US July core PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.7% expected


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  • Prior was +2.6%
  • PCE core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (unrounded +0.161%)
  • Prior m/m +0.2%
  • Headline inflation PCE +2.5% y/y vs +2.6% expected (Prior +2.5%)
  • Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (prior was +0.1%)
  • Unrounded m/m +0.155%

Consumer spending and income for July:

  • Personal income +0.3% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2%
  • Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month +0.3%
  • Real personal spending +0.4% vs +0.2% prior

These numbers are a tad dovish and the US dollar edged down on a couple fronts but the moves were minimal. Overall, this report shows continued progress on inflation and is a green light for the Fed cut cut rates. The probability of 50 bps is at 30%, which is a tad lower than yesterday but will hinge on next Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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