The post Ex-Dividend 24/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.24%, Shanghai Composite up 0.73%, Hang Seng up 3.13% ASX down 0.32%
• Commodities : Gold at $2940.35 (-0.53%), Silver at $33.35 (-0.8%), Brent Oil at $76.8 (-0.2%), WTI Oil at $72.8 (-0.3%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.486, UK 10-year yield at 4.6085, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5335

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims 219K  to 215K expected

Markets Update:

Hong Kong shares reached a three-year high on Friday, leading regional gains as investors assessed Japan’s inflation data alongside U.S. tariff concerns. The Hang Seng Index surged 2.95%, its highest since February 2022, while the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 4.67%. Alibaba shares jumped 11% after reporting strong December quarter profits, driven by growth in its Cloud Intelligence and e-commerce divisions. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 gained 0.4%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.43%, and the Topix slipped 0.33%. The country’s inflation rate rose to 4% in January, marking its highest level since early 2023. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food prices, climbed to 3.2%, exceeding Reuters’ forecast of 3.1%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.42%, while the small-cap Kosdaq inched up 0.43%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.59%.

Investors are closely monitoring the Japanese yen, which strengthened to a two-month high of 150.52 per U.S. dollar on Thursday amid expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The currency is now trading at 150.22 per dollar, reflecting continued market uncertainty.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks pulled back after the S&P 500 hit record highs for two straight days. Investors sold off shares following a weak forecast from Walmart, raising concerns about the economic outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 450.94 points (-1.01%) to 44,176.65, while the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,117.52, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.47% to 19,962.36.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Retail Sales m/m
• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Services PMI

The post Friday 21st February 2025: Asian Markets Rally as Hong Kong Hits Three-Year High; U.S. Stocks Retreat first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The flash Composite PMI report for Australia showed the private sector expanding at the fastest pace since August 2024, driven mainly by accelerating services activity growth. Although overall new business also rose at a quicker rate, export orders remained in contraction. The better-than-expected PMI result should continue to keep the Aussie elevated on Friday – this currency pair was floating around 0.6400 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Consumer spending in the U.K. has been poor for most parts of 2024 as sales declined in four out of the last seven months, even in December despite stronger Christmas sales. Consumer spending fell 0.3% MoM in December but it is now expected to rebound 0.4% in January. Combined with the flash Composite PMI report that is expected to show expansion, albeit at a slower pace, the pound could be supported should the above macroeconomic data exceed market expectations.

After contracting in October and December, Composite PMI activity in the Euro Area rebounded into expansion in January with a reading of 50.2. PMI activity is now expected to mark a second consecutive month of expansion with a reading of 50.5 in February, based on the flash estimates. Should PMI activity come in stronger than anticipated, the Euro could receive a strong tailwind during the European trading hours.

Consumer spending in Canada has been steady in the second half of 2024 and it surged in December due to the traditional holiday shopping season. Sales jumped 1.6% MoM to mark the biggest gains since May 2022, based on preliminary estimates. The final estimate points to a slightly lower figure of 1.5% but it would still register a huge monthly gain for retail sales. The Loonie could receive a near-term boost later today, a result that would weigh on USD/CAD.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (2:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The flash Composite PMI report for the U.S. is expected to show another successive month of expansion driven primarily by the services sector. However, demand for the dollar has waned significantly as the backdrop of ongoing trade tariffs and potential de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war continue to overshadow key macroeconomic data for now. The DXY is likely to remain under pressure on the final trading day as it is all but certain to notch a third consecutive week of decline.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The backdrop of ongoing trade tariffs, economic reforms in the U.S. and global geo-political tensions have kept demand for this precious metal elevated. Spot prices for gold recorded its latest high on Thursday as it eclipsed $2,954.94/oz and it will no doubt mark its eighth successive week of higher gains.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (10:00 pm GMT 20th February)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The flash Composite PMI report for Australia showed the private sector expanding at the fastest pace since August 2024, driven mainly by accelerating services activity growth. Although overall new business also rose at a quicker rate, export orders remained in contraction. The better-than-expected PMI result should continue to keep the Aussie elevated on Friday – this currency pair was floating around 0.6400 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 January, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Despite making a jumbo 50-basis point (bps) reduction in the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday, the Kiwi strengthened as the RBNZ signalled less aggressive rate cuts for 2025. This currency pair has climbed 1.3% since the monetary policy announcement and it remained elevated at around 0.5760 as Asian markets came online on Friday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

