Australian monthly CPI (February 2025) 2.4% y/y (vs. 2.5% expected)

February 2025 monthly inflation CPI data from Australia

Comes in at 2.4% y/y

• expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%

Trimmed mean 2.7% y/y

• prior: 2.8%

That headline result is encouraging. Its under the median estimate, under the previous month’s result, and under the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% target band. and the same as the previous month. The RBA and government have an agreement to target the midpoint, so coming in below that is a good result also.

The underlying measure, core inflation, which in Australia is the trimmed mean has dribbled lower for January also, Further below 3%, so that’s a positive.

Do bear in mind that the monthly figure doesn’t carry the weight of the official quarterly figure. For that we’ll have to wait until later in April. Still, January and February is what we have to go on for the quarter so far and those are looking good.

AUD/USD is barely changed, circa 0.6304.

At the margin this result will bump up the prospect of a nearer term RBA rate cut. I’m not holding my breath on that though.

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The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release (late in April).

• The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62 and 73 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, its not the full picture.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.