Keep a close eye on Canadian politics today. Trudeau could step down

It increasingly looks like we’re in the end-game of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. They’ve been far behind in the polls for two years and sinking further despite some last-ditch efforts to right the ship.

Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland left cabinet on Monday and fellow cabinet member Sean Fraser quit politics. Today, another cabinet shuffle is coming and there’s talk of 10 replacements.

There is also this rumour from a Canadian political strategist:

I’ve seen some better-connected people shut that down but the rumors are everywhere. On BNN on Thursday, former cabinet Liberal John Manley said this:

John Manley says “he wouldn’t be surprised” if
Canada’s Liberal party executives met in the near future and asked newly
appointed Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc to take over as acting
leader from embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and lead the party
into an election.

“You heard it here first –
just a hunch that I have,” said Manley, chairman of Jeffries Canada and
former finance minister and deputy prime minister under Jean Chrétien,
in an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Thursday.

Finally, the Globe and Mail reports this:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
is holding discussions with cabinet ministers and senior party leaders
about stepping down early in the new year, but close confidants have
walked away from these conversations with starkly different conclusions
about where he stands.

The Globe also reports that he was prepared to step down on Monday but was talked out of leaving.

I think the best-case scenario for the loonie is that Trudeau calls elections and takes his medicine and we quickly get a new government. If he steps aside and prorogues parliament while the Liberals hold a leadership race, it could stretch the timeline to summer.

Even in the second scenario, I don’t see how a different leader would change the outcome given the unpopularity of the Liberals but politics are tough to predict.

The cabinet shuffle will come at 11:30 am ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.