PMI activity in Japan expanded at the strongest rate in five months based on the flash estimates for February. The Composite index rose to 51.6, this modest improvement was driven by sustained growth in services activity, while manufacturing output declined at a softer rate. Coupled with speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates sooner rather than later, the yen has strengthened significantly causing USD/JPY to tumble under 150 overnight. Downward pressures remain for this currency pair and it is likely to slide lower as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

After contracting in October and December, Composite PMI activity in the Euro Area rebounded into expansion in January with a reading of 50.2. PMI activity is now expected to mark a second consecutive month of expansion with a reading of 50.5 in February, based on the flash estimates. Should PMI activity come in stronger than anticipated, the Euro could receive a strong tailwind during the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc saw strong inflows on Thursday as USD/CHF fell over 0.6% to hit a low of 0.8975. However, this currency pair stabilized on Friday around this level to rebound and looks set to climb above the threshold of 0.9000 once more.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (7:00 am GMT)

S&P Global Composite PMI (9:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Consumer spending in the U.K. has been poor for most parts of 2024 as sales declined in four out of the last seven months, even in December despite stronger Christmas sales. Consumer spending fell 0.3% MoM in December but it is now expected to rebound 0.4% in January. Combined with the flash Composite PMI report that is expected to show expansion, albeit at a slower pace, the pound could be supported should the above macroeconomic data exceed market expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Consumer spending in Canada has been steady in the second half of 2024 and it surged in December due to the traditional holiday shopping season. Sales jumped 1.6% MoM to mark the biggest gains since May 2022, based on preliminary estimates. The final estimate points to a slightly lower figure of 1.5% but it would still register a huge monthly gain for retail sales. The Loonie could receive a near-term boost later today, a result that would weigh on USD/CAD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Despite the EIA crude oil inventories increasing higher than forecasts for the fourth week in a row as seen in the overnight report, crude oil rose for the third successive day as disruptions to oil supply in Russia and Ukraine as a result of attacks on pipeline infrastructure and production facilities kept prices elevated. WTI oil has climbed almost 3% this week and it looks set to break above the $73 mark on the final trading day of the week.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 106.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 106.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 107.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0455

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 1.0389

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0535
Supporting reasons:  Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 157.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 155.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8272

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 0.8224

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,  indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2516

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.2365

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2721
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 189.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 187.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 192.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8974

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 0.8882
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9058
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 149.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 148.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 151.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4204

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.4099
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4245
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6421

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6377

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6465
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5755

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5693

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5809

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 44,395.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 43,819.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 44,732.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,554.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,927.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,881.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,100.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 6,005.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,190.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,853.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,857.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. a  61.8% retracement and a 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support.

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,855.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 72.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 70.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 73.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,936.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,873.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2,979.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 21st February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Unemployment claims in the U.S. have trended higher over the past four weeks which is typically a sign of labour market weakness. Claims hit 219K in the latest report as it exceeded market forecasts of 215K and the 12-week average of 218K. Overlaid with the ongoing dollar weakness, the dollar index (DXY) tumbled over 0.7% overnight as it hit a low of 106.33. The DXY is likely to remain under pressure on the final trading day as it is all but certain to notch a third consecutive week of decline.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

