Rate pricing for the ECB largely unchanged after the German statewide CPI data

Probability of a September ECB cut has increased to 100% from 99.4% prior to the data, while the odds of an October cut has only moved to 64% from 61% prior to the data. I think that deceleration should have seen a bigger bet on an October cut as well, but money markets have had a relatively mild response to the data for now.

Using a very simple composite measure it should put the total German CPI YY print close to 1.9%(ish). market expectations were for a print of 2.1%.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.