by Switzerland’s low inflation, which has approached the lower end of the SNB’s 0-2% target range.

If the SNB delivers the expected rate cut, the CHF may initially weaken against major currencies. However, the franc’s reaction will largely depend on the SNB’s forward guidance and any comments on potential currency intervention. The recent strength of the euro against the franc, driven by improved eurozone growth prospects, may factor into the SNB’s decision-making process.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Claimant Count Change (7:00 am GMT)

Monetary Policy Summary (12:00 pm GMT)

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (12:00 pm GMT)

Official Bank Rate (12:00 pm GMT)

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound (GBP) is expected to experience significant volatility today due to a series of key economic events. The Bank of England (BOE) is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% during its March meeting at 12:00 pm GMT. 

Earlier in the day, the Claimant Count Change data at 7:00 am GMT may set the tone for GBP trading, with any surprises potentially influencing market sentiment. Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at 12:30 pm GMT will also be critical, as markets look for clarity on the BOE’s outlook amid economic uncertainties.

GBP/USD, currently near 1.30, faces resistance at this psychological level. Hawkish signals could push the pair higher, while dovish commentary may lead to a decline toward support levels around 1.2940.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (4:50 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to trade with moderate volatility today as markets anticipate Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech at 4:50 pm GMT. Following the recent rate cut to 2.75%, the CAD has faced pressure due to trade tensions with the U.S. and concerns about slowing domestic demand. Macklem’s remarks will be closely watched for insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation, growth, and future policy adjustments.

USD/CAD, currently near 1.4325, remains in a bearish correction phase, with support at 1.4240 and resistance at 1.4370. A dovish tone from Macklem could weaken the CAD further, potentially pushing USD/CAD toward 1.4375 or higher. Conversely, any hawkish signals may strengthen the CAD and test lower support levels. Overall, CAD movements today will hinge on Macklem’s commentary and broader market sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news events scheduled today, WTI crude oil delivery is currently trading at $67.53per barrel, up 0.64% from the previous close. The market shows a slight upward trend, with the May 2025 contract trading at $66.93, also up 0.69%. These prices indicate a modest recovery in oil markets, though they remain well below the year’s high of $87.67. The current price levels suggest ongoing concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, balanced against supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally After Fed Holds Rates – Nasdaq Up 1.4%

US stock indices rallied strongly in overnight trading after the Fed kept rates on hold and predicted 50 basis points of cuts before the end of the year. All three major indices pushed higher following the announcement, with the Dow rising 0.92%, the S&P 1.08%, and the Nasdaq jumping 1.41%. US Treasury yields fell as traders priced in the fresh dot plot, with the 2-year yield down 6.8 basis points to 3.972% and the 10-year falling 4 basis points to 4.243%. However, the dollar edged slightly higher against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen. Oil prices rose after the Fed’s announcement, with Brent up 0.5% to $70.91 per barrel and WTI increasing 0.39% to $67.16 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold continued its upward momentum, gaining another 0.49% on the day to reach a new record high, closing at $3,046.64.

Dollar Consolidating at Annual Lows

The dollar has spent the past few trading days consolidating around annual lows, and FX traders are now evaluating its next move. Many were looking to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for a catalyst, but the central bank delivered what was largely expected overnight, with a measured update following its widely anticipated rate hold. The dollar index has found support on multiple occasions in recent days around the 103.20 level, and a break lower could see it challenge support just below 102.00. Much will depend on the euro— which comprises 57% of the basket— and whether it breaks through long-term resistance near 1.1000 or retreats into recent ranges. Whatever unfolds next, most FX traders do not expect the DXY or the euro to remain at current levels for long.

Huge Trading Day Ahead for Markets

It is a significant day for traders, with key data releases and central bank updates spanning all three major trading sessions. The day has already seen New Zealand GDP figures surpass expectations in the Asian session, and focus will soon shift across the Tasman for Australian employment data later this morning, followed swiftly by Chinese Loan Prime Rate updates from the PBOC.

