Articles

• Prior month revised higher to 0.1% from -0.1% last month
• Leading index for January -0.3% versus -0.1% estimate

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Geopolitics is a hot topic with wars and tariff balls in the air.

• Ukraine’s Zelenskiy met with US envoy Kellogg . There was no other comments from that meeting
• Russian Pres. Putin phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince. Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue to cooperate closely within the framework of OPEC+
• Israeli minister for strategic affairs is expected to meet with us envoy Witkoff to begin talks on the second phase of the Gaza hostage and cease-fire deal
• Mexico will broaden lawsuit in the US against arms manufacturers
• US commerce Sec.Lutnick says “tariffs wont cause inflation or recession”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trump:

• Greenland is needed from point of security
  Expects China’s xi to visit
  Looking at 25% tariff for
  lumber and forest products
  Going to resurrect critical mineral
  deal with Ukraine
  We can make a deal with Russia
  Says
  speaking to china on Tiktok
• Would not consider buying a plane from Airbus

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are trading lower to start the new trading day:

• Dow industrial average: 44,488.78 down -138.81 or -0.31%
• S&P index: 6,127.78 down -16.37 or 0.27%
• NASDAQ index: 20,013.86 down -42.39 or -0.21%
• Russell 2000: 2,277.7680 down -4.6898, or 0.21%

Looking at some of the stocks morning:

• Shares of Palantir are down another $8.24 or -7.45% at $103.55.
• Walmart shares are down $6.30 a -6.03% at $97.72 after reporting earnings

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 gained 0.24%, marking a record close for the index. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ posted a modest gain of 0.7%.

In late news, Palantir shares saw a sharp decline of -10.08% after President Trump directed the Pentagon to reduce defense spending by 8%. Despite Palantir’s software being seen as an efficiency investment, the stock, which had surged nearly 100% from its January 13 low to a high of $125.41 yesterday, experienced a typical pullback. As of today, Palantir shares are down an additional -3.36%, currently trading at $108.30.

A snapshot of the premarket levels implied by the futures currently shows:

• Dow industrial average -142 points
• S&P index -15 points or -0.24%
• NASDAQ index -38 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump is on social media exclaiming in all capitals:

• BALANCE BUGET NOW??? LETS GIVE IT A SHOT. LOTS OF MONEY COMIN IN FROM TARIFFS. DO IT! DJT.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EU trade chief is speaking and says:

• EU is seeking currently grounded in talks with US.
• Discussing car industry to quite an extent.
• Tariff reciprocity must work for both sides and EU ready to look at lower industrial tariffsis

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior week initial claims 213K revised to 214K
• Initial jobless claims 219K vs 215K
• 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 215.25 versus 216.25 last week
• Prior week initial jobless claims 1.850M revised to 1.845 million
• Continuing claims 1.869 vs 1.871M estimate
• 4 -week MA continuing claims 1.863M versus 1.870M last week

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.2%
• PPI y/y +5.8% vs +4.1% prior
• Raw materials price index +3.7% m/m vs +1.3% prior
• Raw materials price index +11.8% y/y vs +9.1% prior

The softening Canadian dollar has been a problem for commodity price inflation. Fortunately it’s levelled off in February.

The Bank of Canada has its hands full at the moment. Between this, the HST holiday, a looming election and tariff threats, there is so much noise.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 44.3 (the expectation was for -5.2….The result may have been influenced by the election)
• Manufacturing index for February xx.x vs 20.0 estimate

Details:

• 6 month index 27.8 vs 46.3 last month.
• Capex index 6-month forward 14.0 vs 39.0 last month
• employment 5.3 vs 11.9 last month
• Prices paid 40.5 vs 31.9 last month
• New Orders 21.9 vs 42.9 last month
• Shipments 26.3 versus 41.0 last month.
• Unfilled orders 1.4 versus 24.0 last month
• delivery time 12.4 versus 6.8 last month.
• Inventories -0.4 versus 11.7 last month.
• Average workweek 2.9 versus 20.5 last month.

For 6 month forward:

• New orders 33.1 versus 57.3 last month.
• Shipments 36.5 versus 60.2 last month
• unfilled orders 11.0 versus 14.5 last month.
• Delivery times -1.2 versus 0.5 last month.
• Inventories 16.4 versus 20.2 last month.
• Prices paid 50.6 versus 67.3 last month
• prices received 46.1 versus 53.6 last month
• employment 23.7 versus 40.4 last month
• average workweek 11.6 versus 14.9 last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -0.1%

There is growing worry about the health of the Canadian housing market, particularly in Ontario. Listings are surging despite poor, snowy weather and there haven’t been the sales to match. The condo market is a disaster in Toronto but it’s not clear if the pain will spread beyond that. The spring market will be key.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning from snowy, frozen Canada.

We have a four-pack of economic data releases due at the bottom of the hour:

• Initial jobless claims
• Philly Fed
• Canadian PPI
• Canadian new housing price index

There has been some hand-wringing about pricing numbers in the regional Fed manufacturing surveys but the main release to watch is initial jobless claims, which are expected at 215K from 213K prior. In the Philly Fed, expect tariff worries and front-running of possible costs to be a big skew.

Later we get weekly oil inventories, a 30-year TIPS auction and comments from the Fed’s Goolsbee at 935 pm ET and Musalem at 12:05 pm ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.