The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to cut its key policy rate by a further 25 basis points later today, and Swiss Franc traders are preparing for currency movements as the market adjusts to the latest update. Some market analysts believe that a larger rate cut would be appropriate, given weak inflation data. However, with the rate already at 1%, the majority feel it would be prudent to preserve additional room for further cuts in 2025.

The expectation is for forward guidance from the bank to remain dovish. Analysts will closely monitor both the statement and updates during the press conference to assess the extent of easing anticipated in 2025, with many speculating that rates could return to zero. USD/CHF is currently positioned in the middle of its recent ranges, but traders expect one of the levels to be tested in the coming days. A more dovish stance than expected would likely lead to a swift test of topside resistance just above 0.8900, whereas a less dovish tone could see the pair drop towards trendline support, currently around 0.8760.

Resistance 2: 0.8957 – November High

Resistance 1: 0.8927 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.8760 – Trendline Support

Support 2: 0.8734 – December Low

The post Trade the USDCHF on the Swiss National Bank Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Tech Rallies After Inflation Numbers – Nasdaq up 1.8%

US Tech Stocks surged higher in trading yesterday with the Nasdaq notching up another record high after inflation data came in on expectations, all but locking in a rate cut from the Fed next week. The Nasdaq powered to a new high, closing up 1.76% on the day, followed by the S&P which added 0.82% whilst the Dow lost ground, falling 0.22% by the close. The greenback continued to push higher, the DXY adding another 0.27% to close at 106.65, following US treasury yields which after an initial post data dip, rallied well, the 2-year finishing up 1 basis point at 4.153% and the benchmark 10-year gaining 4.7 basis points to 4.273%. Oil prices jumped higher after the EU announced further sanctions against Russian oil, Brent gaining 1.87% to $73.54 and WTI rising 2.46% to $70.28. Gold also continued its recent recovery as geopolitical concerns pushed it higher, closing the day up 0.91% at $2,718.19.

FX Traders Prepare for More Rate Cuts

With the exception of the resilient RBA, central banks are embracing interest rate easing cycles with gusto in the current environment and FX traders are preparing for more moves in currencies in the days and weeks ahead. The Bank of Canada has already delivered a 50-point cut this week and today we are expecting 25-points from both the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank with the Federal Reserve highly likely to follow suit next week after last night’s CPI data drop. With these cuts now largely priced in to currency levels, the volatility is likely to come with any change in guidance from the respective central banks in their statements and press conferences – as occurred with the RBA earlier in the week – and traders feel that updates in the next few days could set fresh trends as we move into the new year.

Hectic Trading Day Ahead for Markets

There is a raft of data and central bank calls scheduled in the sessions ahead today which should see volatility remain high. The Asian session kicks off with the focus squarely on Australian markets with the latest employment data due out early in the day, expectation is for 26k new jobs to have been added in November and the unemployment rate to grind up to 4.2%. The European session has major central bank calls from both the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank with cuts expected from both and the New York session see’s more inflation data released in the form of the PPI numbers as well as the weekly unemployment claims data release. All of the above have the propensity to push their respective markets hard and traders are expecting little respite as we progress through the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 12/12/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Trader,

Please find our updated trading schedule for the Christmas, Boxing Day and New Year’s Day  holidays below.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precautions to ensure you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

We will have staff to assist you throughout the holiday period whenever the market is open. Please be aware that deposits and withdrawals will be delayed when there is a bank holiday. Online funding methods such as credit/debit card, PayPal, Neteller, Skrill etc. will still be processed instantly.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your business over the last year. 2024 has been a year of growth and change for IC Trading as we endeavor to bring you the best trading conditions and client experience possible.

We wish for an enjoyable holiday season and a prosperous 2025 for you and your family.

All times mentioned below are Platform time( GMT +2)

MT4

Forex & Crypto:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Energy Futures :

Soft Commodities Futures:

Indices Futures:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

cTrader

Forex & Crypto:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post Holiday Trading Schedule Dec 2024– Jan 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/12/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.13%, Shanghai Composite up 0.11%, Hang Seng down 0.33% ASX down 0.46%
• Commodities : Gold at $2731.35 (0.4%), Silver at $32.4 (-0.58%), Brent Oil at $72.5 (0.46%), WTI Oil at $68.9 (0.49%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.244, UK 10-year yield at 4.3220, Germany 10-year yield at 2.1160

News & Data:

• (USD) Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.2% vs 2.3% expected
• (USD) Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.8% vs 1.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets presented a mixed performance on Wednesday, following declines in major Wall Street benchmarks as investors awaited critical U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

China commenced its annual economic work conference, outlining policies and growth targets for 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.66%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index traded flat. In South Korea, the Kospi gained 0.78%, and the Kosdaq surged 2%. This followed the passage of a downsized 2025 budget of 673.3 trillion won ($470.6 billion), marking the first time a spending bill was reduced without ministry approval. Meanwhile, South Korea’s corruption office announced plans to detain President Yoon Seok Yeol if conditions are met, amid a police investigation into martial law imposition. The nation’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.7% in November.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 0.132%, and the Topix was nearly flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined for a fourth consecutive day, losing 154.10 points (0.35%) to close at 44,247.83. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.3% and 0.25%, respectively, marking two consecutive days of losses.

