Articles

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices are closing lower but it could’ve been worse.

• Dow industrial average fell -450.94 points or -1.01% at 44176.65. However, at session lows, the index was down -677.43 points.
• S&P index fell -26.63 points or -0.43% at 6117.52. At session lows, the index was down -59.56 points.
• NASDAQ index fell -93.89 points or -0.47% at 19962.36. At session lows the index was down to 61.23 points
• Russell 2000-20.71 points or -0.91% at 2261.74. At session lows the index was down -32.34 points.

Shares of Meta fell for the third consecutive day, and is down 6.3% from it’s all time high..

Palantir fell $-5.79 or -5.17% to $106.27. Yesterday, shares tumbled -10.08% after trading to a new all-time high.

Software continued to fall with the IGV tech software ETF falling -1.83% after yesterday’s -1.75% decline.

Costco shares fell $-27.71 or -2.61% in sympathy with Walmart which saw its shares move down $-6.79 or -6.53% after giving less than expectations forwa. G guidance

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Europe needs to step up for their own defense as a NATO partner
• Calls for allies to pay up by June NATO summit
• Zelensky needs to come back to the table on critical minerals
• Trump is obviously very frustrated with Zelensky right now

It sounds like Zelensky has already tried to tone it down.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG highlights the JPY as the best-performing G10 currency in 2025, driven by narrowing yield differentials and stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP growth. They maintain a short EUR/JPY position, targeting 150.

Key Points:

1️⃣ JPY is the Best-Performing G10 Currency in 2025

• JPY has strengthened by 4.8% vs. USD and 4.0% vs. EUR YTD.
• USD/JPY has fallen below 150.00, approaching key support levels.

2️⃣ Yield Differentials Continue to Narrow

• The 10-year UST-JGB spread has tightened by ~50bps, falling to its lowest since before the US election.
• JGB yields surged to 1.45%, more than doubling in the past year, reflecting growing BoJ policy normalization expectations.

3️⃣ Stronger Japanese Growth & Wage Pressures Support BoJ Hikes

• Q4 GDP grew by 2.8% Q/Q, following 1.7% Q3 growth, indicating economic resilience despite BoJ rate hikes.
• BoJ sees sustained wage growth, with full-time base pay rising 3.0%—consistent with the 2% inflation target.
• Upcoming wage negotiations (Shunto) on March 14 will be key for BoJ policy direction.

4️⃣ Staying Short EUR/JPY, Targeting 150

• BoJ’s continued hawkish tilt and yield spread compression should drive further JPY strength vs. EUR.
• MUFG maintains its short EUR/JPY trade, expecting a decline towards 150.

Conclusion:

MUFG remains bearish on EUR/JPY, expecting JPY strength to persist due to tightening yield differentials, solid economic growth, and stronger wage pressures. They maintain a short EUR/JPY position, targeting 150 (spot at 157.00).

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley maintains its broader G10 FX outlook, favoring AUD and JPY as top performers, GBP resilience, and NZD gains trailing AUD. They see CAD and CHF as underperformers due to trade risks and funding flows.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Top Performers: AUD & JPY

• AUD: Gains supported by positive local factors and global risk appetite.
• JPY: Strength driven by lower US yields over time and ongoing BoJ policy normalization.

2️⃣ GBP Resilience Despite Bearish Sentiment

• Elevated carry attractiveness supports GBP, even as sentiment on the UK economy remains weak.

3️⃣ NZD Gains, but Lags AUD

• NZD is set to appreciate, but will underperform AUD due to monetary policy divergence and weaker domestic outlook.

4️⃣ Laggards: CAD & CHF

• CAD: Domestic economic challenges and persistent trade risk premium weigh on the currency.
• CHF: Faces pressure as it becomes the “funding currency of choice” in G10 FX.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley expects AUD and JPY to lead G10 FX performance, GBP to stay resilient, and NZD to appreciate but underperform AUD. CAD and CHF are seen as laggards, pressured by trade risks and funding flows.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is broadly softer today and falling yields have contributed to that.