PMI activity in Japan expanded at the strongest rate in five months based on the flash estimates for February. The Composite index rose to 51.6, this modest improvement was driven by sustained growth in services activity, while manufacturing output declined at a softer rate. Coupled with speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates sooner rather than later, the yen has strengthened significantly causing USD/JPY to tumble under 150 overnight. Downward pressures remain for this currency pair and it is likely to slide lower as the day progresses.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (2:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The flash Composite PMI report for the U.S. is expected to show another successive month of expansion driven primarily by the services sector. However, demand for the dollar has waned significantly as the backdrop of ongoing trade tariffs and potential de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war continue to overshadow key macroeconomic data for now. The DXY is likely to remain under pressure on the final trading day as it is all but certain to notch a third consecutive week of decline.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The backdrop of ongoing trade tariffs, economic reforms in the U.S. and global geo-political tensions have kept demand for this precious metal elevated. Spot prices for gold recorded its latest high on Thursday as it eclipsed $2,954.94/oz and it will no doubt mark its eighth successive week of higher gains.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (10:00 pm GMT 20th February)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The flash Composite PMI report for Australia showed the private sector expanding at the fastest pace since August 2024, driven mainly by accelerating services activity growth. Although overall new business also rose at a quicker rate, export orders remained in contraction. The better-than-expected PMI result should continue to keep the Aussie elevated on Friday – this currency pair was edging higher towards 0.6400 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 January, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Despite making a jumbo 50-basis point (bps) reduction in the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday, the Kiwi strengthened as the RBNZ signalled less aggressive rate cuts for 2025. This currency pair has climbed 1.3% since the monetary policy announcement and it remained elevated at around 0.5760 as Asian markets came online on Friday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

PMI activity in Japan expanded at the strongest rate in five months based on the flash estimates for February. The Composite index rose to 51.6, this modest improvement was driven by sustained growth in services activity, while manufacturing output declined at a softer rate. Coupled with speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates sooner rather than later, the yen has strengthened significantly causing USD/JPY to tumble under 150 overnight. Downward pressures remain for this currency pair and it is likely to slide lower as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

After contracting in October and December, Composite PMI activity in the Euro Area rebounded into expansion in January with a reading of 50.2. PMI activity is now expected to mark a second consecutive month of expansion with a reading of 50.5 in February, based on the flash estimates. Should PMI activity come in stronger than anticipated, the Euro could receive a strong tailwind during the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc saw strong inflows on Thursday as USD/CHF fell over 0.6% to hit a low of 0.8975. However, this currency pair stabilized on Friday around this level to rebound and looks set to climb above the threshold of 0.9000 once more.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (7:00 am GMT)

S&P Global Composite PMI (9:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Consumer spending in the U.K. has been poor for most parts of 2024 as sales declined in four out of the last seven months, even in December despite stronger Christmas sales. Consumer spending fell 0.3% MoM in December but it is now expected to rebound 0.4% in January. Combined with the flash Composite PMI report that is expected to show expansion, albeit at a slower pace, the pound could be supported should the above macroeconomic data exceed market expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Consumer spending in Canada has been steady in the second half of 2024 and it surged in December due to the traditional holiday shopping season. Sales jumped 1.6% MoM to mark the biggest gains since May 2022, based on preliminary estimates. The final estimate points to a slightly lower figure of 1.5% but it would still register a huge monthly gain for retail sales. The Loonie could receive a near-term boost later today, a result that would weigh on USD/CAD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Despite the EIA crude oil inventories increasing higher than forecasts for the fourth week in a row as seen in the overnight report, crude oil rose for the third successive day as disruptions to oil supply in Russia and Ukraine as a result of attacks on pipeline infrastructure and production facilities kept prices elevated. WTI oil has climbed almost 3% this week and it looks set to break above the $73 mark on the final trading day of the week.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Stocks Hit as Trade War Fears Escalate – Dow Down 1%

US stocks fell in trading yesterday as investors continued to assess President Trump’s latest tariff updates and the possibility of a global trade war. The Dow Jones closed down 1.01%, while the tech indices suffered slightly less, with the S&P down 0.43% and the Nasdaq down 0.47%. Treasury yields were quieter, with the 2-year up just 0.3 basis points to 2.270% and the 10-year down 2.7 basis points to 4.505%. The dollar took a significant hit, mainly against the yen, as haven flows into the Japanese currency increased, with the DXY down 0.68% on the day to 107.11. Oil prices moved higher again as supply concerns intensified, with Brent up 0.78% to $76.63 and WTI up 0.53% to $72.48. Haven flows also pushed gold to yet another new high before it fell later in the day, ultimately closing up 0.1% at $2,936.48 an ounce.

