US November core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected


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Core PCE (excluding food & energy):

  • Core m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% exp
  • Unrounded core PCE +0.1149% vs +0.274% m/m prior
  • PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior (revised to +0.2%)

Headline PCE:

  • Headline PCE +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected
  • Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected
  • Unrounded headline +0.1280% vs +0.238% m/m prior

Consumer spending and income for November:

  • Personal income +0.3% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month revised to +0.7%
  • Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month revised to +0.3%
  • Real personal spending +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
  • Savings rate 4.4% vs 4.4% prior

Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in 42.7 bps of easing in 2025.

On Wed, Powell said:

“Estimates based on the consumer-price index and toher data indicate
that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in
November and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories,
core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent.”

This is a surprisingly cool report across the board and the US dollar is selling off while bonds rally.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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