ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD swing on news, JPY swing on … not a lot

• Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday, January 14, 2025 include Williams, Schmid
• Akazawa: BoJ’s considering rate hike & govmnt aim to exit deflation are not contradictory
• European Central Bank’s Lane speaking Tuesday, January 14, 2025
• Goldman Sachs expects more stimulus from China to counter Trump tariffs
• Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on Tuesday, January 14, 2025
• Still to come from China – PBoC and SAFE news conference on economic development
• USD/JPY gives back all of its Himino gain
• ECB plans to exit restrictive monetary policy by midsummer says Ollie Rehn
• BOJ’s Himino says rates will rise, but need to watch carefully for risks
• Elon Musk Eyed for Potential TikTok U.S. Takeover Amid Ban Threat
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1878 (vs. estimate at 7.3161)
• Bank of Korea expected to cut base interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on January 16
• ICYMI – Six EU countries call for lowering of G7 price cap on Russian oil
• Initial indications are the USD/CNY reference rate fix will dip a little today
• Japanese bank lending data for December 2024 +3.1% y/y (prior also +3.1%)
• Australian January consumer confidence -0.7% m/m to 92.1
• US December CPI preview – forecasts from 17 investment bank economists
• USD extends its losses – gradual tariff plan news the catalyst
• BlackRock remain ‘pro-risk’ but see three triggers that would change their view
• Australian weekly consumer confidence survey fell to 87.1 (prior 87.5)
• USD losing ground on the ‘gradual’ tariff story
• Trump’s tariff team studying gradual hikes of 2 to 5% per month
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Jan: Mixed USD.Stocks erase declines & close mostly up
• New Zealand Q4 business confidence jumped higher to +16% (prior -1%)
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 14 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Movement
during the session kicked off early with weakness for the USD as news
crossed that advisors
on Trump’s incoming economic team are considering a gradual
implementation of tariffs, increasing them incrementally each month.
The
headline to the news focused on a plan to raise tariffs by 2% to 5%
per month. The slower imposition is said to be aimed at strengthening Trump’s negotiating position while minimizing the risk of sudden
inflation.

The
USD dropped, with gains across the majors board for EUR, GBP, AUD,
NZD (that had found an earlier bid on better business confidence in
New Zealand in Q4 2024 – see bullets above) and more.

The
moves persisted for an hour or so. They occurred soon after the New York
close, the thinnest liquidity time of the 24-hour forex cycle (post-NY and pre-Tokyo, with only New Zealand and Australia active).

As
I update we have had some retrace but the dollar is net weaker on the
session.

You’ll
notice, too, in scanning your charts for the session here, a spike in
USD/JPY to 158.00 and thereabouts, with a quick retrace back to
under 157.50. Bank of Japan deputy governor Himino spoke. The main
thrust of his comments were not surprising, that the BOJ will
raise rates if its outlook/forecast
continue to be met.
He added that there
are risks both in
Japan and abroad
that require close
attention.

Himino
said the Bank of Japan will be debating a rate hike at its January
23/24 meeting given new quarterly growth and inflation forecasts.
There were plenty more comments from him covering hot topics such as
wage growth, the US economy and uncertainty as Trump began his term
with as yet unknown policy changes.

My
take on his remarks is that there is nothing of note that justified
the sudden down draft in the yen. I am attributing the move to what
I’ll call “market dynamics” or what interbank dealers out
there might refer to as jamming of stops. The almost just as quick
retrace of the jump is evidence enough for me.

USD/JPY:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.