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Results of the sale just after the 1 pm ET deadline.

• Prior was 4.169%
• Bid to cover 2.66 vs 2.56 prior

I thought we might see a 4-handle but the combo of the soft consumer confidence data today and worries about tariffs knocked it through the figure. If we get a tolerable tariff solution and some pickup in economic data, this could be the last sale below 4% in awhile.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Do you like hard data or soft data?

That’s the question facing bond markets today ahead of the sale of 2-year notes at the top of the hour. There are $69 billion up for grabs and they’re rich on recent history at around 4.00% compared to last months’ sale at 4.169%.

Today, there has been a strong bid since the poor consumer confidence data but BMO notes that March is seasonally negative for 2-year sales with only one auction since 2018 stopping through compared to five tails.

“The
April 1st trade policy review is quickly approaching, and investors are
understandably wary of each incoming White House headline that could
potentially reshape the tariffs debate,” BMO writes.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Intel Officials Under Fire Over Leaked Strike Plans – Senators Slam “Utterly Unprofessional” Breach of U.S. Military Deliberations

A national reporter was included in a private Signal group chat discussing the timing of U.S. airstrikes — and officials today struggled to justify it under oath.

What Happened

In a blistering Senate Intelligence Committee session, lawmakers grilled top intelligence leaders over a now-public Signal chat in which senior U.S. officials — including CIA Director Ratcliffe and Director Eklund — privately discussed the timing and risks of imminent U.S. airstrikes in the Middle East.

Stunningly, a national political journalist was reportedly included in that encrypted group chat — giving a member of the media access to real-time internal debate over a live military operation targeting a foreign terrorist organization.

Key Revelations from the Testimony

• Director Eklund claimed not to recall whether the Vice President weighed in on the timing of strikes.

• He also refused to confirm having seen a direct message from the Secretary of Defense warning about the risks of delay, including potential leaks.

• CIA Director Ratcliffe refused to label the incident a mistake, even when pressed repeatedly.

• General Hawk confirmed that such internal timing discussions — especially about sending U.S. aircrews into hostile airspace — would be of “collection priority” for foreign adversaries.

• Senate panel warned that enemy air defense systems could have been pre-positioned using this leaked information.

• A senator concluded bluntly: “This is utterly unprofessional. There has been no apology, no recognition of the gravity of this error.”

Why Markets Should Care

This isn’t just an intelligence scandal — it’s a governance risk event with implications for defense credibility, foreign policy stability, and U.S. geopolitical posture.

🔹 1. Institutional Breakdown May Raise Risk Premiums

• Investor confidence in U.S. governance and strategic discipline is a key pillar of geopolitical stability.

• Evidence of carelessness at the highest levels of intelligence leadership may increase the geopolitical risk premium in equities and raise questions about U.S. deterrence credibility.

🔹 2. Middle East Escalation Risk Still in Play

• Disputes over timing and chain of command in military operations — now publicly aired — signal potential instability in decision-making during future conflict scenarios.

• Traders should remain alert to renewed volatility in oil markets and regional assets, especially if U.S. adversaries exploit perceived lapses.

🔹 3. Defense & Surveillance Tech in Spotlight

• Fallout from this breach may lead to tightened protocols, increased spending on cybersecurity and communication security tools, and possible internal reshuffling.

• Watch defense and secure comms names: PLTR, LMT, RTX, CRWD, PANW

Investor Takeaway

This isn’t about politics — it’s about core security lapses at the top of the intelligence chain. The Signal chat scandal exposes a stunning breakdown in information control during live military planning. With no accountability yet shown, and foreign intelligence services likely watching closely, investors should remain alert to escalating geopolitical tensions, institutional volatility, and possible retaliatory moves by adversaries.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its GBP forecasts across major currency pairs, citing better-than-expected UK growth, fiscal discipline, and limited direct exposure to US tariffs. Sterling has also benefited from political stability, a stronger services sector, and supportive rate differentials. With risks skewed in the UK’s favor compared to the Eurozone and signs of renewed investor appetite for GBP assets, Goldman now expects higher GBP/USD and lower EUR/GBP through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Forecast Revisions: GBP Upgraded Across the Board 🔼

• GBP/USD

  • Old Forecasts: 1.25 (3M), 1.28 (6M), 1.30 (12M)

  • New Forecasts: 1.28 (3M), 1.32 (6M), 1.35 (12M)

• EUR/GBP

  • Old Forecasts: 0.86 (3M), 0.85 (6M), 0.84 (12M)

  • New Forecasts: 0.84 (3M), 0.83 (6M), 0.82 (12M)

2️⃣ Domestic Data and Political Factors Support GBP 📊

• UK services and labor markets are outperforming expectations.

