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We had some data from China over the weekend, see the first two lines in the screenshot below.

The focus of the session is the trade data from China, the time in the screenshot (0300 GMT) is only a guide). Exports are expected to have jumped higher as pipeline jamming ahead of higher tariffs played out.

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The info comes via a Reuters report over the weekend, though I thought I had seen similar late last week. ICYMi,

Shipments of seven rare earth elements from China have come to a standstill following Beijing’s move to tighten export controls, sources told Reuters. The halt began on April 4 after the government placed the materials—critical to defense, energy, and automotive sectors—under a licensing regime as part of its retaliation against U.S. President Donald Trump’s steep tariff hikes.

Exporters must now obtain licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, a process that can take weeks or even months. A China-based trader said clients are being told to expect delays of at least 60 days, though the wait could be longer, especially for U.S. buyers amid worsening trade tensions.

China accounts for about 90% of global rare earth production. Analysts warn that prolonged delays could deplete overseas stockpiles and disrupt global supply chains. Several Chinese sellers have already declared force majeure on contracts, and cargoes awaiting shipment that haven’t cleared customs are reportedly blocked from leaving ports.

While the move highlights Beijing’s leverage in global supply chains, it may also encourage long-term diversification efforts by foreign buyers seeking alternatives to Chinese supply.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that electronic products recently exempted from President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs may still be subject to new duties—just under a different framework.

In an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation, Greer clarified that the exemptions reflect a strategic shift from reciprocal tariffs to national security-based measures. “We have to be much more deliberate about the semiconductor supply chain,” he said, highlighting that ongoing investigations could lead to future tariffs on electronics, pharmaceuticals, metals, and other critical sectors.

Greer added that the move to the national security tariff regime requires formal reviews before duties are implemented. Despite the change in legal basis, the risk of tariffs on exempted goods remains. He also expressed confidence that the U.S. would secure meaningful tariff agreements with several countries in the coming weeks.

Greer noted there are currently no plans for President Trump to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

—

Earlier:

• Trump says 20% tariff on computers, and smartphones (so, not 145%)

Weekend:

• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so

Flip flops continue

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posting on his own social media app, Truth Social:

• is looking at semiconductors and the electronics supply chain as part of upcoming national security tariff investigations

This is in reference to the news over the weekend of a reversal on tariffs for electronics such as smartphones, PCs etc:

• Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
• Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
• Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so

Trump’s post:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday:

• EUR/USD 1.1294
• USD/JPY 144.08 …..
• GBP/USD 1.3066
• USD/CHF 0.8216
• USD/CAD 1.3867
• AUD/USD 0.6312
• NZD/USD 0.5823

I’ll be back with weekend news flow – plenty to chew on!

A waste of Monday coffee – gonna need all the caffeine we can get

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

From an interview on ABC:

• Electronics products will be part of upcoming sectoral tariffs
• Pharma tariffs also coming in the next month or two
• US has had ‘soft entrees’ through intermediaries with China on tariffs
• Not concerned about the US dollar

There were some real hopes building for a strong open in tech stocks based on the earlier tariff reversal but now we’re reversing the reversal. Of course, we could still have 5-6 more changes of heart in the interim.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The White House’s Stephen Miller — who is prickly at the best of times — is out with a tweet noting that 20% fentanyl tariffs still apply to China.

He wrote this in response to a Washington Post article:

Washington Post: maybe your reporters should try reading before posting. These products are subject to the tariff under the original IEEPA on China of 20 percent.

That’s a bit rich from a White House that’s changing the tariff regime daily.

In any case, it might curb some of the weekend enthusiasm. A White House spokesman also said that a Section 232 investigation on semiconductors is coming soon so it’s only a matter of time until more tariffs come for semiconductors.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Weekend info on what appears to be a reversal on tariffs from Trump, an easing on tech goods:

• Smartphones and computers are among the tech products exempted from Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods.

• The exemptions were outlined in new guidance from US Customs, issued late Friday.

• Other exempted electronic items include:

  • Semiconductors

  • Solar cells

  • Flat panel TV displays

  • Flash drives

  • Memory cards

Its not clear if such items might still face future tariffs, the rates are expected to be much lower than 145%.

