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• Urge US to stop threats and blackmail.
• If US wants to solve issues through dialogue, it should stop exerting maximum pressure.

There are reports that the US is now pressuring its trading partners to limit China deals amid the tariff negotiations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It just gets messier and messier. Reuters is now reporting that Nvidia has kept some of its China customers in the dark despite being informed about new restrictions to its H20 chips about a week ago, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

Nvidia disclosed that US officials had informed the chipmaker on 9 April that H20 chips would require and export license for sales to China. This before the announcement here yesterday.

But even with that knowledge, Nvidia’s China sales team reportedly did not appear to be informed ahead of the announcement. And major Chinese cloud companies were still anticipating deliveries of Nvidia’s H20 chips by year-end, unaware of the impending restriction.

I guess we’ll have to see what Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance will have to say about all this. They are after all the more prominent players in the space that had been stepping up orders for H20 chips to maintain an edge over its AI comptetitors.

In any case, it seems like this move will be pushing customers in China to move towards Huawei’s chips as the alternative. So, they stand ready to benefit the most from that if this persists for longer.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s a summary of the other calls for 2025 on China GDP:

• ANZ: 4.2% (previously 4.8%)
• Citi: 4.2% (previously 4.7%)
• Goldman Sachs: 4% (previously 4.5%)
• Morgan Stanley: 4.2% (previously 4.5%)
• UBS: 3.4% (previously 4%)

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.8%
• Core CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y expected
• Prior +3.5%

The readings are more or less in line with estimates, with the headline being a touch softer than expected. The market was pricing in ~80% odds of a rate cut for next month, so this won’t do anything to derail that considering the other factors in play.

Looking at the details, services inflation (in core terms) did show some slowing as it went down from 5.0% last month to 4.7% in March.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not looking good for the dollar again with both the euro and franc pretty much erasing losses from yesterday already. EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.1345 while USD/CHF is down 0.9% to 0.8150 levels and threatening to fall back to the Friday and Monday lows.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.5% to 142.50 while the commodity currencies are holding a slight advance against the greenback today. AUD/USD is seen up 0.1% to 0.6348 despite the negative risk rhetoric in play.

In case you missed it, the US moved to ban Nvidia from selling its H20 chips to China earlier here. That’s the big headline weighing on the risk mood but also there’s still no signs of any progress towards a Trump-Xi call. And so, the dance continues. All the while, markets will be left to think about the economic pain and ramifications from tariffs.

As for the dollar itself, there are a multitude of reasons why it is continuing to fall out of favour in this period.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• US government has indefinitely banned Nvidia from selling H20 chips to China
• US chip equipment makers calculate Trump tariffs could cost them more than US$1bn a year

S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% and Nasdaq futures down 1.6% as we come to terms with the headline above. US-China tensions continue to boil and that remains the biggest wildcard for trading sentiment at this stage. As things stand, there’s no indications of either side coming to the negotiating table still.

The thing about all of this is that with each passing day, market players will really have to think about the ramifications of all these tariffs and restrictions. It is clear that all of this is going to have a negative impact on the global economy. But I reckon there is still some quarter in the market that is hoping that things don’t go too far, so as to not worry about thinking at all.

However, even with this just lasting two to three months there is going to be a major hit to the economic landscape. And just like any earthquake, the aftershocks are also still something to be wary about. There might be trade deals but it might not be as simple as turning on and off the tariffs button. If the 10% reciprocal tariffs do stay, that’s still a major blow. And this is not even discussing what is happening with China at the moment.

I will admit that I myself may not even have a full grasp of the extent of the pain this could have on the global economy. But it’s all about reading sentiment when it comes to trading, and I would argue that you can’t just ignore the economic pain and fallout from the trade war even if things do not get much worse. Because at present, it is already bad enough.

I mean, hard data doesn’t lie. And this is one of the early indications of that.

As traders, we make decisions based on expectations. But this is one of those rare occasions where you can’t just factor in expectations on how the trade war is developing, but also expectations on what this could all do to the global economy even if just for the short-term.

Taking that into consideration, I’ll go back to the question that needs to be asked at this stage. Are we shifting more to a risk landscape of selling on rallies rather than buying on dips? Perhaps. With every day that passes, we are moving one step closer. At least until the turbulence goes away and we have more clarity on the damage that is done.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As for 2026, ANZ sees the Chinese economy expanding by 4.3% – down from their previous projection of 4.5%. Despite the downgrade, the 4.2% growth projection is still on the higher side. UBS is expecting a figure of 3.4% and Goldman Sachs 4.0%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Uncertain global economic landscape? US-China trade tensions still not looking to be resolved? Yuan devaluation on the cards? The US dollar struggling on a multitude of reasons? Markets continuing to look shaky and fragile? Those are just some reasons why gold is continuing to be favoured in this environment. And all of those factors are all playing out at one go. That is not to mention major central banks also still buying up the precious metal:

For now, the fate of gold will rest on US-China trade tensions for the most part. As long as that continues to persist and create more turbulence for the world economy and markets, it will continue to be hard to find arguments against gold considering the current landscape.

In just the first four months, gold has nearly matched its surging gains from 2024 already with it being up ~25% year-to-date.