• Government messaging on deficit-neutral defense spending has helped restore investor confidence.

3️⃣ Tariff Exposure Lower Than Eurozone ⚖️

• UK is less exposed to looming US tariffs, reducing downside risks relative to EUR.

• Tariff-driven risk-off flows are less likely to hurt GBP than EUR.

4️⃣ Rate Differential Still Attractive 💷

• BoE expected to cut rates more cautiously than the ECB, supporting UK front-end rates and attracting inflows.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs now expects stronger GBP performance across both USD and EUR pairs, driven by UK macro resilience, limited tariff exposure, and constructive investor sentiment. With GBP/USD revised up to 1.35 and EUR/GBP expected to slide to 0.82 by 12 months, the bank sees sterling as well-positioned for further gains, especially relative to the Euro.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Signal Scandal Rocks U.S. Intel – What Investors Should Watch as Trust in National Security Protocols Wavers

Improper use of encrypted chats by top officials raises concerns over governance risk, internal dysfunction, and policy volatility.

What Happened at the Senate Hearing Now

A heated exchange during the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing revealed that senior Trump-era intelligence officials, including CIA Director Ratcliffe, used Signal (an encrypted messaging app) to discuss highly sensitive U.S. military operations — including recent strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

• Director Gabbard repeatedly refused to confirm or deny her presence in the group chat.

• Senators demanded to see the content of the messages, questioning if they violated protocols on classified information handling.

• Ratcliffe confirmed he participated, but claimed Signal was an authorized platform for coordination, provided formal records were kept.

• Lawmakers warned that if a rank-and-file intelligence officer had acted similarly, they would be “disciplined or dismissed.”

The scandal has triggered an internal review by the National Security Council and raised fresh concerns about the erosion of guardrails in U.S. intelligence oversight.

Why It Matters for Investors

While this might seem like political drama, it points to deep structural issues within U.S. intelligence and defense coordination — and markets are increasingly sensitive to governance risk, institutional credibility, and national security mishandling.

🔹 1. U.S. Equity Volatility – Trust Deficit May Amplify Geopolitical Risk Premium

• Markets may start to price in a mild credibility discount if intelligence breakdowns impact policy coherence or defense posture.

• Political instability and mismanagement of sensitive information can spook defense sector investors and raise the risk premium on U.S. equities during times of conflict.

🔹 2. Defense Stocks – Potential Disruption or Oversight Expansion

• The scandal may prompt increased oversight of defense agencies and contractors, possibly delaying approvals or increasing compliance burdens.

• However, if the review leads to tightened coordination, longer-term defense procurement could rise — a mixed bag for stocks like:

  • Lockheed Martin (LMT)

  • Raytheon (RTX)

  • Northrop Grumman (NOC)

  • Palantir (PLTR)

🔹 3. USD and Macro Sentiment – Short-Term Resilience, but Watch Institutional Trust Narratives

• The dollar typically benefits from risk aversion, but domestic governance concerns could erode that advantage in extreme scenarios.

• The FX market may pay closer attention to policy inconsistency or security lapses, especially as geopolitical risks rise globally.

Watchlist: Stocks, Sectors, and Themes

Investor Takeaway

This scandal is less about classified text messages and more about confidence in U.S. security governance. If unresolved, it could raise policy volatility, dent trust in institutional discipline, and trigger tighter oversight across defense and intelligence-linked sectors. While short-term market impact may be muted, longer-term credibility risks could weigh on equity sentiment, especially during periods of geopolitical stress. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Senate Puts Drug Cartels at Top of Threat List – Key Implications for USD, Security Stocks, and China Trade Tensions

FBI and Senate warn of fentanyl-fueled cartel crisis; investors should watch USD strength, border tech stocks, and China-linked supply chains.

What’s New from the Live US Senate Hearing

In a rare shift, the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee’s annual threat assessment named drug cartels and traffickers as the No. 1 national security threat — ahead of state actors like China, Russia, and Iran.

