French and Spanish inflation in focus in the session ahead

The dollar is keeping steadier so far on the day, with the antipodes lagging among the major currencies. EUR/USD is still hugging levels under 1.0800 with large option expiries in play while AUD/USD is seen down 0.3% to 0.6285 with month-end considerations in focus as well.

Meanwhile, gold continues to shine brightly as it races to a fresh record high and is up 0.6% to $3,076 currently. This note from Deutsche yesterday is also stoking some fears and is another reason for gold to stay underpinned in this uncertain market environment.

Looking to the session ahead, there will be quite a number of data releases to work through in Europe today. But the main focus will be on inflation numbers from France and Spain. The former has already been a comfort point for the ECB while the latter is slowly seeing core inflation converge to the 2% target. Barring any major surprises, the data might not be too compelling in shifting the ECB odds going into April.

As things stand, traders are pricing in a ~80% probability of a 25 bps rate cut next month.

In the day ahead, the US PCE price index and Trump tariff headlines will be the main things to watch out for. At the same time though, do be reminded to take into consideration month-end and quarter-end flows.

0700 GMT – Germany April GfK consumer sentiment0700 GMT – UK Q4 final GDP figures0700 GMT – UK February retail sales data0745 GMT – France March preliminary CPI figures0800 GMT – Spain March preliminary CPI figures0800 GMT – Switzerland March KOF leading indicator index0855 GMT – Germany March unemployment change, rate1000 GMT – Eurozone March final consumer confidence1000 GMT – Eurozone March economic, industrial, services confidence

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.