The European session brings a double dose of UK data, with employment figures released early in the session, followed later by the Bank of England’s latest rate decision and associated updates. In between, attention will turn to Switzerland for the Swiss National Bank’s rate decision, where another 25-basis point cut is expected.

The New York session will feature the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims data alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index before the day concludes with a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

The post General Market Analysis – 20/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its interest rate decision later today and is widely expected to keep the Official Bank Rate on hold at 4.50% after cutting rates in February. However, traders anticipate significant market movement around the event, particularly with the release of the Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference. A key focus will be on inflation, especially after January’s data showed a higher-than-expected rise to 3%. Additionally, the MPC—along with the broader market—has been closely monitoring Donald Trump’s tariff plans, and traders will be keen to see how much attention is given to their potential impact.

Cable has seen a strong run this year, climbing nearly nine big figures from a mid-January low below 1.2100 to recently topping out just above 1.3000. It is likely to be trading near these highs ahead of today’s announcement. The biggest impact on the currency will, of course, come if there is a change in interest rates. However, since most of the market firmly expects no change, volatility is more likely to arise from the policy statement and press conference.

If the MPC leans towards inflation concerns—interpreted as a less dovish stance—Cable could break recent highs and challenge 2024’s peak just above 1.3400. Conversely, if the focus shifts more toward global growth risks and a dovish outlook, the pair could retreat into its range, with initial support around 1.2796 and the 200-day moving average.

Key Technical Levels

• Resistance 2: 1.3252 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance
• Resistance 1: 1.3015 – 2025 High
• Support 1: 1.2796 – 200-Day Moving Average
• Support 2: 1.2247 – Long-Term Trendline Support

The post Trade Cable on the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 20/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.07%, Shanghai Composite up 0.09%, Hang Seng up 0.41% ASX down 0.41%
• Commodities : Gold at $3045.35 (0.20%), Silver at $34.75 (-0.28%), Brent Oil at $70.35 (-0.35%), WTI Oil at $66.51 (-0.34%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.300, UK 10-year yield at 4.6480, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8510

News & Data:

• (CAD) CPI m/m 0.3%  to 0,3% expected
• (CAD) Median CPI  y/y 0.2%  to 0.6% expected
• (CAD) Trimmed CPI  y/y 0.2%  to 0.6% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday, reacting to Wall Street’s downturn led by a tech sell-off. Japan remained in focus as the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady at 0.5%, aligning with expectations while assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.23%, while the Topix index gained 0.73%. In South Korea, the Kospi advanced 0.94%, whereas the Kosdaq declined 0.63% in volatile trade. Mainland China’s CSI 300 remained flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched up 0.15%. India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex opened neutral, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.31%.

Meanwhile, gold prices surged to a record high of $3,034.86 as of 12:08 p.m. Singapore time. U.S. futures edged higher as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. However, all three major U.S. benchmarks declined after two consecutive gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 260.32 points (0.62%) to 41,581.31, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.07% to 5,614.66. The Nasdaq Composite saw the steepest decline, shedding 1.71% to settle at 17,504.12.

Tesla, among the worst-hit stocks in the market correction, dropped over 5% after RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target, citing increased EV competition. Palantir and Nvidia shares also declined by nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) fell over 1%, reflecting broader weakness in tech stocks.

Investors continue to monitor market conditions as concerns over interest rates, global economic policies, and sector-specific challenges weigh on sentiment. With the Federal Reserve’s decision looming, volatility remains high, particularly in the technology sector. The focus remains on whether further corrections will unfold or if markets will stabilize in response to upcoming economic data and policy announcements.

Upcoming Events: 

• 06:00 PM GMT – USD Federal Funds Rate
• 06:00 PM GMT – USD FOMC Statement

The post Wednesday 19th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Tech Sell-Off and Fed Uncertainty first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

During the Asian forex trading session, market activity was subdued as traders awaited the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. The Japanese yen remained calm after the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. Asian stocks showed muted performance, reflecting cautious sentiment. The Australian and New Zealand dollars maintained their strength from the previous session, supported by improved risk appetite and optimism over China’s consumption stimulus. USD/JPY traded within a narrow range, with the pair under slight pressure due to overall dollar weakness. Other major currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD saw limited movements as market participants remained focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision later in the day.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European and U.S. sessions are poised to reflect the continued U.S. dollar weakness observed in the Asian session, with EUR and GBP likely maintaining support in a risk-on environment. EUR/USD may extend gains above $1.0881, buoyed by Germany’s fiscal stimulus plans, while consolidating near 1.0840 as traders assess broader macro trends. 

