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I pray this war ends but Russia is in an interesting spot here. They can stall and it sounds like Trump would possibly turn to secondary sanctions if it falls apart but at the same time, he would drop military support for Ukraine, or at least limit it. If that’s the case, Russia could calculate it could win the war outright in time.
That second scenario would be bullish for oil prices, particularly if the US went hard on Russia secondary sanctions.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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