The move is seen as a win for tech companies, particularly Apple, which manufactures most of its products in China.

This will be a tail wind for asset markets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The market is now fully priced for an ECB rate cut on Thursday and Deutsche Bank economists have got on board.

• The economic hit from reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions likely exceeds what the ECB was expecting
• Previous ECB assumptions that tariffs would boost inflation have been challenged
• Recent developments including higher EUR, lower oil prices, and greater risk of trade diversion are skewing inflation risks to the downside

Deutsche Bank believes the ECB will maintain a “meaningfully less restrictive” stance description despite the upcoming rate cut. They note that after 150bp of cuts, policy rates are getting closer to neutral, and combined with the view that inflation is returning to target, this has “an implicit dovish leaning.”

The bank has provisionally revised its GDP forecast down to +0.5% for 2025 (from +0.8% previously), though they maintain their 2026 forecast at +1.0%. They’ve also adjusted their inflation outlook, now seeing headline HICP averaging 2.0% in 2025 (from 2.1%) and 1.7% in 2026 (from 1.9%).

Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank maintains its terminal rate call of 1.5% by year-end 2025, with further cuts expected in June, September and December. They note that while the pause in higher US reciprocal tariffs has “essentially shut down any possibility of a 50bp rate cut in April,” the overall direction remains clear.

“This is a complex and dynamic shock,” Deutsche Bank analysts write, indicating the ECB will need to remain nimble as conditions evolve.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US stocks close at higher with major indices having their best week in 2024
• Gold has its best week since since the March 2023
• Crude oil futures settled $61.50. Key target near $63.64 held resistance this week
• Nasdaq held 200 week MA this week. Back above the 100 week MA
• Collins: Fed ‘absolutely’ ready to help stabilize markets if needed
• Trump said to have assured CEOs that a policy pivot on tariffs is underway
• Trump has made it clear he is open to a deal with China – White House
• Don’t drill baby: Baker Hughes sees US park 9 rigs
• European equity close: A stumble to the finish line in a volatile week
• Fed’s Williams: Tariffs will boost inflation to between 3.5% to 4% this year
• More from Musalem: I expect growth this year to be lower than trend
• US 30-year yields are on track for their largest weekly rise since 1982
• UMich April prelim consumer sentiment 50.8 vs 54.5 expected
• Hours before the latest China tariffs the Trump admin told them to request a Xi-Trump call
• Something that should worry US policymakers: The reaction function is now to sell bonds
• Fed’s Collins at this point the expectation is the Fed will need to hold for longer
• Fed’s Collins: We came into first quarter with solid economic conditions
• US March PPI +2.7% vs +3.3% expected
• The USD is lower following China’s increase in tariffs of US goods to 125%
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar woes continue, China hits back on tariffs
• Fed’s Kashkari: Our job is to make sure inflation expectations don’t rise

The U.S. dollar ended the day sharply lower, led by a -1.50% drop versus the New Zealand dollar, followed by a -1.35% decline against the euro, and a -1.03% fall versus the Australian dollar. The dollar’s weakest performance was against the yen, falling a relatively modest -0.60%.

The move lower was supported by a string of softer inflation readings, with today’s PPI Final Demand declining -0.4% m/m vs. +0.2% expected, while core PPI (ex-food and energy) fell -0.1% vs. +0.3% forecast. This followed tamer CPI data released yesterday, reinforcing expectations for easing price pressures.

Economists now estimate that Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, likely rose just 0.1% m/m in March, down from 0.4% in February. This would slow the annual Core PCE rate to 2.6%, from 2.8% previously — a move driven by falling prices for airfares, hotel stays, and used vehicles.

However, headwinds remain. Recent tariff increases on Chinese imports are expected to reignite inflationary pressure in the months ahead, potentially complicating the Fed’s path forward.