Investors are closely watching the November consumer price index report due Wednesday, with forecasts predicting a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7%, slightly above October’s figure and exceeding the Fed’s 2% target. The data could shape decisions during the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 17–18 policy meeting.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Core CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD CPI y/y
• 02:45 PM GMT – CAD Overnight Rate
• 03:30 PM GMT – CAD BOC Press Conference

The post Wednesday 11th December 2024: Mixed Asia-Pacific Markets as Investors Await Key U.S. Inflation Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2024

What happened in the Asia session?

With no major news events taking place during this session, the dollar index (DXY) retreated towards 106.25 while spot prices for gold climbed towards $2,700/oz by Asia midday. A combination of additional stimulus measures from China, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a possible tighter supply in Europe kept crude oil prices elevated. WTI oil rose above $69 per barrel for the first time this week and this benchmark could continue to edge higher, especially if the EIA crude oil inventories experience a larger-than-anticipated drawdown later today.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Headline inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range of 1 to 3% for the third consecutive month in October while the Canadian economy experienced a slower rate of expansion in the third quarter of this year. The current macroeconomic conditions pave the way for this central bank to move ahead with a fifth successive reduction in the overnight rate, with a market forecast of a 50-basis point cut. Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will commence 45 minutes after the statement is released and is likely to inject further volatility for the Loonie during the U.S. trading hours.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.S. has accelerated over the last couple of months and the latest forecasts for November point to another month of higher prices. Should CPI come in hot once more, demand for the dollar is likely to surge and potentially keep the DXY elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50% to 4.75% on 7th November.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• The next meeting runs from 17 to 18 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.S. has accelerated over the last couple of months and the latest forecasts for November point to another month of higher prices. Should CPI come in hot once more, demand for the dollar is likely to surge and potentially cause gold prices to pull back strongly during the U.S. trading hours.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will be speaking at the Australian Annual Dinner in Sydney where audience questions are expected. Following yesterday’s ‘dovish’ statement from the final board meeting of this year, traders will be looking to see if Deputy Governor Hauser will drop any further hints for a potential rate cut in February next year. The Aussie fell more than 1% on Tuesday losing nearly 75 pips and was floating around 0.6370 this morning.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10th December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wages growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi plunged 1.3% on Tuesday as it shed 75 pips in the process. This currency pair was hovering around 0.5790 at the beginning of the Asia session but overhead pressures remain firmly in place – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5770

Resistance: 0.5830

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to further ease monetary policy restraint.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Robust demand for the dollar caused USD/JPY to surge past the 152-level on Tuesday to hit an overnight high of 152.17. This currency pair dipped under this level as Asian markets came online but strong tailwinds remain intact- these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 150.90

Resistance: 152.30

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31st October, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• While the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2025 is somewhat lower due to factors such as the recent decline in crude oil and other resource prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro fell for the third consecutive trading day as it hit an overnight low of 1.0498 on Tuesday before climbing above 1.0500 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday. Overhead pressures remain and this currency pair could resume the downtrend as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.0480

Resistance: 1.0610

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
• The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• The next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Strong demand for the greenback continued to lift USD/CHF as it rose above 0.8800 on Tuesday. This currency pair continued its ascent at the beginning of the Asia session on Wednesday, rising towards 0.8850 – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8770

Resistance: 0.8880

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
• Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
• The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
• However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Despite a strong dollar, the pound remains resilient as Cable rose above 1.2750 on Tuesday. This currency pair edged higher towards 1.2800 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2715

Resistance: 1.2865

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7th November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
• CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
• The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
• GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
• The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
• Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
• Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Monetary Policy Statement (2:45 pm GMT)

