Why eyes are on today’s US consumer confidence report

The economic calendar gets a bit more lively today as the market remains off balance.

There is some creeping worry about the economy after a series of drops in consumer and business sentiment. Those ran head-long into early optimism following the election. It may just be a temporary blip due to all the turmoil in Washington but we’re not exactly past that theme.

So today’s top release will be the 10 am ET consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It’s a much better survey than the UMich report but both have struggled to capture turning points since covid. The consensus is 102.5 but a fall below 100 is feared.

That report is out at 10 am but first we will get some numbers on home prices for December at 9 am ET. That sector is certainly struggling and indications are worsening.

“Through the first half of February, many homebuilders we survey haven’t seen the usual signs of a spring sales lift (particularly among entry-level buyers). If the trend continues through the second half of February we may downgrade the whole entry-buyer segment to Slow,” writes Rick Palacios Jr from John Burns Research.

Then at 10 am ET with the consumer confidence report, we will also get the Richmond Fed. I was struck by how many comments there were about tariff uncertainty in the Dallas Fed survey yesterday.

On the Fed agenda we get Barr at 11:45 am and Barkin at 1 pm ET. I was struck by the hawkish tone of the ECB’s Schnabel today.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.