The assessment focused on the explosion of fentanyl trafficking, rising domestic crime, and Chinese chemical exports fueling the drug trade. FBI Director Patel highlighted a three-week surge of cartel-linked arrests in Arkansas, along with massive narcotics seizures, including fentanyl, meth, and heroin.

Lawmakers pointed to China’s $1.5 trillion chemical industry, noting over 600 Chinese firms are tied to fentanyl precursor exports — and that Beijing is deliberately avoiding enforcement despite having the surveillance tools to do so.

Why Markets Should Care

This isn’t just a crime story — it’s a national security realignment that could trigger new legislation, funding priorities, and trade tensions. Several asset classes and sectors are in play.

🔹 USD Outlook: Short-Term Support from Policy Shift

• Heightened focus on border enforcement and anti-cartel operations could translate into USD strength, especially amid rising risk aversion.

• Hawkish sentiment around crime and China may fuel fiscal expansion or bipartisan funding, adding short-term tailwinds for the dollar.

🔹 Law Enforcement & Border Tech Stocks in Focus

• Expect more funding for surveillance, drones, detection systems, and data platforms.

• Key tickers:

  • Axon (AXON) – body cams, tasers, law enforcement systems

  • Motorola Solutions (MSI) – public safety tech

  • Palantir (PLTR) – intelligence & surveillance data tools

🔹 Healthcare & Rehab: Longer-Term Budget Tailwinds

• Ongoing political focus on opioid and synthetic drug addiction may boost:

  • Addiction treatment firms (e.g. Alkermes)

  • Behavioral health and detox service providers

• Potential impact on healthcare ETFs and mental health innovation stocks

🔹 China Trade Flashpoint: Chemical Precursors

• U.S. lawmakers may push for targeted sanctions or export bans on Chinese chemical firms.

• Raises risk of further deterioration in U.S.-China trade, especially around healthcare and pharmaceutical supply chains.

• FX implication: Watch USD/CNH for volatility as rhetoric escalates.

Tickers, Sectors, and Pairs to Watch

Investor Takeaway

The fentanyl and cartel crisis is now treated as a top-tier national threat, not just a public health issue. Markets should price in possible increases in U.S. law enforcement funding, new legislative scrutiny on Chinese exports, and stronger USD flows tied to domestic security posture. Traders should stay alert to new sanctions, supply chain actions, and FX volatility as the story evolves.Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

A New Axis? Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea Align Further – What Investors Need to Know

Senate intelligence testimony reveals heightened strategic cooperation among key U.S. adversaries, signaling long-term shifts in global risk dynamics.

What’s Happening in Latest Senate Intelligence Committee Hearing

During the latest Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, top U.S. intelligence officials confirmed a deepening strategic partnership between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Each of these regimes is now engaging in more integrated military, financial, and technological cooperation, partially accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.

Key revelations:

• Russia is increasingly reliant on China for defense industry support and on Iran and North Korea for military resupply (including drones, munitions, and technical assistance).

• China and Russia have escalated joint military exercises in the Asia-Pacific, sending strong signals to the U.S. and its allies.

• Iran’s cooperation with Russia now includes financial channels to bypass sanctions and expanded cyber collaboration.

• North Korea continues to push for nuclear recognition while quietly supporting Russia’s war effort.

Why It Matters for Investors

This geopolitical realignment creates new global fault lines that could significantly affect equities, commodities, and currencies.

1. Rising Defense Spending = Tailwinds for Defense Stocks

• Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) may benefit from expanded NATO and U.S. budgets.

• Expect continued bipartisan support for defense appropriations.

2. Pressure on Commodities: Oil, Gold, and Industrial Metals

• Oil (WTI, Brent): Any deepened Iran-Russia or Russia-China energy collaboration (including evasion of sanctions or resource bartering) may create unpredictable oil supply distortions.

• Gold: As geopolitical tensions rise, gold may regain safe-haven status, particularly if the U.S. dollar softens.

• Critical minerals (e.g., gallium, germanium): China’s export restrictions signal a willingness to use commodity weaponization, affecting semiconductor and defense tech supply chains.

3. FX: U.S. Dollar vs. Yuan, Ruble, and Risk-Off Flows

• Risk of longer-term de-dollarization efforts among these nations.

• Investors may see defensive flows into USD in the short term during escalations, but longer term, dedollarization themes may attract FX volatility (especially in Asia-Pacific).

