China official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expected

PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are due on Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 0130 GMT (which is 2030 GMT on Friday, November 29, 2024)

In October 2024, these indicators showed signs of stabilization, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors returning to expansion territory. Key highlights include:

Manufacturing Sector:

• Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 50.1 in October, up from 49.8 in September, marking the first expansion since April. A PMI above 50 indicates growth.

• Sub-Indices Performance:

  • Production Index: Increased to 52.0, the highest in six months, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity.
  • New Orders Index: Stabilized at 50.0 after five months of decline, suggesting steady demand.
  • Employment Index: Improved slightly to 48.4 from 48.2, though still indicating contraction.
  • Input Prices Index: Rose to 53.4, the first increase in four months, reflecting higher raw material costs.

Non-Manufacturing Sector:

• Non-Manufacturing PMI: Increased to 50.2 in October from 50.0 in September, indicating modest growth in services and construction activities.

• Service Sector: The sub-index for services rose to 50.1, up from 49.9, showing a slight expansion.

• Construction Sector: The sub-index decreased to 50.4 from 50.7, indicating a slowdown in growth.

Composite PMI:

• General PMI: The NBS Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.8 in October from 50.4 in September, marking the highest level since May, suggesting an overall improvement in economic activity.

October PMI readings suggest a tentative recovery in China’s economic activities, supported by government stimulus measures, though certain sectors continue to face headwinds.

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China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

• The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China’s private sector.
• Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey.
• Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China’s manufacturing sector.

The Caixin PMIs will follow next week.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.