A good bet on what the country is that is near a trade deal with the USA

A notable detail from Howard Lutnick’s interview on CNBC today was that the US has a trade deal with one country ready to go — pending ratification from a country’s parliament and leadership.

That was followed up by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino who wrote that “word on Wall Street” was that it was India or South Korea.

Two things point to India:

1) A hint from earlier today

Earlier today Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they were one of the easiest countries to negotiate with because they have so many tariffs. That meant the US could ask for them to be taken down and the ask was relatively clear. With non-tariff barriers, it can get more difficult and complicated.

2) The structure of parliament

Because the Union cabinet in India can implement a tariff-cutting deal by executive notification that only has to be tabled in Parliament, not approved by a full vote, the ruling National Democratic Alliance can bring a U-S-India tariff package into force in a few weeks to a couple of months after signature. Because of the structure of government, opposition parties would have to actively defeat it, rather than passing it and the NDA have enough seats to block that path.

South Korea’s parliament is controlled by the opposition and it’s very contentious at the moment. Even with some cooperation, it would take 6-12 months to approve because of hearings, studies and public consultations. A previous US deal that wasn’t contentious took 5 months to approve, though you could argue the US could waive tariffs before approval if it was on track.

All told: Bet on India if you have to pick a spot.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.