Haven Flows Dominate Market Moves

There was greater consistency across the board yesterday, with haven flows dominating market movements as concerns grew that President Trump is focused on initiating a full-scale global trade war. Gold has been a significant mover ever since the ‘red sweep’ that brought Trump to power back in November, but stocks have remained resilient in the face of market uncertainty. However, recent movements in gold and the yen have led traders to question whether we are returning to a classic ‘risk-off’ / ‘risk-on’ trading environment. If this is the case, global stocks could face an extremely turbulent period in the months ahead. Adding to the concerns for equity market participants is the lofty valuation levels at which their assets are trading, which could accelerate the pace of market corrections.

Big Calendar Day Ahead to Close Out the Trading Week

It is a packed calendar for traders today, with key data updates and geopolitical risks spanning all three trading sessions. The Asian session includes key updates from the RBA’s Michele Bullock and President Trump before data releases ramp up later in the day. Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI data will be released across multiple markets, including France, Germany, the UK, the EU, and the US. Additionally, retail sales updates from the UK and Canada will be published during their respective sessions. The calendar concludes later in the day with US existing home sales figures and revised updates for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data.

The post General Market Analysis – 21/02/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 21/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.34%, Shanghai Composite down 0.05%, Hang Seng down 1.03% ASX down 1.16%
• Commodities : Gold at $2962.35 (0.83%), Silver at $33.35 (0.8%), Brent Oil at $75.8 (-0.2%), WTI Oil at $71.8 (-0.3%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.515, UK 10-year yield at 4.6100, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5490

News & Data:

• (USD) Building Permits 1.48M  to 1.46M expected
• (USD) Housing Starts  1.37M to 1.39M expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on autos, chips, and pharmaceutical imports. Concerns also grew over the Federal Reserve potentially keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period. Trump stated that the tariffs could take effect as early as April 2 but did not clarify whether they would target specific countries or be broadly applied.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 opened 0.37% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 1.13%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 declined 1.19%, and the broader Topix index lost 1.06%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.53%, with the small-cap Kosdaq slipping 0.17%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.39%, marking its fourth consecutive losing session. The country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in January, aligning with Reuters’ estimates.

Despite these concerns, U.S. markets continued their upward trend. The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes revealed worries about Trump’s tariff plans but emphasized the need for further inflation declines before considering rate cuts. Investors remained optimistic, driving stock indices higher.

The S&P 500 rose 0.24%, closing at a record 6,144.15 after hitting an all-time high during the session. The Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.07% to 20,056.25, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 71.25 points, or 0.16%, to settle at 44,627.59.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD IPPI m/m
• 07:00 PM GMT – CAD NHPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD RMPI m/m

The post Thursday 20th February 2025: Markets Drop on Tariff Concerns, U.S. Stocks Climb first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

During the Asia session, forex markets saw JPY strengthen to 150.62 on BoJ rate hike speculation and U.S. tariff concerns, while AUD rose to 0.6350 after strong employment data despite higher unemployment. Overall, the session was marked by cautious trading, with geopolitical tensions and central bank policies driving currency movement

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asia session, forex markets reflect cautious risk sentiment, with JPY strengthening on safe-haven demand and BoJ tightening speculation, while AUD remains stable despite a higher unemployment rate, signaling confidence in Australia’s labor market.

JPY strength may persist, AUD and NZD could stay range-bound, and emerging Asian currencies remain vulnerable to global risk trends. Expect choppy trading, with USD movement and risk sentiment driving market direction

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to remain range-bound to bullish ahead of the Unemployment Claims report (1:30 PM GMT), as traders digest the FOMC minutes and reassess Fed rate expectations. If claims come in stronger than expected (below 210K), DXY could rise, reinforcing a hawkish Fed outlook and testing 107.00 resistance. A weaker-than-expected reading (above 230K) could weaken DXY, increasing rate-cut bets and pushing it towards 106.00 support. If claims are within expectations (210K-230K), DXY may consolidate between 106.50-107.00, awaiting further catalysts. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment could also support the dollar, while weaker yields or strong risk appetite may limit gains

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD), currently around $2,941, is expected to trade range-bound to bullish ahead of the Unemployment Claims report as traders assess its impact on Fed rate expectations and the U.S. dollar (DXY). 

