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China’s new home prices showed no change in January compared to the previous month, highlighting the ongoing difficulties in the country’s property sector despite government intervention.

According to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics data,

• prices remained flat month-on-month, mirroring December’s result
• on a year-on-year basis, home prices declined by 5.0%, slightly improving from the 5.3% drop recorded in December.

Efforts to stabilize the market have intensified since the second half of last year, as policymakers introduced measures to support the struggling sector. The downturn, which began in 2021, was triggered by a government crackdown on excessive leverage among developers, leaving many unable to complete pre-sold projects or meet debt obligations. The resulting decline in home sales and weakened buyer confidence continues to weigh on the broader economy, underscoring the challenges in restoring stability to the real estate market.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian Wage Price Index for Q4 2024 :

+0.7% q/q, a miss but still solid growth

• expected +0.8%, prior +0.8%

+3.2% y/y, in line but down from the growth rate in Q3

• expected +3.2%, prior +3.5%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

While Japan’s December core machinery orders improved y/y there are a few caveats to note:

• the y/y at +4.3% was a miss on the consensus estimate of +6.9%
• the -1.2% m/m was a miss on the estimate also

Admittedly this is a volatile data series.

Its regarded as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months.

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s manufacturing sector showed signs of steady recovery in February, with sentiment improving for the second straight month, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey.

• The manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to +3, up from +2 in January, marking its highest level since November.
• Further improvement is expected in the coming months, with the index projected to rise to +5 by May.

This gradual recovery has been driven by stronger sentiment in the food and chemicals industries, as firms report some relief from surging material costs and a stabilization in the yen’s depreciation. However, not all sectors shared the optimism—industries like paper, pulp, and steel continued to struggle with deteriorating sentiment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in Japan’s service sector remained strong but edged slightly lower, with the index dipping to +30 in February from +31 in January.

• This level is expected to hold steady through May.

The construction and real estate sectors saw the biggest declines, as rising labor costs squeezed profit margins. Some business leaders also voiced concerns over potential economic headwinds, including the impact of U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump, escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions, and uncertainty in China’s economic outlook.

The survey results align with Japan’s latest economic data, which showed the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the October-December quarter—outpacing expectations—driven by strong business investment and a surprising uptick in consumer spending. However, uncertainties in global trade and rising domestic costs could pose challenges in sustaining this growth momentum in the coming months.

The Reuters Tankan survey was conducted between February 4-14 by Nikkei Research

• responses from over 230 large Japanese non-financial firms

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Will point teams to reestablish the functionality of their missions in DC and Moscow.
• Work remains, today’s meeting is the first step of a long and difficult journey
• everyone involved in Ukraine conflict has to be okay with solution to end it
• No one is being side-lined here
• EU needs to be involved at some point

Meanwhile, US national security advisor Waltz is saying:

• There needs to be a permanent and to Ukraine war
• there will be talked about territory and security guarantees
• Trump is determined to move very quickly
• No data has been set for Trump/Putin meeting.

The meeting between Russia and the US is upsetting to the EU/Ukraine. Zelenskiy is not pleased with the negotiations starting with Russia. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is also floating ideas of payback for US support from Ukraine as he leverages that card in his hand.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysts at JP Morgan say that Trump’s social media activity has
significantly declined in market-moving influence compared to his
first term.

JPM cite his 126
posts on trade and economics, saying that only 10% of them triggered
notable currency fluctuations. JPM says this is in contrast to the 60
market-moving tweets per week during the 2018-2019 trade wars.

JPM add that while
Trump’s overall market impact has faded, his tariff-related tweets
remain potentially market-moving. For example, his announcement of 25%
tariffs on Mexico and Canada led to a 2% drop in the peso and a 1%
decline in the Canadian dollar in late January. The Chinese yuan
reacted to trade threats, falling after Trump’s Fentanyl-related
tariff comments but recovering following positive remarks about a
conversation with President Xi.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump said he may not let Venezuela export oil and petroleum products via companies like Chevron

• “We’re looking at that now”

Less oil (like cutting it off from Venezuela) would, at the margin, support then price. However, there are a couple of things to keep in mind on this.

1. If Trump threatens Venezualan exports like this the response from Maduro could well be an offer to gladly accept back illegal immigrants from the US. That might appeal to Trumpenough that he doesn’t meddle with Venezualan experts.

2. Alternatively, and unlucky for Venezuela, Trump may have other sources of oil lined up, perhaps more from Iran if he can reach agreement on nukes with them, for example.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Venezuela President Maduro

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump announcing an announcement to come.

