Economists see Trump tariffs to cut China GDP by around 0.5% to 0.9% next year

• China 2024 GDP growth seen at 4.8%, 2025 GDP growth seen at 4.5% (unchanged from Oct poll)
• Trump expected to impose 38% tariffs on Chinese goods early next year
• Proposed tariffs may cut China’s 2025 GDP growth by around 0.5% to 0.9%
• China likely to roll out more stimulus measures to counter Trump tariffs

On the final point, roughly 83% of economists are of the view that China’s recent fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have had “very little impact on the economy”. That goes to show the sort of disappointment from the hype from the announcements leading up to the Golden Week, before the lack of follow through.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.