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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index for the week, comes in at 85.1

• prior week was 86.7

Perhaps the incoming RBA rate cut today will cheers folks up?

• RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points
• What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD through the RBA rate cut in the new day?
• Nomura expect a hawkish rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week
• Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp on February 18
• Market Outlook for the Week of 17th-21st February
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: RBA, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Canada, UK and Japan inflation

The Reserve Bank of Australia Statement is due at 2.30pm local time on the 18th:

• 0330 GMT, 2230 US Eastern time

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later.

The RBA rate cutting cycle hasn’t begun yet. Today’s the day! Well, that’s my call, which is a consensus one. Its not unanimous but it’s a widely held forecast.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD through the RBA rate cut in the new day?
• Pres. Trump on X: I will charge a reciprocol tariff. No more. No less.
• Geoplitics: UK Starmer: Future of Ukraine is and existential issue for Europeeop
• Taiwan is considering a $7 – $10 billion arms purchase from the US
• ECB Holzmann: There is some probability of the March rate cut
• German DAX closes at a new record
• UK Telegraph: Trump looking for $500B payback from Ukraine
• Keith Kellogg, US special envoy to Ukraine: Trip to Ukraine still being finalized
• Fed Bowman: Expect inflation to decline by upside risks remain
• Russia Ushakov: Talks with US/Russia have been in a business like mood
• More Harker Q&A: Labor market looks pretty solid
• Fed Harker: Current economy argues for steady rate policy for now
• France’s finance minister Lombard: France is doing its job on defense spending in Europe
• Canadian Securities (Canadians $3.77B vs1 $17.65B last month
• Canada Housing starts for January come in at 239.7K vs 252.5K est (annuallzed)
• It’s a holiday in the US today. No stock or bond trading.
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen holds firm in quieter start to the new week

A US holiday today. So the price action was limited.

At the start of the US session, the USD was mixed with the following gains/losses vs the major currencies showing:

• EUR +0.20%
• JPY -0.56%
• GBP, -0.06%
• CHF +0.27%
• CAD +0.07%
• AUD-0.17%
• NZD. -0.09%

At the end of the session the changes are currently showing:

• EUR +0.10%
• JPY -0.58%
• GBP -0.28%
• CHF +0.17%
• CAD +0.02%
• AUD -0.14%
• NZD -0.14%

The GBPUSD was the biggest mover in the U.S. session, showing strong bullish momentum. On the hourly chart, the pair broke above a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.2614 for the second time in two trading days. While Friday’s breakout failed, today’s price action suggests that buyers are maintaining control, keeping the pair above this level.

To sustain the bullish bias, the price must stay above 1.2596. A move back below this level would weaken the bullish outlook. However, as long as the pair holds above support, the next upside targets include a swing area between 1.2659 and 1.2670, followed by the falling 100-day moving average (currently at 1.2687 and trending lower).

A break above the 100-day moving average (the highest blue line on the chart above) would be a significant technical development, marking the first breakout above this level since November 2024. This would further reinforce bullish momentum and open the door for additional upside potential.

Although there was no economic data release released, feds Harker and Fed’s Bowman spoke

• Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated that the current economic conditions justify maintaining the Fed’s steady rate policy for now, with any future adjustments remaining data-dependent. While inflation has been sticky in recent months, Harker remains confident that it will gradually return to the 2% target within two years.The labor market remains balanced and strong, but Harker acknowledged uncertainties surrounding the impact of new government policies. Additionally, he flagged rising home insurance costs as a growing economic challenge and cautioned that inflation, while declining, still carries risks that must be carefully monitored.On the Fed’s balance sheet, Harker anticipates a quicker contraction in bank reserves and supports a transition toward an all-Treasury bond portfolio. However, he noted that the endpoint for the balance sheet wind-down remains uncertain. He also emphasized that liquidity conditions have not yet tightened enough to warrant an immediate halt to the process.
• Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that while inflation is expected to decline, upside risks remain, requiring greater confidence before considering additional rate cuts. She emphasized the need for patience, allowing time to assess the impact of new government policies on the economy. Although hiring has slowed, the labor market remains strong, with unemployment still below full employment estimates. Bowman also highlighted that wage growth remains above levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and high asset prices may be contributing to slower inflation progress. Additionally, she is closely monitoring supply chains and potential pent-up demand as further inflationary risks.

In other news, US Pres Trump reiterated that he would impose a reciprocol tariffs for countries that tariffed, imposed VAT on imported US products or that subsidized products.

EU leaders also met and are recognizing the new normal with regard to self defense. Trump is looking for $500B as payback for the US role in the Ukraine/Russian war.

In the new trading day, the RBA will cut rates for the first time in 4-years. For a view of the technicals in play in the AUDUSD through the rate decision, click here.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller is speaking on the economic outlook at an event in Australia

• before the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Macroeconomic Workshop

There are widespread expectations of a 25bp rate cut from the RBA today. It is not a unanimous expectation., The meeting is live.

• RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points
• What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD through the RBA rate cut in the new day?
• Nomura expect a hawkish rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week
• Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp on February 18
• Market Outlook for the Week of 17th-21st February
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: RBA, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Canada, UK and Japan inflation

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump outlines the recipricol tariff plan on X

The “Big Balls” from the Trump presidency are being inflated and put in the air:

1. Cut out government waste and make government efficient
2. Get paid back for defense of other nations
3. Get countries to foot their own defense (BTW we have some defense contractors that you might want to do business with to do that)
4. If you tarff, VAT, subsidize we will charge the same
5. Protect our common borders and stop fentanyl
6. China and Russia let’s de-nuclearize – or stop nukes. We each have enough to blow each up anyway
7. China stop fentanyl
8. Bulldoze and rebuild Gaza

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

, Or about Europe without euro UK PM Starmer:

• Future of Ukraine is an existential issue for Europe
• It is pressing that they now share the burden.
• Europe must play its role
• There much be a US backstop

He concludes by saying it is the only way to deter Russia.

