The
US
Dollar
(USD)
is
easing
firmly
on
Thursday
after
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
for
June
revealed
a
substantial
decline
in
inflation.
Special
remarks
for
the
retail
sales
which
shrank
even
by
0.1%,
meaning
that
US
consumer
is
no
longer
willing
to
pay
current
prices
for
goods
and
is
rather
awaiting
for
lower
prices
before
making
their
purchases.
Add
in
there
a
softer
print
for
housing
and
rent,
and
it
looks
like
the
Fed
measures
put
in
place
are
starting
to
pay
off.
On
the
economic
front,
most
important
data
for
this
Thursday
is
out
of
the
way,
and
focus
will
now
shift
towards
Friday
on
the
Producer
Price
Index
(PPI)
numbers
for
June.
Meanwhile
markets
will
want
to
hear
from
Fed
officials
that
these
numbers
are
what
they
are
looking
for,
and
should
trigger
a
more
dovish
response
from
the
Fed.
With
nearly
less
than
two
months
left,
the
initial
rate
cut
for
the
US
looks
to
be
locked
in
for
September.
The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY)
faces
a
key
pivotal
moment
with
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
release
for
June.
This
is
the
make-or-break
moment
for
September
rate
cut
prospects,
with
any
uptick
snapping
the
disinflationary
trajectory
that
would
mean
that
September
meeting
is
off
the
table.
So,
expect
markets
to
give
a
more
significant
probability
of
a
further
easing
of
the
DXY
than
a
stronger
US
Dollar.
On
the
upside,
the
55-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
at
105.14
remains
the
first
resistance.
Should
that
level
be
reclaimed
again,
105.53
and
105.89
are
the
following
nearby
pivotal
levels.
The
red
descending
trend
line
in
the
chart
below
at
around
106.23
and
April’s
peak
at
106.52
could
come
into
play
should
the
Greenback
rally
substantially.
On
the
downside,
the
risk
of
a
nosedive
move
is
increasing,
with
only
the
double
support
at
104.81,
which
is
the
confluence
of
the
100-day
SMA
and
the
green
ascending
trend
line
from
December
2023,
still
in
place.
Should
that
double
layer
give
way,
the
200-day
SMA
at
104.41
is
the
gatekeeper
that
should
catch
the
DXY
and
avoid
further
declines.
Further
down,
the
correction
could
head
to
104.00
as
an
initial
stage.
US
Dollar
Index:
Daily
Chart
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