A stronger-than-expected report (below 210K) would signal a tight labor market, reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed policy, boosting the USD and Treasury yields, and potentially pushing gold below $2,925, testing $2,900 support. 

A weaker-than-expected report (above 230K) could fuel rate-cut expectations, weakening the USD and bond yields, driving gold toward $2,960-$2,975 resistance. If claims remain within expectations (210K-230K), gold may range between $2,925-$2,960, tracking DXY movements. 

.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s Employment Change for January 2025 showed a gain of 44,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 19,400 but lower than the previous 60,000 increase. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% from 4.0%, aligning with forecasts, as the participation rate hit a record 67.3%, indicating more individuals entering the labor market. Despite the rise in unemployment, the strong job growth suggests a resilient labor market. 

These figures could limit immediate RBA rate-cut expectations, providing support for AUD, though the higher jobless rate may cap gains, keeping AUD/USD within a range until further economic data clarifies policy direction

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 January, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation;  growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major major news today, the NZD/USD pair is trading at approximately 0.57089, reflecting a modest recovery from its January low of 0.5548. 

Recent movements have been influenced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut the Official Cash Rate to 3.75%, with indications of a more measured pace for future reductions

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major economic news today, USD/JPY will be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, risk sentiment, and BoJ policy expectations. Higher U.S. yields could push USD/JPY toward 151.80-152.00, while a decline may see it test 151.00 support. Risk-off sentiment could strengthen JPY, limiting gains, while BoJ’s dovish stance supports upside. Without key catalysts, USD/JPY is expected to consolidate within 151.00-152.00, reacting to bond yields, DXY movement, and global risk flows.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

EUR/USD is trading at approximately 1.0422. With no major economic news today, the pair is influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and risk sentiment. A stronger USD could push EUR/USD toward 1.0345 support, while a weaker dollar may lift it toward 1.0517 resistance.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major economic news today, USD/CHF will be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and risk sentiment. A stronger USD could push USD/CHF toward 0.9091, while a weaker dollar may see it retest 0.8975 support. Swiss franc’s safe-haven demand could strengthen CHF if risk sentiment deteriorates, while higher U.S. yields would favor USD strength

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major economic news today, GBP/USD will be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and risk sentiment. A stronger USD could push GBP/USD toward 1.2520, while a weaker dollar may lift it toward 1.2721.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major economic news today, USD/CAD will be driven by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and oil prices. A stronger USD could push USD/CAD toward 1.4297 while rising oil prices may support CAD. Risk sentiment and global market flows will also influence movement.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major economic news today, oil prices will be driven by global risk sentiment, USD strength, and supply-demand dynamics. A stronger USD could pressure WTI crude toward $71, while tight supply concerns or improved risk appetite may push it toward $75. OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical tensions remain key factors. Without key catalysts, oil is likely to consolidate within $70-$75

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 February 2025

The minutes from the FOMC meeting minutes on February 19, 2025. During this meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%. This decision reflects the FOMC’s assessment that, while economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions remain stable, inflation is still somewhat elevated. The Committee emphasized its strong commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Additionally, the FOMC is continuing its plan to reduce the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. The minutes also noted that the Committee is conducting a periodic public review of its monetary policy framework to ensure it effectively supports its dual mandate in a changing economy.

the dollar index (DXY) hovering near 107.00. Investors assessed the FOMC’s indication of a continued pause in rate cuts, as officials emphasized the need for more evidence of cooling inflation before considering further adjustments.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The FOMC minutes signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts, supporting USD strength and weighing on Asian equities as capital flows into U.S. assets. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD may face downward pressure, while JPY could gain on safe-haven demand. Gold remains volatile, reacting to shifting risk sentiment, while oil prices may dip if a stronger dollar dampens global demand. Asian markets, especially Japan, could see initial selling pressure, with a focus on USD/JPY movements

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to remain range-bound to bullish ahead of the Unemployment Claims report (1:30 PM GMT), as traders digest the FOMC minutes and reassess Fed rate expectations. If claims come in stronger than expected (below 210K), DXY could rise, reinforcing a hawkish Fed outlook and testing 107.00 resistance. A weaker-than-expected reading (above 230K) could weaken DXY, increasing rate-cut bets and pushing it towards 106.00 support. If claims are within expectations (210K-230K), DXY may consolidate between 106.50-107.00, awaiting further catalysts. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment could also support the dollar, while weaker yields or strong risk appetite may limit gains

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD), currently around $2,941, is expected to trade range-bound to bullish ahead of the Unemployment Claims report as traders assess its impact on Fed rate expectations and the U.S. dollar (DXY). 

