Market Outlook for the Week 17th – 21st March

The week will start with the release of U.S. retail sales m/m data on Monday, followed by Canadian inflation data and U.S. building permits and housing starts on Tuesday.

Wednesday’s highlight will be the monetary policy announcements from both the BoJ and the FOMC and Thursday Australia will release employment change and unemployment rate data.

Also Thursday, key labor market indicators will be in focus in the U.K., including the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y, unemployment rate, and the BoE monetary policy announcement.

Switzerland will also see the SNB’s monetary policy announcement, while the U.S. will release unemployment claims data.

On Friday, Canada will publish retail sales m/m data. Additionally, FOMC member Williams will speak at the Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference in Nassau, with audience questions expected.

In the U.S., the consensus for core retail sales m/m is 0.3%, compared to the previous -0.4%, while retail sales m/m is expected to rise to 0.6% vs the prior -0.9%.

Last month’s retail sales data showed one of the largest declines in nearly two years. The drop was widespread across various sectors, with autos experiencing one of the steepest declines, followed by nonstore sales. Sporting goods also saw a significant downturn. Analysts from Wells Fargo suggest this may be a pullback after a strong holiday season in late 2024 rather than an indication of a broader slowdown in consumer spending.

For this week’s data, a rebound is expected, signaling that despite rising household debt, consumers’ overall financial health remains stable. Strong personal income growth continues to support moderate consumption growth, a trend likely to persist in the near term.

In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.6% vs. the prior 0.1%; for median CPI y/y, it is 2.7% vs. the prior 2.7%; trimmed CPI y/y is expected at 2.8% vs. the prior 2.7%; and common CPI y/y is 2.2% vs. the prior 2.2%.

Headline inflation (y/y) in Canada is expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.2%, marking the first time when it exceeds the BoC’s 2.0% target in over half a year. Both median and trimmed measures have shown signs of picking up, indicating that inflationary pressures are increasing.

The Canadian economy saw better-than-expected growth starting in late 2024 and continuing through this year, but concerns persist regarding escalating international trade risks and the effect that tariffs will have on prices.

In terms of monetary policy, the BoC is expected to continue cutting rates throughout the year while closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on inflation and the broader economy. Governor Macklem emphasized the need for a cautious approach, to balance cost pressures from tariffs with weaker demand.

At this week’s meeting, the BoJ is expected to keep rates on hold. The market currently anticipates that the BoJ will implement two additional 25 bps rate hikes in May and July, bringing the policy rate to 1.00%.

The Bank has been cautious about tightening, mainly due to uncertainty regarding economic recovery, potential concerns over global trade policy amid tariffs, and, not least, market volatility.

Analysts believe that economic conditions in Japan support further tightening in the coming months. Inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2.0% target, and price pressures persist due to ongoing wage negotiations.

At this week’s FOMC meeting, it is widely anticipated that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell is likely to signal a wait-and-see approach, as the U.S. economy is showing signs of cooling down.

While the labor market is softening and consumer spending is weakening, moderate economic activity suggests that a rate cut is not necessary for now. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s target, though core CPI recently printed at its lowest y/y rate since 2021.

At this meeting, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Expectations are that the median forecast will continue to reflect 50 bps in rate cuts by the end of the year, though there is a risk of 75 bps of easing.

If a third rate cut is introduced, analysts from Wells Fargo expect it to be performed in June, especially if the labor market continues to slow down. This would then be followed by cuts in September and December.

In Australia, employment is expected to increase by 31.4K in February, down from 44.0K in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%.

Despite the slowdown from January, a 31.4K rise would still indicate a resilient labor market. Employment gains throughout 2024 have largely been concentrated in the non-market sector, particularly in healthcare, education, and public administration. While some improvement has been noted in the market sector, progress remains uneven.

Analysts from Westpac expect the labor market to remain strong, though job creation is likely to moderate slightly compared to January’s robust growth. Seasonal factors played a role in recent employment fluctuations, as an unusually high number of individuals were classified as “unemployed” despite having jobs secured for February. This contributed to the unemployment rate rising from 4.0% to 4.1% in January.

At the same time, both employment and unemployment increased, leading to a record-high participation rate of 67.3%. In February, labor supply growth is anticipated to slow, which could result in a slight dip in the participation rate to 67.2%. Westpact analysts believe that as those temporarily classified as unemployed transition into jobs, the unemployment rate may decline back to 4.0%, reflecting continued labor market stability.

In the U.K., wage growth is expected to remain around 6%, continuing to challenge the BoE as labor market pressures prove more persistent than anticipated. Despite signs of a gradual slowdown in hiring, wage growth has not moderated as quickly as expected.

ING analysts expect earnings growth to ease gradually throughout the year, particularly if April’s increase in employers’ taxes leads to more job cuts. While hiring plans have declined sharply, redundancy figures have yet to show a meaningful rise, suggesting that labor market conditions remain relatively stable for now.

The latest consensus forecasts project a claimant count change of 7.9K, down from the previous 22.0K. The average earnings index 3m/y is expected at 5.8%, compared to the prior 6.0%, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4%.

At this week’s meeting, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged. For now, it is signaling a pace of one rate cut per quarter. With the most recent cut delivered in February, the market now anticipates the next one in May.

For Switzerland, analysts are divided on the likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut by the SNB, though market expectations are 75% skewed towards a reduction.

Some analysts point to Switzerland’s inclusion on the U.S. “unfair trade practices” list and the downgraded 2025 growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.2% as signs of rising risks from U.S. tariff policies. If the SNB cuts rates this week, it could put pressure on the franc. However, its safe-haven status may limit depreciation amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

In Canada, the consensus for core retail sales m/m is 0.0%, down from the previous 2.7%, while retail sales m/m are expected to decline by -0.4% vs. the prior 2.5%. According to RBC analysts, the anticipated drop was primarily driven by a sharp 9% decline in unit auto sales. However, this weakness was partially offset by higher gas station sales, reflecting increased fuel prices.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.