Oil Be There for You – Crude Prices Rise on Fresh Supply Disruptions and Better Data

Fundamental
Overview

It’s been a rough quarter
for crude oil as the market got hit by a wave of negative news. We had it all ranging
from higher supply expectations to lower demand fears amid tariffs uncertainty
and weakening economic data.

More recently, oil price
started to climb as the US imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian
oil on Friday. Trump has also threatened 25% tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan
oil yesterday.

This is all coming amid
some better-than-expected US data which is helping to alleviate growth fears. In
fact, yesterday we got a rebound in the US
PMIs and again, the most cited reason for weaker sentiment is tariffs
uncertainty.

The Trump’s April 2nd
“Liberation Day” could also mark a liberation from the uncertainty and improve
market sentiment.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish
momentum. The buyers piled in on the break targeting the key 72.00 resistance
zone. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the resistance to position for a drop into the 64.00 support with a
better risk to reward setup.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we broke above a strong resistance zone around the 68.00 handle
recently. That gave the buyers even more conviction to target new highs. If we
get a retest of the resistance
now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a rally into the 72.00 resistance. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price falling below the 68.00 support
to regain control and target a drop into the 64.00 support.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start
targeting a drop below the 68.00 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Consumer Confidence
report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with the US PCE data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.