You’re a wild night with a hell of a view,There ain’t no place, ain’t no place like you.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook today, Wednesday, April 16
• Morgan Stanley cuts outlook for China and Asia stock indexes
• China’s fighting words on Trump’s tariffs – world economic order has been severely damaged
• China Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%)
• China Q1 GDP +1.2% q/q (expected +1.4%)
• Tesla’s plans to ship Cybercab & Semi electric truck parts from China to US suspended
• China March new home prices -0.08% m/m (prior -0.1%) and -4.6% y/y (prior -4.8%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2133 (vs. estimate at 7.3272)
• Gold continues to surge, record high hit above US$3271
• Hong Kong suspends postal service for good bound for US – refuses to collect tariffs
• Australia March Westpac Leading Index – “softens as tariff chaos starts to weigh”
• US Treas Sec Bessent to meet South Korea’s fin min Choi next week to discuss trade issues
• ANZ raised its year-end forecast for gold price to $3,600 per ounce
• ANZ forecasts the RBNZ will cut its cash rate to 2.5% by October 2025
• Japan data: February Core Machinery Orders +1.5% y/y (expected -0.9%, prior +4.4%)
• Outlook for (US ) Empire State Manufacturing Survey to second lowest reading in 20 years
• U.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China (Wall Street Journal piece)
• Japan Reuters Tankan – Manufacturing index +9 in April from -1 in March
• JP Morgan says it turns bearish on base metals prices in the near-term
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says may need policy response to Trump tariffs
• Trump has launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals
• US government has indefinitely banned Nvidia from selling H20 chips to China
• US chip equipment makers calculate Trump tariffs could cost them more than US$1bn a year
• Moreon this: Fed independence fears continue to simmer amid Supreme Court labor board case
• ICYMI – BoA CFO says doesn’t believe we’ll see a recession
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs, draw expected
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 15 Apr: Another quiet day ahead of Chair Powell tomorrow.
• Trump says tariff pause because it’s a transition
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 16 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

A bombshell Nvidia developments, better-than-expected Chinese economic data and a cautious Bank of Japan Governor were the highlights of the session. Those and the surging gold price.

An early most jarring development came from Nvidia, which said it will take a US$5.5 billion charge this quarter after the U.S. government imposed an indefinite ban on exports of its H20 chips to China. Part of new licensing requirements for sales to China and other nations. The news sent Nvidia shares sharply lower in after-hours trade, dragging down S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.

Compounding the tech pressure, a Reuters report suggested that major three U.S. chip equipment makers each stand to lose around $350 million annually due to the Trump administration’s tariffs, while smaller players could also face millions in extra costs.

In monetary policy, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told Sankei that Trump’s tariffs have pushed the economy close to a BoJ ‘bad scenario’, warning that the central bank may need to respond if the impact worsens. While reiterating the BOJ’s data-dependence, he signaled a rate hike in May is now less likely (that’s my take on his remarks, you may find different), adding that both upside and downside risks to inflation are under close watch.

China’s Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year, matching the previous quarter and exceeding expectations. The surprise beat was accompanied by March data showing strong, much stronger than expected, retail sales and industrial output, though economists caution the full weight of U.S. tariffs has yet to be felt. Chinese officials are widely expected to unveil further stimulus measures in coming months to soften the blow and safeguard jobs.

On the Chinese currency front, the PBOC set the yuan reference rate at 7.2133, the weakest fix since September 2023. The damping today was once again greater than 1000 pips, the PBoC is still guiding CNY lower at a gradual pace.

• In the background, the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. is pressing over 70 nations to limit transshipment of Chinese goods as part of its broader tariff strategy, underlining the widening scope of trade friction.
• Hongkong Post announced it will suspend acceptance of parcels containing goods bound for the U.S., after Washington scrapped duty-free treatment and raised tariffs on such items, effective May 2. The Hong Kong SAR government denounced the move as “bullying” and “abusive.”

Regional equity markets mostly remained under pressure, Japanese, mainland China, and Hong Kong indexes lower.

Major FX was characterised by a weaker US dollar on the session. EUR, JPY, GBP all rising. AUD, NZD and CAD lagged.

As I update USD/JPY has dropped back towards 142.50, down from above 143.25 earlier in the session. Governor Ueda’s hints aat a May pause not holding back the yen today at all today it seems.

Gold soared higher, another record high price his today:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China stats bureau deputy head:

• Protectionism is rapidly rising globally, world economic order has been severely damaged
• Resolutely opposes US tariffs which are against economic rules, WTO rules
• High US tariffs will bring about some pressures on China’s trade and economy
• US tariffs will not change the long-term improving trend in China’s economy
• China has ‘rich’ policy toolkit to support the economy
• China is able, has confidence in dealing with external challenges and achieving economic growth target
• China stats bureau deputy head: macro economic policies will become more proactive this year

Earlier:

• China Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%)
• China Q1 GDP +1.2% q/q (expected +1.4%)
• Tesla’s plans to ship Cybercab & Semi electric truck parts from China to US suspended
• Hong Kong suspends postal service for good bound for US – refuses to collect tariffs
• U.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China (Wall Street Journal piece)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Solid data this.

Both retail sales and industrial output have surprised to the topside.

The obvious caveat is that the Q1 GDP data (see below) and the economic activity data for March both pre-date the huge increase in tariffs from Trump that will weigh on the Chinese economy going forward. China is expcected to boost stimulus to improve domestic consumption but the loss of a major expoirt marekt like the US will leave a hole in th external sector that will be difficult to fill.

We also had the GDP data:

• China Q1 GDP +1.2% q/q (expected +1.4%)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China economic growth data is mixed:

+1.2% q/q is disappointing

• expected +1.4%, prior +1.6%

+5.4% y/y is a beat

• expected +5.1%, prior +5.4%

Out at the same were ‘activity data’ for March 2025, with some very strong results indeed.

• China Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.