Meanwhlle Danish PM says:

• We must ramp up military preparedness
• Must avoid spread of Ukraine war to more countries
• When asked about troop deployments in Ukraine, says we are open to discussing many things that still need to be clarified
• I see no signs that the Russians want peace.
• Need discussion in EU about fiscal rules..
• This was an informal meeting not for decision-making.
• Russia is threatening all of Europe now, unfortunately
• A fast cease-fire can give Russia the chance to mobilize again and attack Ukraine or another country in Europe

Polish PM Tusk says

• All participants in meeting on Ukraine at similar opinions to Poland on key issues.
• Realize that transatlantic relations are in a new stage.
• European partners realize time is come for greater European defense capabilities and spending.
• Spending on defense will not be considered in excessive deficit procedure
• Europe and US should collaborate closely.
• There should be no discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine, or about Europe without Europe.
• There are billions of euros in EU that can be mobilized for defense.

EU

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY has completed an up-and-down lap that took the pair from the close on Friday Feb 7 at 151.39 to a high last week at 154.79 and back down to the 151.39 level. The price is stalling at a swing area between 151.20 to 151.40 which is ahead of the double bottom from the February 7 low.

If that double bottom can be broken, and stay broken, the door opens for more selling this week that could take the pair to the 50% of the move up from the September low. That level comes in at 149.22.

On the topside, if the low area for 2025 can stall the fall again, a rotation higher can be restarted. However, it would take a move above, the cluster of MAs including the 200-hour MA at 152.468, the 200 day MA at 152.675, the 100-hour MA at 152.93, and the 100 day MA at 153.126 to ultimately swing the bias back to the upside.

The video above outlines the levels in play and shows why.they are important in trading today.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters is reporting that Taiwan is considering a $7– $10 billion arms purchase from the US.

IN the Trump administration, the theme so far is defense is available for sale, not just given away to maintain democracy.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Holzmann:

• There is some probability of a March rate cut
• He adds that decisions in favor of more cuts getting harder

The ECB has coverage from 4.4% to the current 2.9%. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points on January 30.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

European indices closed higher to kick off the new trading week, with Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB leading the gains.

The snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +1.26% to a new all-time high closing level
• France’s CAC, +0.03%. Highest close since May 2024.
• UK FTSE 100, +0.41%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.47%. Highest closing level since June 2008
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.92%. Highest closing level since December 2007

in other markets as European traders head for the exits:

• Crude oil +0.38% at $71
• Gold up $14.97 or 0.52% at $2897.01
• Silver up $0.15 or 0.44% at $32.26
• Bitcoin down -$700 at $95,441

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Daily Telegraph is reporting that US Pres. Trump is looking for payback from supporting Ukraine vs Russia:

• Trump’s $500B Demand on Ukraine: Trump has proposed a $500 billion “payback” from Ukraine, covering minerals, oil, gas, ports, and infrastructure, effectively granting the U.S. near-total economic control over Ukraine’s resources. A draft agreement, leaked from Kyiv, suggests 50% of revenues and new resource licenses would go to the U.S., along with a right of first refusal on exports.

• Kyiv’s Reaction & Concerns: The sweeping economic demands have caused panic in Ukraine, as they resemble war reparations imposed on defeated nations, surpassing those from WWII’s post-Versailles agreements. Ukrainian officials, while open to deals on rare earth minerals, were reportedly caught off guard by the harsh and binding nature of the contract.

• Strategic & Political Ramifications: Trump argues the U.S. has already spent $300B on Ukraine, though official numbers suggest $175B, with much spent domestically. He has warned Ukraine to accept the deal or risk being abandoned to Russia. Some see the move as a political ploy to reframe Ukraine as a financial asset rather than a burden, potentially ensuring future U.S. commitment.

• Feasibility of Ukraine’s Resource Wealth: While Ukraine is rich in lithium, rare earths, and shale gas, its actual economic potential is overestimated. Lithium prices have crashed, alternative battery technologies are emerging, and Ukraine’s shale fields face high extraction costs, limiting their strategic value.

• Ukraine’s Dilemma: Facing both Russian aggression and U.S. economic pressure, Zelensky is in a precarious position. With limited ability to meet Trump’s financial demands, he must choose between economic subjugation by an ally or continued military threats from Russia.

Sen. Lindsey Graham Munich at the Security Conference in Munich over the weekend that Ukraine should accept the deal saying: “If we sign this minerals agreement, Putin is screwed, because Trump will defend the deal,”

The revenue hunt is global and in full-court press mode.

Trump also wants Europe to foot the bill for their own defense which could be beneficial to US defense contractors. Meanwhile, at the same time US defense will go through its own rethink on defense spending.

His opening gambit to Russia and China is for a full de-nuclearization, arguing that the nations already have enough nuclear arsenal to destroy each other. Why spend more when the money can be used for other more important things.

There are big balls in the air, but the Trump theme will be “payback time”.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy to Ukraine says:

• Trip to Ukraine still being finalized
• When asked if US would provide backstop for European support, says “You take no options off the table”
• We are going to your discussion points from everyone
• No one will impose peace deal on Zelenskiy
• He and people of Ukraine will make that call.
• Our job is to facilitate security guarantees for Ukraine
• It is not reasonable to have everybody sitting at the table for Ukraine peace deal

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy criticized the US for speaking with Russia’s Putin before speaking with him.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.