I wonder if this was a pre-empt/insider trade – a ramp into the cash close:

More:

• auto tariffs might be around 25%
• parma tariffs likely 25% or higher
• EU has been very unfair to us
• Talks with Russia were very good
• US won’t have to put any troops in Ukraine
• If Europeans want peacekeeping troops in Ukraine then that’s fine

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• NBC: Putin is not interested in a peace deal
• US February Empire Fed 5.7 vs -1.0 expected
• US NAHB housing market index for February 42 versus 47 estimate
• Canada CPI inflation YoY 1.9% vs 1.9% estimate. MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate
• SF Fed Pres. Daly: US economy is in a good place
• Silver Lake is near a deal for Intel’s Altera – report
• Toyota is supporting LG battery plant with $1.5 billion order
• Canadian election polls take a big turn as Mark Carney surges
• ECB’s Cipollone: Policy rates remain primary instrument for adjusting the monetary policy

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 0.2% to close record high of 6129
• US 10-year yields up 7.6 bps to 4.55%
• WTI crude oil up $1.04 to $71.78
• Gold up $37 to $2934
• USD leads, NZD lags ahead of RBNZ decision

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Six weeks ago it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives would win the 2025 election (it’s due in October or earlier) and Pierre Poilievre would become the next Prime Minister.

Then three big things happened:

1. Trudeau resigned
2. Mark Carney ran for leadership
3. Trump threatened Canadian sovereignty

Trudeau was way past his best-before date and widely disliked in Canada but this poll shows that presumptive Liberal leadership winner Mark Carney could get a fresh look. That shows that Canadians dislike Trudeau personally more than Liberal policies (though I’d argue they really dislike the immigration policy post-covid).

The other problem is that Poilevre wasn’t hard enough on Trump and took a soft line. That wasn’t what Canadians wanted to hear when they were blind-sided by Trump’s talk of annexation.

It’s all led to some real chaos and a Conservative Party that’s searching for a message. Poilevre polls very well with men and has been trying to soften his image with women but, unfortunately for him, Carney is almost a perfect foil as he scores well with women voters.

I still think that Conservatives win a majority as Trump’s attacks cool and Conservatives re-focus on domestic problems but it’s much more uncertain than I thought. If polls continue in this direction and Liberals win, I expect a negative reaction in the loonie. That said, Carney is still a decided shift to the right from Trudeau and isn’t someone that markets would be fearful of.

As for the timing of an election: Carney is riding high and he promised to call an election immediately if he wins the leadership race on March 9.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

One thing that’s been floating around in my head in a comment that President Trump said two weeks ago when he signed the fresh ‘maximum pressure’ executive order to halt Iran oil exports.

“This is one that I’m torn about,” Trump told reporters in the Oval
Office. “Everybody wants me sign it. I’ll do that. It’s very tough on
Iran,” he said.

That struck me as strange, you can watch it here.

This order is similar to the one he signed in his first term that curb Iran’s oil exports and he was much more enthusiastic the first time.

This time Trump called it ‘historic’.

“Hopefully we’re not going to have to do that much,” he said.

He talked about making a deal but it had a clear objective.

“They can not have a nuclear weapon, with me it’s very simple. They just can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “I think they’re close, they’re too close.”

Iran is probably more determined than ever to get one.

Trump is someone who has consistently been against war but he’s also very close with Netanyahu and Iran was considerably weakened in Palestine and Libya. Trump and Netanyahu could see this as an opportune time to strike and that’s something that would seriously upend the Middle East and spike oil prices. It could also explain Trump’s eagerness to make a deal in Ukraine because it would ease Russian oil flows.

WTI crude oil is up $1.06 to $71.77.

Meanwhile, the world of natural gas is much simpler. Today it’s simply that forecasts show a cold winter staying cold in the US and that led to a rise back above the $4 level.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There were several reports over the long weekend suggesting that Intel could be split up and sold off. That has fresh traction with a report from Bloomberg that Silver Lake is near a deal for a stake in Intel’s Altera.

Intel bought Altera in an all-cash deal in 2015 worth $16.7 billion. Currently, Intel’s market cap is $115 billion but that comes after a 40% rally in the past week on breakup speculation.

Silver Lake is a Silicon Valley private equity firm that has made landmark deals on Dell, Skype, Alibaba, Broadcom and NXP Semiconductors so it knows the space. None of this is a big surprise as reports in January said Silver Lake was in the running.

In any case, INTC is up 13% today and edged further higher after the latest report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.