Traders increase bets on ECB rate cuts after the auto tariffs announcement

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 62 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• ECB: 56 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Following the announcement of 25% tariffs of auto imports, traders increased the expected easing from 51 bps to 56 bps.

• BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoC: 41 bps (69% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Following the slightly hawkish BoC Meeting Minutes, traders revised expectations a bit lower from 44 bps to 41 bps.

• RBA: 63 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ: 59 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 8 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 35 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.