NY Fed March one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.6% from 3.1%

This survey was done before ‘Liberation Day’

• 3-year inflation unchanged at 3%
• 5-year inflation down to 2.9% from 3.0%
• Households more pessimistic about jobs and future earnings
• Found accelerating food and rent expected
• Households more downbeat on finances and credit access
• Share of households seeing worse financial situation highest since Oct 2023
• Expectations for stocks to rise is at lowest since June 2022
• Median household spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S.
  unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped 4.6
  percentage points to 44.0%, the highest reading since April 2020

There is a clear pattern of worsening sentiment across many indicators but little evidence of it bleeding into hard economic data, though that often takes time.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.