Sectors and Assets to Watch

• Defense: LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BAE Systems

• Commodities: WTI crude, Brent, gold, rare earths, industrial metals

• FX Pairs: USD/CNH, USD/RUB, USD/JPY (as safe haven), EUR/USD (for Eurozone security spillover)

• Cybersecurity: CrowdStrike, Palantir, Palo Alto Networks — likely to benefit as threat level from hostile state actors rises

Investor Takeaway

This is not just a military story—it’s an economic and supply chain realignment. Investors should prepare for increased defense spending, ongoing supply shocks in strategic commodities, and greater geopolitical-driven volatility in equities and FX. The cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is no longer incidental—it’s now strategic. Visit ForexLive.com for additiona views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• US and Russia agreed to measures for implementing agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine
• US will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides
• US and Ukraine agreed to develop measure for implementing agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine

The momentum towards a ceasefire is slower than anyone would like but it’s moving in the right direction.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There is a move to largely ignore falling US consumer confidence as it dwindles because of political uncertainty. We’re in an era where politics and the news cycle dominates feelings rather than real indications on wages and job availability.

That said, it’s been four straight months of a swan dive in US consumer confidence and that series is at the lowest since January 21. Worse yet the forward expectations measure is at the lowest in 12 years.

It takes a strong will to lean against that, especially as we near the April 2 Trump tariff date and a constant stream of headlines that indicate various rates and targets.

Canada is both a tariff target and a proxy for US/global growth. USD/CAD jumped to 1.4309 from 1.4280 on the consumer confidence headlines.

Similarly, we’ve seen AUD and NZD fall around a dozen pips as the US dollar rises following the data. The euro and pound have also lost most of today’s gains and USD/JPY is down nearly a full cent.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 0.657M revised prior to 0.664M
• New Home sales for February 0.676M vs 0.679M estimate
• New home sales Change MoM 1.8% vs -6.9% (revised from -10.5%) last month.

Details:

• Median sale price: $414,500, down -1.5% from Feb 2024 ($420,900)

• Homes for sale at end of February: 0.500 million units (vs Jan 0.496M)
• New home supply: 8.9 months at current pace (vs Jan 9.0 months)

• Regional breakdown was mixed:

  • Northeast: -21.4%

  • Midwest: +20.6%

  • South: +6.6%

  • West: -13.6%

Mortgage rates came down in February from above 7% to 6.74%

Recall that the existing home sales(which accounts for the vast majority of US home sales) released last week was better than expectations. In February 2025, U.S. existing home sales rose by 4.2% to an annual rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing expectations of 3.95 million ​Forexlive

The median existing-home sales price advanced 3.8% year-over-year to $398,400, marking the 19th consecutive month of price increases. Inventory levels remained steady at a 3.5-month supply, unchanged from the previous month. ​Forexlive

Despite the positive momentum, affordability challenges persist due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. The market continues to adapt to these conditions, with buyers and sellers adjusting to the current economic landscape. ​

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 98.3 (revised to 100.1)
• Present Situation Index 134.5 vs. 136.5 prior
• Expectations Index 65.2 vs 72.9 prior
• 12-month inflation expectations 6.2% vs 5.8% prior

This is a better indicator than the UMich survey but I think most of the market is at the point where they want to see signs of softening in the hard data rather than this.

That said, this is the fourth straight month of declines and goes back to January 2021, when the pandemic was still biting hard.

This is a better indicator than the UMich survey but I think most of the market is at the point where they want to see signs of softening in the hard data rather than this.

That said, this is the fourth straight month of declines and goes back to January 2021, when the pandemic was still biting hard.

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March,
falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since
2022,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at
The Conference Board. “Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’
assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly.
Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral.
Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about
future business conditions deepening and confidence about future
employment prospects falling to a 12-year low. Meanwhile, consumers’
optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the
past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy
and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of
their personal situations.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Services index -4 vs +11 last month
• Manufacturing shipments -7 vs +12 last month

Other details:

• Employment -1 vs 9 last month
• Wages 19 vs 21 last month
• Prices paid 3.75 vs 2.23 last month
• Prices received 2.34 vs 1.62 last month
• New orders -4 vs 0 last month
• Backlog of orders -1 vs -6 last month
• Capacity utilization -11 vs -6 last month
• Capital expenditures -7 vs -1 last month
• Services expenditure -18 vs -6 last month
• Finished goods inventories 3 vs 5 last month
• Raw materials inventory 8 vs 17 last month
• Equipment and software spending -1 vs 1 last month

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.