BoC Press Conference (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Headline inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range of 1 to 3% for the third consecutive month in October while the Canadian economy experienced a slower rate of expansion in the third quarter of this year. The current macroeconomic conditions pave the way for this central bank to move ahead with a fifth successive reduction in the overnight rate, with a market forecast of a 50-basis point cut. Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will commence 45 minutes after the statement is released and is likely to inject further volatility for the Loonie later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd October; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
• The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
• The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
• With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
• If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIAI Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the combination of additional stimulus measures from China and a possible tighter supply in Europe acted as strong tailwinds. WTI oil hit an overnight high of $69.06 per barrel before dipping under $69 as Asian markets came online. Moving over to U.S. storage levels, the EIA inventories are expected to see a decline of 1M barrels of crude following a drawdown of 5.1M in the previous week. Should inventories fall more than originally anticipated, oil prices could receive another boost later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 106.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 105.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 107.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0530

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0430

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 1.0711
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong level of resistance.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 159.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying pressures could intensify.

1st support: 157.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 160.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.8268
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8229

Supporting reasons: Aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.8310
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the ascending trendline, indicating bullish momentum in the market.

Pivot: 1.2718

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2613

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 1.2833
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong level of resistance.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 193.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 192.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 195.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8855

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8796
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.8917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 151.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to the 50%% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a strong level of resistance area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 150.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 153.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4178

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating an area where selling pressures have intensified. The presence of a bearish RSI divergence adds further strength to the bearish movement.

1st support: 1.4089
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 1.4231
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6372

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 0.6348
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a key support area where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.6407
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5796

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 0.5786
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a key support area where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.5836
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 44,082.42

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. a 50% retracement and a 61.8% projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 43,819.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. a 61.8% retracement and a 78.6% projection, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 44,527.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 20,399.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures have intensified.

1st support: 19,688.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 20,900.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,026.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,968.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 6,099.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,093.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 91,732.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 102,934.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,487.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3,288.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 3,762.50
Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 69.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci i.e. a 78.6% retracement and a 100% projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support:  68.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 71.49
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 2712.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2665.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 2758.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 11th December 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Canadian dollar traders are expecting significant volatility in the pair today once the New York session opens, with both key U.S. inflation data and the latest rate decision from the Bank of Canada due out. Any notable deviation from the expected 0.3% month-on-month increase in the U.S. data could drive substantial movement on the dollar side of the equation. Additionally, most traders anticipate market reactions to the Bank of Canada’s decision, regardless of the outcome.

The Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates by a further 0.5% later today, bringing the key rate down to 3.25%. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.8% over the past month—its highest level since January 2017—which many market participants believe justifies the larger rate cut. However, some still consider a smaller 25-basis-point cut a possibility, which could lead to some strength in the Canadian dollar (commonly referred to as the “loonie”).

USDCAD is currently sitting just below the multi-year highs reached in recent days. Some traders are looking for a “perfect storm” scenario, with a strong U.S. inflation number combined with a 50-basis-point cut from the Bank of Canada, to push the pair to fresh highs. Conversely, if these expectations are not met, the pair could retreat into recent ranges. What seems certain, however, is that the coming sessions will see strong market movements.

Resistance Levels:

• Resistance 2: 1.4667 – 2020 High
• Resistance 1: 1.4195 – 2024 High and Trendline Resistance

Support Levels:

• Support 1: 1.3998 – Trendline Support
• Support 2: 1.3710 – 200-Day Moving Average

The post Trade USDCAD on the Bank of Canada Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

The NFIB Small Business Index jumped from 93.7 in the previous month to 101.7 in November 2024 as optimism among small business owners surged following the U.S. presidential elections as owners anticipate tax and regulation policies that favour strong economic growth. Not only was this the highest reading since June 2021, but it also surpassed market forecasts of 94.2 by a wide margin. It is also the first time in 34 months that the reading is above the 50-year average of 98. The dollar index (DXY) rose strongly from 106.30 to hit an overnight high of 106.63 before pulling back towards 106.40 by the end of this session.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will be speaking at the Australian Annual Dinner in Sydney where audience questions are expected. Following yesterday’s ‘dovish’ statement from the final board meeting of this year, traders will be looking to see if Deputy Governor Hauser will drop any further hints for a potential rate cut in February next year. The Aussie fell more than 1% on Tuesday losing nearly 75 pips and was floating around 0.6370 this morning.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.S.  has accelerated over the last couple of months and the latest forecasts for November point to another month of higher prices. Should CPI come in hot once more, demand for the dollar is likely to surge and potentially keep the DXY elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50% to 4.75% on 7th November.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• The next meeting runs from 17 to 18 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.S. has accelerated over the last couple of months and the latest forecasts for November point to another month of higher prices. Should CPI come in hot once more, demand for the dollar is likely to surge and potentially cause gold prices to pull back strongly during the U.S. trading hours.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will be speaking at the Australian Annual Dinner in Sydney where audience questions are expected. Following yesterday’s ‘dovish’ statement from the final board meeting of this year, traders will be looking to see if Deputy Governor Hauser will drop any further hints for a potential rate cut in February next year. The Aussie fell more than 1% on Tuesday losing nearly 75 pips and was floating around 0.6370 this morning.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10th December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wages growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi plunged 1.3% on Tuesday as it shed 75 pips in the process. This currency pair was hovering around 0.5790 at the beginning of the Asia session but overhead pressures remain firmly in place – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5770

