The two stark scenarios for the US in 2025: 1. Inflation and rate hikes, or 2. Recession

Adam Posen is an economist and President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

He argues he expects the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2025, unless the Trump Administration’s aggressive use of tariffs and deportations triggers a recession.

However, it’s more likely that inflation will rise due to the combined effects of tax cuts, tariffs, and reduced migration.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.