• Prior was 2.055%
• Bid to cover 2.48 vs 2.61 prior

There hasn’t been much of a market reaction to this but yields have been creeping up from the lows in the last hour or so. That could put a floor under the dollar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

GEOPOLITICS:

• Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says Ukraine is ready for strong and useful agreement with US on investments and security.
• Ukraine offered the fastest and constructive way for this.
• Ukraine is ready for 24/7 work on this

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Israal Palestinian geopolitics, US middle East envoy Witkoff is on wires saying:

• Trump Gaza plan is not an eviction plan for Palestinians.
• Trump plan is about shaking up everyone’s thinking, doing what is best for the Palestinian people
• On Trumps plan, do Palestinians want to live there, or do they want to settle in a better place with better prospects.
• Conversation has changed from just focusing on land, to how we get better life for people.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Crude oil 4.633M vs estimate of 3.144M.
• Gasoline -0.151M vs estimate of -0.006M
• Distillates -2.051M vs -1.634M estimate
• Cushing _1.472M vs a gain of 0.872M last week.

The private data released late yesterday showed:

Crude oil is trading at $72.75 adds up $0.66 or 0.92%

The

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The worst performer is UK’s FTSE 100. The best performer is Spain’s Ibex. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX -93.10 points or -0.42% at 22340.54.
• France’s CAC +12.04 points or 0.15% at 8122.59.
• UK’s FTSE 100 -49.56 points or -0.57% at 8662.98.
• Spain’s Ibex +37.70 points or 0.29% at 12967.09.
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -99.13 points or -0.26% at 38249.02.

As London/European traders had for the exits, the major US indices are lower:

• Dow industrial average -632.92 points or -1.42% at 43994.23. Walmart -6.20%, Goldman Sachs -4.72%, J.P. Morgan -4.21%, American Express -3.13%, and Boeing -2.9% are responsible for most of the declines.
• S&P index after closing at a record level he answers down -53 points or -0.86% at 6091.09.
• NASDAQ index is down -177 points or -0.88% at 19879.
• Russell 2000 is down -29.31 points or -1.30% at 2252.98.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower:

• 2-year 4.257%, -1.7 basis points
• 5 year 4.341%, -2 point basis points.
• 10 year 4.505%, -3.0 basis points
• 30 year 4.742%, -2.1 basis points

At 12 PM, the EI a weekly energy inventory levels will be released with crude stocks expecting a build of 3.144 million. Gasoline stocks are expected to be unchanged while distillates are expected a drawdown of -1.634 million.

At 12:05 PM, St. Louis Fed Musalem is scheduled to speak.

At 2 PM, RB and the governor is to testify before Parliamentary select committee .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major US stock indices are moving lower today. The NASDAQ index and Dow industrial are now down 1%. The S&P index is down -0.84%. The S&P index closed at a record level yesterday. So it is not all bad, but the declines are worth monitoring.

Looking at the hourly chart of the S&P, the last price highs did not run very much. The topside trend line did a decent job of stalling the break to new highs yesterday. Today, the price is looking toward the rising 100 hour MA at 6068.53. A break below that MA today/going forward is a modest negative in the short-term technically. THe 200 hour MA at 6022. 91 would also need to be broken to increase the bearish bias. There have been some dips to the 200 hour MA that did find support buyers (see chart below).

In geopolitics, a press conference with Ukraine between Zelenskiy and Trumps envoys was canceled after their meeting. Yesterday Pres. Trump called Zelenskiy a dictator. Trump has put a price tag for payback at $500B (maybe it is down to $350B from the tweet below). The market is not in love with the tensiion

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -14.2
• EU consumer confidence flesh estimate for February -13.6% versus -14.0 estimate

What is consistent, is the EU consumer confidence is always negative, but at -13.6 is nearer recent highs going back to 1H of 2022

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.