The U.S. session will pivot around the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. Market focus will be on the Fed’s statement and press conference for insights into potential future rate cuts. EUR/USD faces key resistance at 1.0984, with a breach potentially targeting 1.1212. The U.S. dollar is likely to remain under pressure due to economic uncertainty and inconsistent trade policies. 

Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to hold above $3,000, supported by safe-haven demand. Overall, these sessions are anticipated to exhibit cautious trading ahead of the Fed decision, with the potential for increased volatility following the announcement

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is likely to experience heightened volatility today as the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and economic projections. The Fed is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, the market’s focus will be on the updated “dot plot” and the FOMC statement for clues about future rate cuts.

The DXY, currently trading near 103.18, may see significant movement based on the Fed’s communication. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and signals fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated, the DXY could strengthen. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a more dovish outlook or expresses concerns about economic growth, the DXY might weaken

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to experience heightened volatility today as traders await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic projections. Currently trading at $3035.4, gold remains near its recent all-time highs. The metal may see consolidation or slight pullbacks ahead of the Fed announcements, with immediate support around the $3005 area. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact, supported by geopolitical and economic concerns.

The FOMC statement and press conference will be crucial in determining gold’s short-term direction. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance or signals fewer rate cuts than anticipated, gold might face some downward pressure. Conversely, a more dovish outlook could propel gold prices higher, potentially targeting the $3055-$3155 range.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

 With no major economic events scheduled, AUD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by risk sentiment, U.S. dollar movement, and commodity price fluctuations. The pair remains supported by broad USD weakness, but upside momentum may be limited without new fundamental drivers.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.6330, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 0.6405 is a key level that, if breached, could push AUD/USD toward 0.6506.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

GDP q/q ( 9:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to experience increased volatility today as traders await the release of the GDP q/q data at 9:45 pm GMT. Currently trading near a three-month high of 0.5820 against the USD, the NZD maintains a bullish bias. The GDP data will be crucial in determining the short-term direction of the Kiwi. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could propel the NZD/USD pair towards the 0.5835 resistance level, with the potential for further gains if this level is breached. However, if the GDP data disappoints, we might see a pullback towards the support area around 0.5745. Traders should also be mindful of the broader market sentiment and the upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions, which could influence the NZD’s performance in the coming sessions

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BOJ Policy Rate (Tentative )

Monetary Policy Statement  (Tentative )

BOJ Press Conference  (Tentative )

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to experience significant volatility today as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) concludes its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining a cautious approach to monetary tightening. However, the Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference will be closely monitored for any signals about future rate hikes, especially given rising inflation and wage growth in Japan.

If the BoJ adopts a hawkish tone, emphasizing the need for further rate increases due to persistent inflationary pressures, the yen could strengthen sharply. Conversely, a dovish stance or lack of clarity on future policy adjustments may weaken the yen. Currently, USD/JPY is trading near 149.75, with key support at 148.75 and resistance at 151.55

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by dollar weakness, with upside potential as risk appetite stabilizes.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 1.0766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum. A break below this level could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.0700.

Resistance: Resistance stands at 1.0984, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events, USD/CHF is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains in a bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, supported by the Ichimoku cloud.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 0.8747.. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward 0.8611

Resistance: The pair faces resistance at 0.9000, which aligns with the psychological level and the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A breach above this level could push USD/CHF toward 0.9068.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major news events, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains in a bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, supported by recent price action.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 1.2810, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.2682

Resistance: The pair faces resistance at 1.2937, which coincides with recent highs. A breach above this level could push GBP/USD toward the psychological level of 1.3000.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major news events, USD/CAD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and movements in crude oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian dollar. On the H4 timeframe, the pair remains in a consolidation phase.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 1.4240, A break below this level could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.4175.

