US Q4 advance GDP +2.3% vs +2.6% expected

• Final Q3 GDP was 3.1% annualized
• Final Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized
• Consumer spending: +4.2% vs +2.8% prior
• Durable goods: vs +7.6% prior
• GDP final sales (excluding inventories): 3.2% vs 3.3% prior
• GDP price index (GDP deflator): 2.2% vs 2.4% expected
• Core PCE (excluding food & energy): 2.5% vs 2.2% prior
• PCE price index: 2.3% vs 1.5% prior
• PCE services excluding energy and housing +3.3% vs +2.7% prior
• Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): -2.2% vs 4.0% prior

I highlighted the likelihood of a downside miss before the report and that’s what unfolded but it looks like the market was ahead of the consensus. Moreover, there are some cooler indications on the inflation side of this report, which should filter into tomorrow’s PCE report (adding downside risks for the dollar).

Contributors and subtractors:

• Consumption: +2.82% vs +2.48% prior
• Government: +0.42% vs +0.86% prior
• Net International trade: +0.04% vs -0.43% prior
• Inventories: -0.93% vs -0.22% prior

I’ll be curious to see how that government number develops in the next four years.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.