Resistance: 0.5830

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to further ease monetary policy restraint.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Robust demand for the dollar caused USD/JPY to surge past the 152-level on Tuesday to hit an overnight high of 152.17. This currency pair dipped under this level as Asian markets came online but strong tailwinds remain intact- these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 150.90

Resistance: 152.30

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31st October, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• While the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2025 is somewhat lower due to factors such as the recent decline in crude oil and other resource prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro fell for the third consecutive trading day as it hit an overnight low of 1.0498 on Tuesday before climbing above 1.0500 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday. Overhead pressures remain and this currency pair could resume the downtrend as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.0480

Resistance: 1.0610

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
• The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• The next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Strong demand for the greenback continued to lift USD/CHF as it rose above 0.8800 on Tuesday. This currency pair continued its ascent at the beginning of the Asia session on Wednesday, rising towards 0.8850 – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8770

Resistance: 0.8880

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
• Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
• The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
• However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Despite a strong dollar, the pound remains resilient as Cable rose above 1.2750 on Tuesday. This currency pair edged higher towards 1.2800 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2715

Resistance: 1.2865

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7th November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
• CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
• The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
• GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
• The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
• Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
• Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Monetary Policy Statement (2:45 pm GMT)

BoC Press Conference (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Headline inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range of 1 to 3% for the third consecutive month in October while the Canadian economy experienced a slower rate of expansion in the third quarter of this year. The current macroeconomic conditions pave the way for this central bank to move ahead with a fifth successive reduction in the overnight rate, with a market forecast of a 50-basis point cut. Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will commence 45 minutes after the statement is released and is likely to inject further volatility for the Loonie later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd October; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
• The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
• The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
• With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
• If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIAI Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the combination of additional stimulus measures from China and a possible tighter supply in Europe acted as strong tailwinds. WTI oil hit an overnight high of $69.06 per barrel before dipping under $69 as Asian markets came online. Moving over to U.S. storage levels, the EIA inventories are expected to see a decline of 1M barrels of crude following a drawdown of 5.1M in the previous week. Should inventories fall more than originally anticipated, oil prices could receive another boost later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Markets Drift Ahead of Inflation Data – Dow Down 0.35%

US stock indices edged lower in trading yesterday as investors awaited today’s key inflation data release. The Dow led the decline, falling 0.35%, followed by the S&P, which lost 0.3%, and the Nasdaq, which dropped 0.25%. The dollar strengthened once more, with the DXY rising 0.2% to 106.40, alongside treasury yields, which also moved higher. The 2-year yield gained 1.6 basis points to reach 4.141%, while the 10-year yield rose 2.3 basis points to 4.224%. Oil prices continued to trade within recent ranges, with Brent slipping 0.12% to $72.05 and WTI rising 0.13% to $68.45. Gold experienced a significant gain, climbing 1.28% to $2,692.83 as traders priced in rising geopolitical concerns.

Another Rate Cut for Canada Expected Today

The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by a further 0.5% later today, bringing the key rate down to 3.25%. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.8% over the past month, its highest level since January 2017, and most market participants believe this justifies the larger cut. This marks the fifth rate reduction since June, and with inflation hovering around the 2% level, traders anticipate more cuts ahead. The Canadian dollar has been under pressure against the US dollar in recent months, with USD/CAD currently trading near annual highs. Should the expected 50-basis-point cut materialise, particularly if coupled with a strong inflation data print from the US, further upward moves in the pair are likely.

Markets Expected to Liven Up Later Today

The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet during the first two sessions of the day. However, traders expect volatility to increase significantly once the New York session begins. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor is scheduled to speak during the Asian session, but otherwise, the schedule is sparse. The same is true for the European session. The key US CPI data is due early in the New York session, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase in both the headline and core figures. Later in the day, attention will shift to Ottawa for the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision, where another 50-basis-point cut is anticipated.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/12/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the South Africa Day of Reconciliation on Monday, 16 December, 2024.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post South Africa Day of Reconciliation Trading Schedule 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 11/12/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.