Resistance: Resistance is located at 1.4514. A breakout above this level could push USD/CAD toward 1.4752

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news events scheduled, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall market sentiment and recent price action. On the H4 timeframe, the pair remains in a bearish trend, having declined from recent highs.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at $66.44, aligning with recent lows. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward $65.50

Resistance: The pair faces resistance at $68.92. A breach above this level could push WTI crude oil toward $71.30

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 19/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 102.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 105.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0951
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0766
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1074
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 162.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could rebound

1st support: 160.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8435
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8356
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8472
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3046

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2810
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 194.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 192.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 197.08
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8921

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 0.8747
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8921
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 150.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 148.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

PPrice is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4361

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4240
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4515
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6330

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6253

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6403
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5829

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.2 Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5771

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5883

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with  the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot:  42,007.78

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 40,656.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,014.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,884.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 22,267.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,476.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,771.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 5,605.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,921.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Pricecould potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 85,416.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 78.021.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 90,136.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and it could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,046.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance tha taligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify..

1st support: 1,750.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,265.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish contination toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 68.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 65.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 3033.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2958.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3080.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 200% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 19th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Canada released its inflation data, revealing a significant surge across all measures. The CPI m/m jumped to 1.1%, far exceeding the forecast of 0.6% and previous 0.1%. Median CPI y/y rose to 2.9%, surpassing both the forecast and previous reading of 2.7%. Similarly, Trimmed CPI y/y increased to 2.9% from 2.7%. This unexpected spike in inflation, primarily driven by the end of a sales tax break and broad-based price increases, pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.6% in February, an eight-month high. The sharp rise in core inflation measures complicates the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook, likely putting potential interest rate cuts on hold. In response, the Canadian dollar appreciated, and yields on two-year government bonds increased, reflecting market expectations of a potential pause in the interest rate reduction cycle.

The U.S. dollar’s recent weakness due to economic slowdown concerns is likely to influence the DXY more than Canada’s inflation data. Although the Canadian figures may cause short-term fluctuations in USD/CAD, their impact on the DXY is expected to be limited, with the Fed’s decision remaining the primary driver for the index’s near-term direction.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The higher-than-expected Canadian inflation data is likely to have a limited direct impact on the Asian session, but it may contribute to overall market sentiment. Asian traders may pay closer attention to upcoming inflation releases, such as Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI, and reassess expectations for regional central bank policies. The Canadian dollar’s initial strength could indirectly influence other commodity-linked currencies in Asia, like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. This unexpected inflation spike may contribute to a cautious mood in Asian markets, affecting equity performance and safe-haven flows. Overall, while not a primary driver, the Canadian inflation data adds to the complex global economic picture that Asian markets will need to navigate in the coming sessions.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is likely to experience heightened volatility today as the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and economic projections. The Fed is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, the market’s focus will be on the updated “dot plot” and the FOMC statement for clues about future rate cuts.

The DXY, currently trading near 103.18, may see significant movement based on the Fed’s communication. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and signals fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated, the DXY could strengthen. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a more dovish outlook or expresses concerns about economic growth, the DXY might weaken

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to experience heightened volatility today as traders await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic projections. Currently trading at $3035.4, gold remains near its recent all-time highs. The metal may see consolidation or slight pullbacks ahead of the Fed announcements, with immediate support around the $3005 area. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact, supported by geopolitical and economic concerns.