Yields soar despite soft inflation

Despite the disinflation narrative, U.S. Treasury yields surged, reflecting lingering inflation concerns and perhaps positioning ahead of next week’s data:

• Daily changes:

  • 2-year: 3.962% (+11.7 bps)

  • 5-year: 4.161% (+12.4 bps)

  • 10-year: 4.493% (+10.2 bps)

  • 30-year: 4.875% (+2.7 bps)

• Weekly gains:

  • 2-year: +37.0 bps

  • 5-year: +45.4 bps

  • 10-year: +49.5 bps

  • 30-year: +46.2 bps

Stocks bounce back from deep lows

Despite rising yields, U.S. equities posted strong weekly gains, rebounding from sharp drawdowns earlier in the week. The S&P 500 had fallen as much as -21.35%, while the Nasdaq was down -26.83% at its lowest.

Mid-week, however, saw oversized rebounds:

• NASDAQ: +12.16% on Wednesday

• S&P 500: +9.52%

That rally helped the Dow (+5.07%) and S&P 500 (+5.85%) notch their best weekly performance since October 30, 2023, while the NASDAQ’s +8.10% gain marked its strongest week since November 7, 2022.

Fed’s Collins reassures, but remains cautious. Fed’s Williams sees inflation rising to 3.5% to 4%

Fed Governor Susan Collins added to the positive sentiment, stating the Fed is “absolutely” ready to stabilize markets if needed, reinforcing its role as a backstop during disorderly moves. However, she noted that the bar remains “pretty high” for preemptive rate cuts, signaling a continued cautious stance on policy easing.

She also addressed the recent U.S. dollar weakness, suggesting it may reflect expectations of slower economic growth, and added that it’s still too soon to assess whether Trump’s trade policies will disrupt capital flow dynamics.

New York Fed President John Williams warned that new tariffs could lift inflation to between 3.5% and 4% this year, adding significant uncertainty to the outlook. He noted the economy began the year on solid footing but expects growth to slow to just 1% and unemployment to rise to 4.5%–5%. Williams emphasized the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored and said a modestly restrictive monetary policy remains appropriate for now. His remarks contrast with market expectations for rate cuts, highlighting the Fed’s cautious stance in the face of rising trade-related risks.

Monday:
The week begins with China releasing its March Trade Balance data, offering a key read on global demand and export dynamics as trade tensions and tariff impacts remain in focus.

Tuesday:
A busy day featuring the RBA Minutes, which may shed light on the central bank’s inflation and rate path outlook. The UK Jobs Report (covering February and March) will be closely watched for labor market trends. In the eurozone, attention turns to Industrial Production data and the German ZEW Survey for April. Canada rounds out the day with its March CPI report, which could influence expectations for the Bank of Canada.

Wednesday:
Markets will digest a flurry of top-tier releases. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its latest policy decision. China will publish its Q1 GDP and March activity data, offering insight into the post-tariff economic landscape. The UK and Eurozone CPI reports are due, including the eurozone’s final CPI print for March. In the U.S., March Retail Sales take center stage. Lastly, New Zealand’s Q1 CPI will be released, relevant for RBNZ rate expectations.

Thursday:
Central bank decisions dominate the day, with both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Turkey’s CBRT scheduled to announce policy updates. Japan will publish its March Trade Balance, while Australia will release its March Jobs Report, offering fresh perspective on labor and inflation pressures down under.

Friday:
Markets in several regions will observe Good Friday, limiting liquidity. However, Japan will release its March CPI, which could still influence JPY direction into the weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing solidly higher and with the best gains the 2024.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 619.05 points or 1.56% at 40,212.71 points
• S&P index rose 95.31 points or 1.81% at 5363.36.
• NASDAQ index rose 337.14 points or 2.06% at 16724.45.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 gains 28.80 points or 1.57% at 1860.2047.

For the trading week:

• Dow industrial average rose 4.95%. It’s best week since a gain of 5.07% on October 30, 2023.
• S&P index rose 5.7%. That was his best week since October 30th 2023 when the index rose 5.85%
• NASDAQ index rose 7.29%. It’s best week since November 7, 2022 when the index rose 8.10%
• Russell 2000 rose 1.815%. That was it best week since 3.95% on January 13, 2025

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.