A stronger-than-expected report (below 210K) would signal a tight labor market, reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed policy, boosting the USD and Treasury yields, and potentially pushing gold below $2,925, testing $2,900 support. 

A weaker-than-expected report (above 230K) could fuel rate-cut expectations, weakening the USD and bond yields, driving gold toward $2,960-$2,975 resistance. If claims remain within expectations (210K-230K), gold may range between $2,925-$2,960, tracking DXY movements. 

.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s Employment Change for January 2025 showed a gain of 44,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 19,400 but lower than the previous 60,000 increase. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% from 4.0%, aligning with forecasts, as the participation rate hit a record 67.3%, indicating more individuals entering the labor market. Despite the rise in unemployment, the strong job growth suggests a resilient labor market. 

These figures could limit immediate RBA rate-cut expectations, providing support for AUD, though the higher jobless rate may cap gains, keeping AUD/USD within a range until further economic data clarifies policy direction

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 January, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation;  growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no major major news today, the NZD/USD pair is trading at approximately 0.57089, reflecting a modest recovery from its January low of 0.5548. 

Recent movements have been influenced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut the Official Cash Rate to 3.75%, with indications of a more measured pace for future reductions

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

With no major economic news today, USD/JPY will be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, risk sentiment, and BoJ policy expectations. Higher U.S. yields could push USD/JPY toward 151.80-152.00, while a decline may see it test 151.00 support. Risk-off sentiment could strengthen JPY, limiting gains, while BoJ’s dovish stance supports upside. Without key catalysts, USD/JPY is expected to consolidate within 151.00-152.00, reacting to bond yields, DXY movement, and global risk flows.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

EUR/USD is trading at approximately 1.0422. With no major economic news today, the pair is influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and risk sentiment. A stronger USD could push EUR/USD toward 1.0345 support, while a weaker dollar may lift it toward 1.0517 resistance.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major economic news today, USD/CHF will be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and risk sentiment. A stronger USD could push USD/CHF toward 0.9091, while a weaker dollar may see it retest 0.8975 support. Swiss franc’s safe-haven demand could strengthen CHF if risk sentiment deteriorates, while higher U.S. yields would favor USD strength

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

With no major economic news today, GBP/USD will be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and risk sentiment. A stronger USD could push GBP/USD toward 1.2520, while a weaker dollar may lift it toward 1.2721.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major economic news today, USD/CAD will be driven by U.S. Treasury yields, DXY strength, and oil prices. A stronger USD could push USD/CAD toward 1.4297 while rising oil prices may support CAD. Risk sentiment and global market flows will also influence movement.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
• The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
• The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
• CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
• A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major economic news today, oil prices will be driven by global risk sentiment, USD strength, and supply-demand dynamics. A stronger USD could pressure WTI crude toward $71, while tight supply concerns or improved risk appetite may push it toward $75. OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical tensions remain key factors. Without key catalysts, oil is likely to consolidate within $70-$75

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 20/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 107.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 106.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 108.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0390

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 1.0345

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0522
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a multis-wing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 157.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 178.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 155.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8272

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 0.8224

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement,  indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2516

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.2365

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2721
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 189.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 187.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 195.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.9058

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8974
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9098
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 149.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 148.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 151.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance,, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4276

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4138
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4396
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6377

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6306

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6421
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5693

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5665

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5755

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support 

1st support: 44,152.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 44,754.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,927.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,894.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,100.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 6,039.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,190.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,853.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,857.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support 

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,856.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 70.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing lowe support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci projection indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound 

1st support: 68.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. two 161.8% extensions and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 72.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,938.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,873.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2,979.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 20th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.