The FOMC statement and press conference will be crucial in determining gold’s short-term direction. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance or signals fewer rate cuts than anticipated, gold might face some downward pressure. Conversely, a more dovish outlook could propel gold prices higher, potentially targeting the $3055-$3155 range.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

 With no major economic events scheduled, AUD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by risk sentiment, U.S. dollar movement, and commodity price fluctuations. The pair remains supported by broad USD weakness, but upside momentum may be limited without new fundamental drivers.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.6330, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 0.6405 is a key level that, if breached, could push AUD/USD toward 0.6506.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

GDP q/q ( 9:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to experience increased volatility today as traders await the release of the GDP q/q data at 9:45 pm GMT. Currently trading near a three-month high of 0.5820 against the USD, the NZD maintains a bullish bias. The GDP data will be crucial in determining the short-term direction of the Kiwi. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could propel the NZD/USD pair towards the 0.5835 resistance level, with the potential for further gains if this level is breached. However, if the GDP data disappoints, we might see a pullback towards the support area around 0.5745. Traders should also be mindful of the broader market sentiment and the upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions, which could influence the NZD’s performance in the coming sessions

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BOJ Policy Rate (Tentative )

Monetary Policy Statement  (Tentative )

BOJ Press Conference  (Tentative )

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to experience significant volatility today as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) concludes its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining a cautious approach to monetary tightening. However, the Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference will be closely monitored for any signals about future rate hikes, especially given rising inflation and wage growth in Japan.

If the BoJ adopts a hawkish tone, emphasizing the need for further rate increases due to persistent inflationary pressures, the yen could strengthen sharply. Conversely, a dovish stance or lack of clarity on future policy adjustments may weaken the yen. Currently, USD/JPY is trading near 149.75, with key support at 148.75 and resistance at 151.55

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by dollar weakness, with upside potential as risk appetite stabilizes.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 1.0766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum. A break below this level could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.0700.

Resistance: Resistance stands at 1.0984, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events, USD/CHF is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains in a bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, supported by the Ichimoku cloud.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 0.8747.. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward 0.8611

Resistance: The pair faces resistance at 0.9000, which aligns with the psychological level and the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A breach above this level could push USD/CHF toward 0.9068.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major news events, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains in a bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, supported by recent price action.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 1.2810, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.2682

Resistance: The pair faces resistance at 1.2937, which coincides with recent highs. A breach above this level could push GBP/USD toward the psychological level of 1.3000.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major news events, USD/CAD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and movements in crude oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian dollar. On the H4 timeframe, the pair remains in a consolidation phase.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at 1.4240, A break below this level could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.4175.

Resistance: Resistance is located at 1.4514. A breakout above this level could push USD/CAD toward 1.4752

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news events scheduled, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall market sentiment and recent price action. On the H4 timeframe, the pair remains in a bearish trend, having declined from recent highs.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support: Immediate support lies at $66.44, aligning with recent lows. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward $65.50

Resistance: The pair faces resistance at $68.92. A breach above this level could push WTI crude oil toward $71.30

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.43%, Shanghai Composite up 0.09%, Hang Seng up 1.88% ASX up 0.06%
• Commodities : Gold at $3023.35 (0.20%), Silver at $34.25 (-0.68%), Brent Oil at $71.15 (0.65%), WTI Oil at $67.51 (0.74%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.286, UK 10-year yield at 4.6420, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8020

News & Data:

• (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3%  to 0,3% expected
• (USD) Retail Sales m/m 0.2%  to 0.6% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Tuesday, following gains on Wall Street after U.S. retail sales data helped ease recession concerns. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led the region, climbing 1.93%, driven by a strong rally in tech stocks like Baidu, which surged 9.83%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 also rebounded, edging up 0.15% after previous session losses.

Investors are closely watching Japan as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) begins its two-day monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5% when the meeting concludes on Wednesday. This coincides with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting, where rates are also expected to remain unchanged. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.43%, while the Topix index rose 1.41%. South Korea’s Kospi increased 0.17%, with the small-cap Kosdaq adding 0.11%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded flat after early gains. In India, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex climbed 0.45% and 0.43%, respectively.

Meanwhile, U.S. futures dipped despite a rebound in major indexes. The S&P 500 rose 0.64% to close at 5,675.12, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31% to 17,808.66, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.85%, adding 353.44 points to end at 41,841.63.

The Dow’s rise was supported by gains in Walmart and IBM. All three major U.S. indices posted consecutive daily gains, bouncing back from a four-week slump driven by declining consumer confidence and trade policy uncertainty.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Median CPI  y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Trimmed CPI  y/y

The post Tuesday 18th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rally as Wall Street Gains Ease Recession Fears first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asian forex session was characterized by positive sentiment and notable movements in several key currencies. The New Zealand dollar reached a three-month peak of $0.5827, while the Australian dollar approached a one-month high just below $0.64. 

The Japanese yen weakened against major currencies, reflecting a risk-on mood in the markets. Meanwhile, gold prices continued their upward trajectory, reaching a record high of $3,005 per ounce during the Asian morning session, indicating ongoing demand for safe-haven assets despite the generally positive market sentiment

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European and U.S. sessions are expected to reflect continued U.S. dollar weakness carried over from the Asian session. The euro may extend gains above $1.0881, supported by positive sentiment and fiscal stimulus plans. GBP/USD is likely to remain range-bound between 1.2880 and 1.3000 unless significant catalysts emerge. The U.S. Retail Sales report will be crucial in determining USD direction, with a weak report potentially accelerating USD losses and strong data triggering a rebound. Gold is expected to maintain its position above $3,000, supported by safe-haven demand. USD/JPY may test support at 147.70 if risk-off sentiment prevails, while the DXY remains vulnerable below 105.00. Overall, markets will remain highly reactive to economic data and shifting risk appetite ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

With no major economic events scheduled, DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and recent weakness following softer U.S. retail sales data. The index is currently consolidating around 103.50, reflecting a cautious market outlook.

Key Levels on the Daily Timeframe:

Support at 103.00, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 104.00, a key barrier that, if breached, could push DXY toward 104.50.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

With no major economic events scheduled, gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The metal remains elevated above $3,000 per ounce, supported by continued safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at $2995, where buyers may defend to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at $3,014, a key level that, if breached, could push gold toward $3,022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

 With no major economic events scheduled, AUD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by improved risk appetite but faces resistance as traders assess broader market conditions.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.6329, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.

Resistance at 0.6400, a key level that, if breached, could push AUD/USD toward 0.6500.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major economic events scheduled, NZD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movement. The pair remains supported by a weaker USD, holding near recent highs as risk appetite improves.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.5766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 0.5885, a key barrier that, if breached, could push NZD/USD toward 0.5900.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major news events, USD/JPY is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains under pressure as a weaker USD and improved risk appetite limit upside momentum.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 146.84, where buyers may attempt to hold the pair above recent lows.

Resistance at 151.32, a key level that, if breached, could push USD/JPY toward 154.00

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by dollar weakness, with upside potential as risk appetite stabilizes.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 1.0766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 1.0984, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major news events,USD/CHF is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily influenced by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains under pressure due to dollar weakness, while safe-haven demand for CHF could limit any upside.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.8772, where buyers may attempt to defend further downside.

Resistance at 0.8866, a key level that, if breached, could push USD/CHF toward 0.8915.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major economic events scheduled, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by overall risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movement. The pair remains supported by broad USD weakness, with potential for further upside if risk appetite remains steady.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 1.2780, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level that, if breached, could push GBP/USD toward 1.3257.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is likely to experience volatility today as Canada releases its Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m data at 12:30 pm GMT. Core Retail Sales m/m is forecasted to rise by 0.4% (up from -0.4%), while Retail Sales m/m is expected to rebound to 0.7% (from -0.9%). These improvements suggest a recovery in consumer spending, which could support CAD strength if the actual data meets or exceeds expectations.

USD/CAD is currently trading around 1.4298, with immediate support near 1.4237 and potential resistance at 1.4515. However, recent trade tensions and the Bank of Canada’s rate cut decision may add uncertainty to CAD’s movement. Strong retail sales data could boost CAD, while weaker-than-expected results may lead to depreciation against major currencies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major economic events scheduled, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily influenced by global risk sentiment, supply-demand dynamics, and U.S. dollar movements. The market remains focused on geopolitical developments and inventory levels, which could drive short-term price action.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at $65.59, where buyers may step in to defend further downside.

Resistance at $68.92, a key barrier that, if breached, could push WTI toward $72.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.